The NFC South continues to be up for grabs late within the season for the third straight yr, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a authentic shot to win a fourth straight title.
The Buccaneers have taken benefit of a weak division the previous two years (9-8 winner in 2023, 8-9 winner in 2022). Although Tampa Bay has gained 4 straight titles, the Atlanta Falcons are lurking one recreation again. On Tuesday, Atlanta made an enormous transfer by benching quarterback Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix Jr. The New Orleans Saints have a slim probability of successful the division — even with a shedding document — and the Carolina Panthers can nonetheless play spoiler with two division rivals on their closing schedule.
This is a have a look at how the division race can play out within the ultimate weeks of the 2024 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
Likelihood to win division: 79.4percentChance to make the playoffs: 81.6percentFinal video games: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. SaintsRemaining schedule of energy rank: 27
Path to the playoffs: Since their Week 14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bucs have been in sole possession of first place within the division and management their future. They should preserve successful to take care of a one-game lead over the Falcons due to Atlanta’s head-to-head tiebreaker. Their Week 15 recreation in opposition to the Los Angeles Chargers was their hardest remaining opponent, they usually smoked them 40-17 for his or her fourth straight victory.
Greatest hurdles: Consistency has eluded them on protection, however they’ve discovered a successful system regardless of mounting accidents. Although none of their remaining three opponents have successful data, the Panthers did take them to time beyond regulation in Week 13. They’ve additionally had points with turnovers. Tampa Bay’s 20 misplaced turnovers are seventh most within the league. — Jenna Laine
Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Likelihood to win division: 20.7percentChance to make the playoffs: 29.0percentFinal video games: vs. New York Giants, at Washington Commanders, vs. PanthersRemaining schedule of energy rank: Tied for 31
Path to the playoffs: The Falcons are a recreation behind the Bucs however swept the season collection. So, if these two groups have the identical document atop the NFC South, Atlanta would win the division by way of tiebreaker so long as the Falcons aren’t tied with the Saints. The Falcons have to go 3-0 or 2-1 the remainder of the best way and hope the Bucs lose a couple of times. Atlanta places itself in a greater place to do that by transferring on from a struggling Cousins to Penix. A wild-card spot is feasible, however 4 non-division-leading groups have higher data.
Greatest hurdles: Successful their two residence video games remaining in opposition to the Giants and Panthers, who’ve a mixed 5 wins, is an absolute should. The street recreation in opposition to the Commanders (9-5) — who’re additionally combating for a wild-card spot — is a little more precarious, however not utterly unimaginable. Successful out and going 10-7 could be a profitable season for the Falcons. — Marc Raimondi
New Orleans Saints (5-9)
Likelihood to win division: 0percentChance to make the playoffs: 0percentFinal video games: at Inexperienced Bay Packers, vs. Raiders, at BuccaneersRemaining schedule of energy rank: 12
Path to the playoffs: The Saints actually wanted the Raiders to drag off an upset in opposition to the Falcons as a result of now they would want each the Falcons and Buccaneers to lose and for them to win out to win the NFC South — their solely path to the playoffs at this level. That is fairly unlikely contemplating how nicely the Buccaneers are enjoying. Even when it is shut within the final week, the Saints’ loss to the Panthers in all probability comes again to hang-out them.
Greatest hurdles: The Saints do not management their future. However even when that wasn’t an element, New Orleans goes to be at a major drawback. The group’s subsequent recreation is within the parts at Inexperienced Bay, with out beginning quarterback Derek Carr and probably with out beginning operating Alvin Kamara, who has a groin damage. Although rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler performed nicely for a half final week, that is nonetheless a troublesome job for a younger backup. — Katherine Terrell
Carolina Panthers (3-11)
Likelihood to win division: 0percentChance to make the playoffs: 0percentFinal video games: vs. Arizona Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at FalconsRemaining schedule of energy rank: 13
How they will play spoiler in opposition to different NFC South groups: By doing what they did just lately in losses to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, Bucs and Philadelphia Eagles — play nicely sufficient to win however recover from the hump for the victory. There is no plan to tank for a shot on the No. 1 draft choose. It is all about establishing a successful tradition for 2025. The Bucs received a style of that in Week 13 when an time beyond regulation fumble was the distinction within the Bucs’ win. In addition they received a style of how harmful Bryce Younger (298 yards, two whole touchdowns) could be.
What’s left to perform: Solidify whether or not Younger could be the franchise quarterback, if he hasn’t performed that already, so the entrance workplace can give attention to upgrading the protection through the offseason. The protection’s incapacity to cease the run has outlined the group’s seventh straight shedding season. Video games in opposition to Tampa Bay and Atlanta are excellent examples. The Bucs had 238 yards speeding of their time beyond regulation win in Charlotte, and the Falcons had a season-high 198 yards in Week 6. — David Newton
