2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Who’s fourth No. 1 seed? And hello, Virginia

The weekend is right here, and everyone seems to be speaking concerning the huge sport. No, not the one with all of the Taylor Swift cutaways. We’re, after all, referring to America’s favourite pastime: the Blind Resume Problem!

The annual custom on this area works like this: We current key team-sheet numbers for a bunch of unnamed packages, deleting total data to extend the diploma of problem. Then you definately faux to be on the NCAA Match choice committee and resolve which workforce must be seeded larger. No preconceived notions concerning the identify on the entrance of the jersey; simply plain ol’ physique of labor. (All stats are via Thursday afternoon; props to Bracketologists.com’s evaluate resumes perform for making this simple).

Let’s begin on the prime. Purdue, UConn and Houston stay the highest three total seeds this week, however who must be the fourth No. 1? (Word: Not one of the groups concerned in these challenges has a Quad 4 loss, so now we have excluded that class in all charts).

The predictive metrics (NET, KenPom, BPI) like Crew A, whereas the results-based ones (KPI, Energy of Document) would counsel Crew B. Crew C has an excellent street file, whereas Crew D’s resume doesn’t scream “No. 1 seed” in any class.

Reveal time: Crew A is Arizona, Crew B is Tennessee, Crew C is North Carolina and Crew D is Kansas. In fact, there’s extra context concerned right here than easy numbers. Tennessee misplaced to each UNC and Kansas, in an eight-day span in November. Kansas has wins over a pair of different No. 1 seeds — UConn and Houston (each at house). Arizona has 4 High-25 victories, three of them away from house, together with a real street win at Duke, however some shaky Pac-12 street performances. This desk was finished earlier than the Wildcats blew a 16-point halftime lead at Utah on Thursday however held on to win in triple additional time, giving them a sixth Quad 1 win.

That’s sufficient for Arizona to get the nod, barely, as No. 4 total. You would make a very good case for any of those 4 groups because the fourth No. 1 seed however in all probability not for anyone else outdoors this group.

OK, time for Spherical 2. Do you assume being on the choice committee is straightforward? Strive seeding these three groups:

The NET and KenPom rankings of this trio are mirror photos. Crew A has been higher within the first two quads (7-5, in comparison with 7-6 for Crew B and 7-8 for Crew C), whereas Crew C performed one of the best of three fairly crummy nonconference schedules.

Transfer that bus! Crew A is Texas Tech, Crew B is TCU and Crew C is Texas. Complicating issues additional, the Pink Raiders received at Texas however misplaced at TCU, whereas the Longhorns beat the Horned Frogs in Fort Price final Saturday.

We give the slight edge to TCU as a result of its metrics common barely outpaces Texas Tech (34.4 to 34.6 — razor-thin stuff) and it beat Houston and received at Baylor whereas taking the head-to-head assembly towards the Pink Raiders. Texas Tech’s win in Austin offers it a leg up on the Longhorns. However it’s a thorny vine, and we surprise how a lot the committee will dock every of those groups for these poor nonconference schedules even whereas enjoying within the nation’s gnarliest convention.

Lastly, let’s go to the bubble. See in the event you can type out who must be in and who must be out of the sphere of 68:

We added the High-25 wins class for extra context, and you may see that Crew D stands out right here. However what if we advised you that very same workforce misplaced its greatest participant midseason? Or that Crew B is only one sport above .500? Or that Crew C misplaced to Oakland and Delaware at house?

A lot of you in all probability have discovered what all of those groups have in widespread.

Crew A: St. John’s
Crew B: Villanova
Crew C: Xavier
Crew D: Windfall
Crew E: Seton Corridor

And we didn’t even embody Butler, which may be very a lot on the bubble. The Massive East amazingly has six groups bunched up on the cutline; the always-bananas league tourney in Madison Sq. Backyard goes to be much more unimaginable if this continues. For the file, now we have all of those groups within the area besides Villanova and Xavier. Nova’s 12-11 file and poor street efficiency are too laborious to forgive, whereas the Musketeers are approaching sturdy and have nonconference wins over Saint Mary’s and Cincinnati which might be paying dividends. Can’t wait to see how this performs out.

And thanks for taking part in America’s favourite sport.

Some extra notes on this week’s bracket, now simply 37 days till Choice Sunday:

• The ACC is again, child! Properly, sorta. After a couple of weeks of getting simply three bids, the league boosts that quantity to 4 this week due to Virginia’s resurgence. The Cavaliers have received seven straight to maneuver most of their metrics into the 30s. Clemson’s huge win on Tuesday at North Carolina solidified the Tigers’ at-large standing and improved the standard of UVa’s win on Saturday at Littlejohn Coliseum. With wins at Alabama and UNC and versus South Carolina, Clemson can afford a couple of extra hiccups and nonetheless make the sphere.

• Making their bracket debut this week: the Washington State Cougars! Wazzu (17-6) quietly has received seven of its previous eight video games, together with Quad 1 victories over Arizona, Colorado and at Washington, and although its nonconference schedule was mild, it did beat Boise State. This system hasn’t been to the NCAA Match since Tony Bennett led it to the Candy 16 in 2008.

• We didn’t enterprise into the feedback part throughout final week’s all-mailbag version, however we’ll be again to play alongside this week. Tee up these questions and complaints. We’re sport.

(Picture of Butler’s Andre Display screen and UConn’s Donovan Clingan: David Butler II / USA Right now)