The race for the No. 1 choose within the 2025 NFL draft is taking form on the halfway level of the 2024 season. Six groups have at the least a ten% probability at touchdown the highest choose, in line with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index projections.
We known as on our NFL Nation reporters to measurement up every of these bottom-tier franchises after 10 weeks. How did every crew lose management of its season? Are main modifications forward within the offseason? Then NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid spun it ahead and recommended how every crew would possibly use the No. 1 choose. Which groups want a franchise quarterback? And which prospects might match and fill an enormous want?
Let’s begin with the Giants, who at present have the very best odds on the No. 1 choose.
Bounce to a crew:CAR | JAX | LVNE | NYG | TEN
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 16.9percentFPI probability to earn high 5 choose: 62.7%
The place has it gone fallacious? There’s quite a bit to select from right here. The Giants are final within the NFL with 15.4 factors scored per recreation, they’ve given up probably the most yards per rush (5.3) and their particular groups have been horrible. That covers a great chunk of all three phases. It is onerous to win that manner.
Are main modifications on the horizon? All indicators level towards the Giants on the brink of bench quarterback Daniel Jones. That’s coming sooner somewhat than later. As for normal supervisor Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll, proprietor John Mara has mentioned they’re protected and that the crew is dedicated to them. However will that stick if the Giants end 4-13 and/or 0-9 at dwelling? — Jordan Raanan
What might they do with the highest choose? I just like the match for Miami quarterback Cam Ward. With Jones not more likely to begin for the Giants subsequent season (and maybe not with the crew in any respect), New York shall be looking for its new franchise signal-caller. Ward is an electrical playmaker who can create and make all of the throws. Daboll might assist him develop over time and restrict his decision-making errors. — Reid
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Schefter: I would guess Daniel Jones has performed his final snap with Giants
Adam Schefter predicts Daniel Jones might have performed his final snap as a New York Big.
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 16.2percentFPI probability to earn top-five choose: 64.1%
The place has it gone fallacious? They began seven completely different offensive line configurations within the first seven video games — a results of poor efficiency and missed evaluations on free-agent signings Chukwuma Okorafor and Nick Leverett — and it contributed to the fourth-worst offense in that span. A less-talented receiver group harm, too, as did the losses of heart David Andrews (shoulder), linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (torn pectoral muscle), security Jabrill Peppers (commissioner exempt record) and defensive deal with Christian Barmore (blood clots).
Are main modifications on the horizon? Nothing main. The largest change got here in Week 6 when rookie Drake Maye grew to become the starter over Jacoby Brissett. He has since elevated the hopes of the group along with his play and management. — Mike Reiss
What might they do with the highest choose? New England simply drafted a quarterback (Maye) in April, so I am Texas offensive deal with Kelvin Banks Jr. as an possibility. The safety in entrance of Maye is arguably the weakest spot on the roster. The Pats want a number of starters alongside the offensive line, and Banks would offer stability at deal with. He has the facility and fast ft mandatory to guard Maye’s blind aspect. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 15.4percentFPI probability to earn top-five choose: 59.2%
The place has it gone fallacious? It is a mess. The protection is likely one of the worst models within the NFL (final in yards per recreation and twenty sixth in scoring), and the offense cannot produce early in video games. In consequence, the Jaguars are taking part in from behind more often than not. Accidents have saved their greatest gamers out (most notably Christian Kirk), and Trevor Lawrence hasn’t elevated his play. Now Lawrence will sit out his second straight recreation Sunday due to a shoulder harm.
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Are main modifications on the horizon? Proprietor Shad Khan mentioned this was the very best Jaguars crew ever assembled and that he anticipated the playoffs in 2024. So given the 2-8 file, coach Doug Pederson and normal supervisor Trent Baalke are positively on the new seat. A call might come as early as their bye subsequent week on what occurs subsequent. Nonetheless, Khan has been affected person prior to now with huge choices. It is potential he might give them yet one more season to show it round. — Michael DiRocco
What might they do with the highest choose? The Jaguars could possibly be selecting on the high of the draft for the third time in 5 seasons. Quarterback is not an possibility for them after signing Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million extension. So how about Colorado receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter? The highest prospect on my draft board, Hunter would give the Jaguars a flexible possibility on both aspect of the ball; they need assistance at each receiver and cornerback. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 13.8percentFPI probability to earn top-five choose: 54.2%
The place has it gone fallacious? The Titans’ offensive line, particularly proper deal with, has been a catastrophe. The dearth of safety is obvious in third-and-long conditions, and the Titans cannot use growing routes as a result of there isn’t any time for them to be accomplished. They’ve scored 20 or extra factors solely twice this season.
Are main modifications on the horizon? There do not seem like huge modifications coming within the entrance workplace or with the teaching employees. Controlling proprietor Amy Adams Strunk made shocking strikes in firing normal supervisor Jon Robinson in 2022 and coach Mike Vrabel in January. Present normal supervisor Ran Carthon and coach Brian Callahan seem like protected for now. However do not be stunned if the Titans herald a brand new particular groups coordinator. And in the meantime, the jury continues to be out on quarterback Will Levis as the longer term starter. — Turron Davenport
What might they do with the highest choose? With the turnover issues of Levis, and Mason Rudolph being a profession backup, the Titans are one other crew that in all probability would use the highest choose on a franchise quarterback. All eyes shall be on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Ward. Sanders’ ability set would translate effectively to Callahan’s system due to his elite accuracy and decisiveness when he is protected. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 11.9percentFPI probability to earn top-five choose: 51.6%
The place has it gone fallacious? There are few silver linings for the Silver and Black. The dearth of a real No. 1 quarterback (Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond Ridder have all taken snaps) and the league’s worst dashing assault already price Luke Getsy his job as offensive coordinator, and issues aren’t wanting up.
Are main modifications on the horizon? With Getsy, offensive line coach James Cregg and quarterbacks coach Wealthy Scangarello all fired, all eyes flip to Antonio Pierce. The pinnacle coach reinvigorated the group as an interim final fall and earned the everlasting gig in consequence. But when issues proceed to spiral, it will not be onerous to think about one other complete rebuild round a high draft choose. — Paul Gutierrez
What might they do with the highest choose? Sanders would assist this crew quite a bit. After two years of uneven play at quarterback and 10 weeks of seesawing between signal-callers, the Raiders are a robust contender to draft a passer in April. Bear in mind, Las Vegas missed out on the highest six guys in 2024, after they all went earlier than the crew was on the clock at No. 13. Sanders is a perfect match; he has the poise, ball placement and charisma that matches completely with this group. — Reid
FPI probability to earn No. 1 choose: 10.0percentFPI probability to earn top-five choose: 57.1%
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The place has it gone fallacious? The preliminary poor play of quarterback Bryce Younger made for a tough begin to the season, however the greater subject has been accidents. Professional Bowl defensive deal with Derrick Brown sustained a season-ending harm within the opener. Then linebacker Shaq Thompson tore his Achilles. Outdoors linebacker D.J. Wonnum did not make his debut till final Sunday. A wholesome protection would at the least give Carolina an opportunity.
Are main modifications on the horizon? Second-round choose Jonathon Brooks ought to be prepared after the bye week, however working again Chuba Hubbard is taking part in so effectively that the rookie won’t get many seems. The looming query is that if Younger, who has gained two straight video games, will hold the beginning job or if Andy Dalton will get one other shot at it. The longer term at quarterback stays the main focus. — David Newton
What might they do with the highest choose? Younger has performed higher since being reinserted because the starter, and that in all probability retains the Panthers from drafting one other signal-caller. The Panthers are nonetheless within the rebuilding part, and they should add younger expertise with excessive potential throughout. Hunter would match, and Michigan defensive deal with Mason Graham has spectacular traits and plenty of upside. Pairing Graham with Brown would give the Panthers a rock-solid inside defensive entrance. — Reid
