The Week 13 schedule for the 2024 NFL season begins with an excellent slate of Thanksgiving Day matchups, and we’ve got you lined with what you might want to know for the vacation’s three matchups.
Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the largest keys to each sport, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every contest. The ESPN Analysis crew offers a giant stat to know and a betting nugget for every matchup, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X elements, and three analysts — Moody, Walder and Kalyn Kahler — give us remaining rating picks for each sport. Plus, we have a look at the most effective moments from every crew’s Thanksgiving historical past.
Let’s begin with the Bears and Lions, who will meet on Turkey Day for the twentieth time.
Soar to a matchup:CHI-DET | NYG-DAL | MIA-GB
12:30 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -10 (48.5 O/U)
Bears storyline to observe: Huge receiver DJ Moore went from averaging 9.8 air yards per goal in Weeks 1-10 to 1.9 after the Bears made Thomas Brown their offensive coordinator in Week 11. Moore caught all seven of his targets that got here behind the road of scrimmage towards the Packers and Vikings for 96 yards and a landing. He has generated 120 yards after the catch, which is a league excessive over the previous two weeks. Detroit’s protection has allowed 4.3 yards per goal on passes behind the road of scrimmage, which is the fourth-lowest common within the league, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Courtney Cronin
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Lions storyline to observe: On a brief week, can the Lions ship their first Thanksgiving victory since 2016? Though they’re off to their finest begin in 90 years, Detroit will attempt to restrict distractions in the course of the annual vacation sport, as coach Dan Campbell’s message this week was to relaxation, recuperate and give attention to the job at hand. The Lions have scored 40-plus factors in three straight residence video games and can attempt to proceed that tempo. “We’ve not gained on Thanksgiving shortly, and that is one thing we need to change,” quarterback Jared Goff stated following Sunday’s win over Indianapolis. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Lions would be the seventh crew up to now 40 seasons to play on Thanksgiving because the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. Every of the earlier six groups went on to win their video games.
Daring prediction: Bears cornerback Jaylon Johnson will intercept Goff. Johnson is having one other nice season, with 0.9 yards per protection snap allowed, nicely beneath the 1.2 common for outdoor corners (per Subsequent Gen Stats). — Walder
Accidents: Bears | Lions
Fantasy X issue: Lions working again Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s offensive line ranks twelfth in run block win charge, and the crew is third in dashing makes an attempt per sport. As David Montgomery offers with a shoulder harm on a brief week, count on the Lions to lean much more on Gibbs. The Bears’ defensive entrance ranks twenty sixth in run cease win charge, so Detroit’s floor sport may have a giant day. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears are 1-4 towards the unfold (ATS) of their previous 5 video games, and 4 of their previous 5 video games have gone beneath the entire. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Lions 28, Bears 21Moody’s choose: Lions 30, Bears 17Walder’s choose: Lions 27, Bears 20FPI prediction: DET, 76.2% (by a median of 11.0 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is the second-most-common matchup on Thanksgiving Day after the Packers and Lions’ 22 conferences. Chicago leads the Thanksgiving collection 11-8, together with three straight wins in 2018, 2019 and 2021. Detroit final gained in 2014, when Calvin Johnson recorded 146 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Caleb Williams enhancing beneath OC Thomas Brown … Cairo Santos accepts blame for ‘stink’ with blocks … How the Lions went from perennial underdog to sportsbooks’ worst enemy
4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DAL -4 (37.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to observe: The Giants are available reeling and on the verge of implosion. They’ve dropped six straight, and gamers referred to as their effort “tender” in Sunday’s 30-7 loss to the Buccaneers following the bye week. New York has been outscored 148-74 throughout that stretch and relied on Tommy DeVito, beforehand the third-string quarterback, final week. DeVito was sacked 4 instances and is now a protracted shot to play Thursday resulting from a forearm harm. That places Drew Lock in line for his first begin with the Giants. — Jordan Raanan
Cowboys storyline to observe: Can they put collectively a profitable streak? Can they really win a sport at residence? The Cowboys final gained two straight in Weeks 4 and 5 and have but to win a sport at AT&T Stadium this season. They’ve trailed by greater than 20 factors in every of their previous six residence video games, together with the playoffs, which is an NFL file. However that is the Giants, who’re coming off an embarrassing Week 12 efficiency. And the Cowboys have gained seven straight video games towards them at AT&T Stadium. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Giants defensive deal with Dexter Lawrence II had 9 sacks by way of Week 7, which was probably the most in NFL. He has had zero sacks since then, however yet another would make him the third Giants participant with double-digit sacks by way of 12 video games up to now 15 seasons.
Daring prediction: Malik Nabers will file 90-plus receiving yards. He is nonetheless rocking a 99 open rating by way of ESPN’s receiver scores, the best doable, which implies he is doing his job to get open — whether or not or not his quarterback can get him the ball. I feel Lock beginning is an effective factor (relative to DeVito) for Nabers, particularly after he complained about not getting a first-half goal final week. — Walder
Accidents: Giants | Cowboys
7:12
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Fantasy X issue: Cowboys huge receiver CeeDee Lamb. In regular-season video games with out quarterback Dak Prescott, Lamb has averaged 12.0 targets and 16.8 fantasy factors per sport. With Rush beneath middle, he ought to get loads of seems to be, particularly as a result of the Giants have allowed opposing quarterbacks to finish 70.8% of their passes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 when the Giants play groups with dropping information this season. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Cowboys 17, Giants 12Moody’s choose: Cowboys 26, Giants 19Walder’s choose: Cowboys 19, Giants 16FPI prediction: DAL, 52.6% (by a median of 1.2 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: In 1993, Cowboys defensive deal with Leon Lett tried to recuperate a blocked profitable discipline objective try. The ball was booted ahead by Lett and recovered by the Dolphins on the 2-yard line. Miami related on its subsequent discipline objective try and gained 16-14. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Eli Manning is destined for Corridor of Fame, however when? … Is the Cowboys’ wild win a stepping stone to a late playoff push? … Contained in the wild Cowboys win towards the Commanders
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Universo/Peacock | ESPN BET: GB -3.5 (46.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to observe: The Dolphins are winless beneath coach Mike McDaniel in temperatures beneath 40 levels — and temperatures in Inexperienced Bay are anticipated to drop beneath freezing. McDaniel stated his crew is nicely conscious of the narrative about its incapacity to play in chilly climate. However Miami is bringing some of the environment friendly offenses over the previous month into this matchup. No NFL crew has scored on the next share of its drives since Week 8 than the Dolphins (56.3%). — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Packers storyline to observe: The Packers may need lastly ironed out their crimson zone points. They scored touchdowns on all 5 of their crimson zone drives (together with three scoring runs by Josh Jacobs) in Sunday’s win over the 49ers after rating twenty seventh in landing share contained in the 20 earlier than the sport. As a result of the Dolphins rank seventh in crimson zone protection, this Thanksgiving contest would possibly present whether or not that is for actual or a fluke. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Packers compelled three or extra takeaways for the sixth time this season towards the 49ers, which is probably the most within the NFL. They scored 22 factors off turnovers, which is their most in a sport since Week 17 of 2022.
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Daring prediction: Dolphins edge Chop Robinson will file two or extra sacks. The rookie go rusher has actually been approaching sturdy these days. In Week 12, he led edge rushers in go rush win charge for the second straight week (42.1%). — Walder
Accidents: Dolphins | Packers
Fantasy X issue: Dolphins working again De’Von Achane. He’s essential on this must-win sport for Miami, because it seems to be to get again into the AFC playoff race. Why not lean on one in every of its most harmful playmakers? Achane has scored 20-plus fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 video games. The Packers’ protection has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per sport to working backs this season, making his dual-threat ability set particularly precious. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 8-3 outright and ATS in video games when it is 32 levels or beneath beneath coach Matt LaFleur, together with the playoffs. Learn extra.
Kahler’s choose: Packers 28, Dolphins 27Moody’s choose: Packers 34, Dolphins 28Walder’s choose: Packers 24, Dolphins 20FPI prediction: GB, 66.3% (by a median of 6.5 factors)
Thanksgiving Day throwback: That is simply the third time the Packers have performed at residence on Thanksgiving. The opposite matchups had been a 1923 win over the Hammond Execs and a 17-13 loss to the Bears in 2015. Towards Chicago, Inexperienced Bay was stuffed on fourth-and-goal with 22 seconds left in regulation. Learn extra.
Matchup must-reads: Tyreek Hill’s visitors citations dismissed after officers’ no-show … McDaniel hints at ‘tantrum’ to keep away from Calais Campbell commerce … Jacobs, dashing sport give Packers one thing to depend on
