If I am inserting bets on a weekend, I am not taking a look at full sport spreads or totals. These are environment friendly markets which have been wager into all week. As a substitute, I am searching for the obscure. It is my specialty, anyway. It is what I construct statistical fashions round to attempt to discover an edge. If there’s a bonus to be discovered now, it is in small markets.
So come alongside for the experience and see how we fare diving deep into some last-minute Tremendous Bowl props.
Odds by ESPN BET.
Sport props
First Accepted Penalty: Any Different Penalty (+350)
That is the “subject” possibility, so we’re betting on it being one thing apart from: holding (+275), false begin (+325), offside/encroachment/impartial zone infraction (+325), defensive cross interference (+800), delay of sport (+1500), offensive cross interference (+2000) or no accepted penalties (+5000).
That leaves lots for subject, although! Assume: roughing the passer, intentional grounding, too many males on the sector, facemasks, unsportsmanlike conduct…and lots of extra. These “different” penalties made up 30% of accepted penalties throughout the league this 12 months and 29% for these two groups. Although some are particular groups penalties (and thus much less more likely to be first), I nonetheless suppose that is the worth decide. Plus: Invoice Vinovich’s video games had the bottom offensive holding charge (the favourite) of any referee this 12 months. He will not have his complete crew with him for the Tremendous Bowl, however the referee himself performs a task in holding calls.
Below 4.5 complete sacks (-150)
I need to be fading sacks on this sport, with Patrick Mahomes being one of many easiest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks (3.7% sack charge) and Brock Purdy higher than common and a very good likelihood neither staff pulls out manner forward. Sadly, a lot of the worth has been sapped from this prop: it was -130 as lately as Wednesday. I make it -162 so there’s nonetheless a bit of left, so far as my numbers are involved.
I additionally favored zero sacks within the sport as an extended shot at 40-1 (I make it 33-1) however on Thursday night the worth dropped to 25-1, so it is not a wager for the aim of this text. However I am mentioning simply in case the worth jumps again up or is on the market for extra, elsewhere!
Participant Sacks
Javon Hargrave below 0.5 sacks (-280)
See: above. Hargrave is an effective participant who had 7.0 sacks and a 16% cross rush win charge at defensive deal with – within the prime 10 for the place. However! With a view to get a sack within the Tremendous Bowl he has to chase down Patrick Mahomes, who has not simply the aforementioned 3.7% sack charge, however solely a 12.6% sack charge when pressured (each stats second solely to Josh Allen). I make Hargrave’s below -385.
Chase Younger over 0.5 sacks (+325)
Tremendous Bowl LVIII betting: 49ers-Chiefs
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I am clearly down on sacks throughout the board, however on Chase the quantity has gone too far. Younger’s enjoying time diminished when he was traded to the 49ers, and he was extensively criticized for a scarcity of effort on a Jahmyr Gibbs landing run within the NFC Championship Sport. Will that result in a decreased function within the Tremendous Bowl? Perhaps, however quietly Younger has really performed much more within the postseason, enjoying 67% and 78% of the staff’s defensive snaps within the divisional spherical and convention championship, respectively. So provided that, I am keen to function with my mannequin, which costs Younger at +208 to go over half a sack.
See additionally:
Arik Armstead below 0.5 sacks (-280)
Tackles
Javon Kinlaw over 0.5 tackles + assists (-140)
Kinlaw’s enjoying time has dropped within the postseason, however I manually adjusted the mannequin to count on postseason charge of play to proceed for the Tremendous Bowl – and I am nonetheless manner over right here, with 2.7 projected tackles + assists. Although the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, the 49ers are weaker on the bottom so the Chiefs will seemingly make an effort to run the ball no less than some. Additionally keep in mind: a lot of the season the 49ers have been favored and successful – leading to fewer rush makes an attempt from their opponents. However the Tremendous Bowl is predicted to be shut, once more that means extra potential rushes. Every a type of is a deal with alternative for Kinlaw, if he is on the sector.
See additionally:
Fred Warner below 8.5 tackles + assists (-135)
Defensive interceptions
Trent McDuffie below 0.5 interceptions (-1000)
That is the least horny wager I’ve put on this column all 12 months. However you already know what? We have been dedicated to following the information and my fashions all 12 months, so why cease now – even to probably win only a tenth of a unit? I make McDuffie’s below -1216 – I am a bit of decrease on Purdy’s interceptions possibilities (see beneath!) – and so I am rolling with it.
QB interceptions
Brock Purdy below 0.5 interceptions (-105)
I feel Purdy’s interception prop is influenced by recency: he threw an interception within the NFC Championship Sport and has thrown 5 picks within the final 4 video games. However I might slightly take the longer lens view: Purdy has not thrown an interception in 11 of 18 video games this 12 months. And whereas it is a shut unfold, Purdy’s staff is favored and that counts for one thing by way of interception avoidance. I make the below -125.
Move completions
Brock Purdy below 20.5 completions (-105)
The Chiefs have a very good protection however they actually have a very good cross protection. San Francisco ought to be capable of run on them and run lots, draining the clock and taking cross makes an attempt and completions from Purdy. Plus, I lean 49ers within the sport (as does the unfold) and in the event that they get out to a lead that may solely additional San Francisco’s want to run the ball. My mannequin forecasts 19.5 completions for Purdy.
Outcomes
Convention championship week
QB interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 items)Move completions: 1-0 (+0.9 items)Sacks: 2-2-1 (-0.5 items)Tackles: 1-2 (-1.3 items)Sport props: 0-1 (-1.0 items)General: 4-6-1 (-2.9 items)
Futures resolved (Will Anderson Jr. DROY, Guess in Week 5): 1-0 (+8.5 items)
2023 season
QB interceptions: 21-26 (-1.3 items)Move completions: 11-11 (-0.9 items)Move makes an attempt: 11-11 (-2.3 items)Receptions: 11-2 (+7.4 items)Sacks: 95-64-12 (+23.2 items)Tackles: 76-68-1 (+5.7 items)Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 items)D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 items)Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 items)Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 items)Sport props: 0-3 (-3.0 items)Award futures: 1-0 (+8.5 items)General: 230-212-13 (+28.2 items)
