2024 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Villanova hangs on for dear life

(Editor’s word: That is a part of the Bracket Central Collection, an inside take a look at the run-up to the boys’s and ladies’s NCAA Tournaments, together with evaluation and picks through the tournaments.)

Convention tournaments are right here and Choice Sunday is nigh, which suggests Bubble Watch is in full swing.

I’ll be making common, day by day updates to Bubble Watch from now till the bracket is revealed, so make sure you bookmark this web page and examine in all week as convention tourneys warmth up and the NCAA Event area comes into focus. As quickly as related video games in every convention wrap up, I’ll have contemporary ideas on what it means for these groups and every other bubble watchers impacted by the outcomes.

I’m in Kansas Metropolis overlaying the Huge 12 match, however I’ll do my finest to replace issues in actual time, and I’ll attempt to hop into the feedback and reply questions as effectively. Even the imply ones.

An essential word: an expanded “Motion” part for every convention will likely be refreshed as usually as vital, whereas the corresponding staff charts will likely be up to date every morning with correct information, NET rankings and different metrics.

We’ll additionally maintain observe of the variety of auto-qualifiers as they roll in, whether or not or not there are any “bid thieves” amongst them, and the way the mathematics is shaping up for the remainder of the sphere.

As a reminder for our staff designations, “locks” are for groups we imagine have wrapped up an at-large bid in the event that they don’t win the AQ. These colleges can’t transfer off that line (a precedent Wisconsin has appeared intent on breaking for the previous six weeks). “Projected to be in” is for groups that aren’t fairly locks however aren’t on the bubble, both; that checklist ought to shrink quickly because the week performs out. Similar for “on the bubble,” which particularly applies to these bubble groups which might be nonetheless alive of their convention tournaments. This week, we’re including the “ready recreation” class for groups which might be on the bubble however have been bounced and may now not impression their very own resume. The nearer we get to Sunday, the extra groups will get divided into the “locks” and “ready recreation” classes. And we promise it would all make sense.

Automated qualifiers (out of 32): 13 (1 doable bid thief – Drake)Locks: 33Projected to be in: 4On the bubble: 18Waiting recreation: 2

ACC

Locks:

North Carolina,

Duke,

Clemson

On the bubble:

Virginia,

Wake Forest,

Pittsburgh

Motion: Wake Forest’s win over Notre Dame on Wednesday doesn’t do a ton to assist its bubble standing, but it surely retains the Demon Deacons within the combine for one more day and units up a important bubble showdown with Pitt on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, Virginia Tech’s loss to Florida State early on Wednesday eliminates a fringe bubble staff that would have been disruptive if the Hokies made a run. The Hoos finish the common season with zero dangerous losses, however with out many high quality wins, both — away at Clemson and Florida on a impartial courtroom are the one Quad 1s. Virginia’s efficiency metrics outpace the predictive ones, which is the other for Pitt and may assist Virginia’s case between the 2, significantly if both loses on Thursday.

Huge Ten

Locks:

Purdue,

Wisconsin,

Illinois

Projected to be in:

Northwestern,

Nebraska,

Michigan State

On the bubble:

Iowa,

Ohio State

Motion: Wisconsin and Michigan State, two of the extra divisive groups from an at-large perspective, each completed the common season with a whimper.

The Badgers misplaced at Purdue and have gone 3-8 for the reason that begin of February, whereas the Spartans misplaced at Indiana and have dropped 4 of their final 5. That mentioned, Wisconsin — with a 12-12 file in Quad 1 and a couple of, no losses outdoors of that and a resume common (KPI and power of file) within the low 20s — is in even when it loses to the winner of Rutgers and Maryland on Thursday. Michigan State isn’t a lock, and a loss to Minnesota on Thursday would rile up the haters, but it surely stays within the area and above the bubble. Similar now for Nebraska, which completed the common season robust and joins Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern with a double-bye to Friday within the Huge Ten tourney. A win then can be worthy of a lock, however each must be in regardless.

Ohio State joins Iowa on the bubble, with the Buckeyes profitable 5 of their final six after firing Chris Holtmann, together with wins over Purdue, Nebraska and at Michigan State so as to add to Alabama on a impartial ground. Each Ohio State and the Hawkeyes are possible on the flawed aspect of the minimize line, so naturally, the 2 face one another within the No. 7 vs, No. 10 matchup on Thursday. Winner stays within the combine. Loser might be accomplished for.

Huge 12

Locks:

Baylor,

Houston,

Iowa State,

Kansas,

BYU,

Texas Tech,

Texas,

TCU

Ready recreation:

Oklahoma

On the bubble:

Kansas State

Motion: TCU nabbed a considerably deceptive Q1 win over a depleted Oklahoma squad on Day 2 of the Huge 12 match. The Sooners have been down three of their prime six scorers on Wednesday, together with main scorer Javian McCollum, who re-aggravated a shoulder harm final week. Regardless of the circumstances, the victory is sufficient to lock within the Frogs, who advance to face Houston on Thursday in Kansas Metropolis. Oklahoma ought to nonetheless be within the area as effectively, however we’re going to shift them to “ready recreation” in the meanwhile, no less than till we see how issues shake out with a number of extra of those bubble groups and potential bid thieves. There’s a great likelihood the Sooners change into a lock earlier than Choice Sunday, as long as nothing really loopy occurs. Elsewhere within the convention, Kansas State held on for a 78-74 win over Texas on Wednesday night to remain on the bubble, and Cincinnati is lurking after a 16-point comeback in opposition to West Virginia on Tuesday. If the Bearcats can get one other win late Wednesday in opposition to a banged-up Kansas squad that will likely be with out first-team all-conference stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., Cincinnati will nonetheless be beneath the minimize line, however re-enters the bubble dialog.

Justin Moore and Villanova don’t have any margin for error left. (Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Photos)

Huge East

Locks:

Marquette,

UConn,

Creighton

On the bubble:

Seton Corridor,

Villanova,

St. John’s,

Windfall

Motion: Extra bubble-on-bubble motion on deck within the Huge East match, the place Seton Corridor and St. John’s will battle on Thursday. Windfall and Villanova claimed must-win video games on Wednesday — Windfall over Georgetown, Nova simply barely squeaking one out over DePaul — however each want yet one more to really feel any sense of consolation on Choice Sunday. Nova, regardless of Wednesday’s uninspiring efficiency, is in higher form of the 2 with a 10-11 file in Quads 1 and a couple of (in comparison with 7-12 for the Friars) and wins at Creighton and over North Carolina and Texas Tech on impartial courts. The Wildcats face Marquette on Thursday and the Friars get Creighton. That comes after the Pirates and the Johnnies have their bubble problem in opposition to one another, with the winner possible getting elevated to the “projected in” line by advancing to the Huge East semifinals and the loser holding its breath till the bracket is revealed.

Pac-12

Lock:

Arizona,

Washington State

On the bubble:

Colorado,

Utah

Motion: The Buffaloes is not going to go away quietly, profitable at Oregon and Oregon State this week to face agency on the bubble, although highway wins over Washington and the Geese as the one Q1s, and simply barely. A victory on Thursday within the Pac-12 quarterfinals stays crucial, however Colorado is at present in higher place than Utah, which simply misplaced two in a row to the identical Oregon colleges and now wants no less than a pair victories within the Pac-12 match to have a shot at an at-large. The Utes, with robust wins over BYU and at Saint Mary’s, get their first likelihood to remain in rivalry in opposition to Arizona State on Wednesday.

Tolu Smith and Mississippi State have thrown away some golden alternatives. (Petre Thomas / USA At the moment)

SEC

Locks:

Alabama,

Tennessee,

Auburn,

Kentucky,

Florida,

South Carolina

On the bubble:

Mississippi State,

Texas A&M

Motion: Mississippi State is pushing the bubble limits with 4 straight losses to finish the common season, when profitable any of them may need been sufficient to maintain it comfortably within the area. Now the Bulldogs, who do have high quality dwelling wins over Tennessee and Auburn, might use a win in opposition to LSU on Thursday or else threat dropping to the “final 4 in/first 4 out” purgatory. Texas A&M is trending the other way, profitable three Q2 video games in a row over Georgia, Mississippi State and Ole Miss, together with earlier wins over Tennessee and Kentucky at dwelling and Iowa State on a impartial ground. The Aggies will want a second consecutive win over the Rebels on Thursday to remain within the combine — except a bunch of different bubble groups drop out earlier than that.

Mountain West

Lock:

San Diego State,

Boise State,

Utah State,

Nevada,

Colorado State

On the bubble:

New Mexico

Motion: Colorado State’s win over San Jose St. on Wednesday avoids a foul loss and cements the Rams as a lock for the NCAA Event, with a second-round matchup in opposition to Nevada set for Thursday. That’s 5 locks now for the Mountain West. New Mexico, nevertheless, stays in bubble bother. The Lobos misplaced three of their final 4 and haven’t received consecutive video games since January. The predictive metrics are nonetheless tournament-worthy, as is their KPI, which is within the low 30s. However the power of file and nonconference power of schedule aren’t sterling, nor are solely two Q1 wins. New Mexico appears to be wading within the “final 4 in/first 4 out” group, a destiny that hasn’t modified with Wednesday’s This autumn win over Air Drive.UNLV would have been on the bubble with a win over Nevada within the season finale, however a NET within the 70s, SOR within the 80s and three This autumn losses aren’t sufficient for consideration. The Mountain West tourney counts as dwelling video games when it comes to UNLV’s metrics, however a win over San Diego State on Thursday can be important, and the Rebs are on excessive alert as a bid thief candidate this week.

Robbie Avila and Indiana State can solely wait now. (Keith Gillett / AP)

Others

Lock:

Dayton,

Gonzaga

Projected to be in:

Florida Atlantic

On the bubble:

Princeton,

Memphis

Ready recreation:

Indiana State

Automated qualifiers:

Morehead State,

Longwood,

Stetson,

Drake,

James Madison,

Samford,

Charleston,

Wagner,

Oakland,

Saint Mary’s,

South Dakota State,

McNeese State,

Colgate

Motion: James Madison punched its ticket with a blowout win within the Solar Belt championship recreation on Monday night over Arkansas State, transferring the Dukes off the bubble and onto the automated qualifier line.

FAU strikes as much as the “projected in” line after ending the common season with a win over Memphis. The Owls have simply two Q1 wins (although one is a neutral-site over Arizona) and two This autumn losses, however they’re stable away from dwelling, and the SOS, NET and resume common are all robust. That’s the profile of a staff that must be in, significantly with a double-bye to the AAC quarterfinals. Indiana State is on at-large watch after shedding to Drake in a tightly contested MVC. It was the best situation for the league to get two groups in, and I feel Indiana State has legit at-large credentials. But it surely’s going to be an extended week for the Sycamores sweating this one out. Drake was beforehand on the bubble, however as a result of their automated bid may very well be the nail within the coffin for Indiana State specifically, it makes the Bulldogs a possible bid thief. Princeton stays on the bubble because the No. 1 seed within the Ivy League’s four-team convention match, which begins on Saturday with a semifinal matchup in opposition to Brown. Memphis joins as effectively, regardless of the loss to FAU. The Tigers are nonetheless on the skin wanting in in the meanwhile with simply two Q1 wins, however the efficiency metrics are higher than the predictive and places their resume numbers in keeping with fellow bubble groups equivalent to Iowa, New Mexico and Wake Forest.

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(High photograph of St. John’s guard Nahiem Alleyne and Wake Forest’s Hunter Sallis: Larry Radloff / AP and Grant Halverson / Getty Photos)