The 2024 NFL draft is full and early participant prop strains for a number of the rookies have been posted at ESPN BET. Whereas there are a variety of rookie place gamers who might make an instantaneous affect this season, after taking a look at my 2024 fantasy soccer projections, these are the props that stand out.
Let’s begin with some context: Twelve rookie QBs have thrown for 19-plus TDs over the previous decade. They averaged 244.7 rush yards and a pair of.5 rush TDs. Of the seven rookie QBs who rushed for 350-plus yards throughout the span, solely Kyler Murray reached 19 go TDs (he had precisely 20). The opposite six all completed with fewer than 12 go TDs.
This information is related to Daniels as he is an elite rusher (488-3,990-34 profession speeding line in school) and certain to transform a number of potential go TDs into scramble/speeding TDs.
Bo Nix below 17.5 go TDs (-115)
Clay’s projection: 16 go TDs
Solely 5 of the 53 QBs drafted after the sixth choose up to now decade have thrown no less than 18 go TDs of their rookie season. Nix, the No. 12 general choose on this yr’s draft, has a shot to begin Week 1, however that is not a lock. He additionally would not have a powerful supporting forged past Courtland Sutton.
If Nix can shortly show that he’s the true deal and stays wholesome, he ought to clear this quantity, however I might relatively guess on historical past right here.
Brock Bowers below 675.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay’s projection: 653 receiving yards
Imagine it or not, solely 9 tight ends in NFL historical past have greater than 675 receiving yards as a rookie. Three of these situations have come over the previous decade: Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts and Evan Engram.
Whereas Bowers’ pedigree is actually noticeable, solely two of these 9 tight ends (Pitts and Engram) have reached over this line. Bowers, the thirteenth general choose, will get yet one more sport than a number of the gamers on this record, however will battle for targets with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers and 2022 second-round choose Michael Mayer.
Add in an underwhelming QB room led by Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell and it is protected to count on Bowers to take a while to turn into a significant producer in Las Vegas.
Marvin Harrison Jr. over 1,000.5 receiving yards (-125) and Malik Nabers over 850.5 receiving yards (-115)
Clay’s projections:Marvin Harrison Jr. 1,116 receiving yardsMalik Nabers 1,032 receiving yards
I am putting these two collectively as a result of the proof for why these prop strains are too low is roughly the identical for each gamers. Check out the manufacturing of extensive receivers who, like Harrison and Nabers, have been chosen with a top-six draft choose over the previous decade: Amari Cooper (1,070 yards, 16 video games), Sammy Watkins (982, 16), Ja’Marr Chase (1,455, 17), Corey Davis (375, 11), Jaylen Waddle (1,015, 16).
It is a small pattern, however 4 of the 5 wideouts produced no less than 982 yards, with Davis (who missed 5 video games) the one one to fall brief. If we embody all rookie WRs throughout the 10-year span, 16 reached 851 yards, and 9 of them cleared 1,000. And a number of other of these performances got here previous to the league increasing to a 17-game common season.
The eight rookie WRs picked within the high 10 who appeared in 12-plus video games over the previous decade averaged a 24% goal share (seven of eight within the 22-25 % vary), which suggests each Harrison and Nabers — who’ve minimal goal competitors — shall be closely utilized proper out of the gate.
Rome Odunze over 725.5 receiving yards (-110)
Clay’s projections: 806 yards
Odunze was drafted No. 9 general by the Chicago Bears, so a majority of the evaluation utilized to Harrison and Nabers additionally works right here.
Eight of the 11 WRs picked within the high 10 over the previous decade reached no less than 726 receiving yards. John Ross, Mike Williams and Corey Davis failed to achieve that mark.
A roadblock for Odunze is Chicago’s loaded WR depth that features Keenan Allen and DJ Moore. Nevertheless, even with each Allen and Moore concerned, Odunze ought to obtain round an 18% goal share, which ought to permit him to push previous 800 receiving yards.
Final season, 42 extensive receivers reached 726 receiving yards, and 6 of them have been rookies. Odunze has a shot at surpassing this quantity even when Moore and Allen keep comparatively wholesome, and he figures to blow by it if certainly one of them misses important motion.
Xavier Worthy below 750.5 receiving yards (-125)
Clay’s projection: 685 receiving yards
Worthy is becoming a member of a terrific Chiefs offense, however this line is a bit too excessive. Not like the opposite extensive receivers talked about on this column, Worthy was not an early first-round choose — and that issues. Solely six of the 20 WRs picked between picks No. 20 and 32 over the previous decade reached 751 receiving yards.
Worthy joins a Kansas Metropolis offense that options tight finish Travis Kelce and customarily spreads the ball amongst its extensive receivers. Just one Chiefs WR has reached 751 receiving yards every of the previous seven seasons. The yr previous to the beginning of that streak (2016) can also be fascinating, because it was Tyreek Hill’s rookie season. Hill, to whom Worthy has drawn comps, led the Chiefs in receiving yards that yr… however with solely 593 yards.
With Kelce and Marquise Brown within the combine, count on the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes to show to a extra balanced offense, simply as that they had within the second half of 2023, signaling that this below is the appropriate play.