There’ll quickly be an enormous job opening at Main League Baseball headquarters.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred stated Thursday that he’ll step down from the job when his present contract expires in January 2029.
Manfred, who’s in his tenth 12 months as commish, has overseen a interval of great change within the recreation. With the top of his time period in sight, how will he be remembered? What does he have left to perform? Who will take over?
We requested ESPN MLB consultants to weigh in on Manfred’s time in cost — and what the conclusion of his tenure would possibly convey for baseball.
What’s Manfred’s legacy as MLB commissioner up to now?
Bradford Doolittle: The pitch clock. That sounds reductive, particularly amid the lengthy checklist of issues which have modified and can change throughout Manfred’s tenure, however we have a tendency to recollect clear, apparent, concrete issues. It is exhausting to think about a change with a extra outsized impact on the game, each on the sector and as a product (I do not know what is going on to occur sooner or later, however I do not see a situation by which our collective consideration span truly grows bigger). Lopping off 24 minutes of recreation time over the course of 1 offseason was monumental and reversed one in all baseball’s most insidious developments. However the pitch clock was larger than only a rule change: It was an avatar for an emergent willingness to permit the sport to adapt to altering instances. This has by no means been a simple ask in baseball, a sport whose engrained methods of life have been a doubled-sided coin for many of its historical past. For baseball to develop, size of recreation was a basic difficulty that needed to be addressed and, beneath Manfred’s management, MLB did so with resounding success.
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Alden Gonzalez: We are inclined to put an inordinate quantity of weight on what’s freshest in our minds, a lot of Manfred’s legacy shall be decided over the following half-decade. Particularly, will probably be influenced by his efforts to regain the game’s reputation all through America and hold it from fading throughout the collective consciousness. For all his missteps as commissioner — the lockout, the inconsistent baseballs, the sign-stealing scandal, and many others. — Manfred has lately steered optimistic developments with regards to making baseball extra enticing to youthful followers who’ve more and more turned away from the game. You may see it in every thing from the electrical energy on the World Baseball Traditional to the rule modifications aimed toward quickening the tempo of play to his assertive dealing with of the RSN debacle. However lots extra must be achieved.
Jesse Rogers: It is sophisticated, however when you navigate round a number of the missteps — lots of which have been PR errors — he’ll possible depart the sport higher than when he discovered it. Maybe opposite to well-liked opinion (or at the least what many wish to declare on social media), Manfred did not “break” the game — it was declining when he took over. The historic rule modifications enacted final 12 months may very well be his lasting legacy relying on what the following few years convey — extra so than the Houston Astros scandal, TV blackouts or calling the World Sequence trophy a “piece of {hardware}.” With time, his run as commish will look higher.
David Schoenfield: The followers would possibly say not giving the Astros a harder punishment. The homeowners would possibly level to the ever-increasing worth of franchises. However I will agree with my colleagues and level to the 2023 guidelines modifications that gave us a faster-paced and extra thrilling on-field product. Baseball — as you may need heard — is reluctant to vary. The American League instituted the DH in 1973; it took the Nationwide League practically 50 years earlier than it lastly got here to its senses (do not argue with me on this). So making important modifications to the fundamental construction of the game is a monumental achievement — and it paid off with a 9% attendance enhance in 2023, surpassing the pre-pandemic totals of 2018 and 2019. If MLB can preserve that 70 million-plus annual attendance — greater than 29,000 followers per recreation — the game ought to stay robust nicely previous Manfred’s retirement.
What will we count on Manfred to do between now and 2029 to cement — or change — his legacy?
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Bradford Doolittle »
Doolittle: Underneath Manfred, MLB has sought to develop into the top of 1 mighty monolith atop the game: from the embracing of worldwide baseball, makes an attempt to tie within the draft with the Faculty World Sequence, efforts at rising the sport on the youth stage and, particularly, the ugly consolidation and takeover of minor league baseball. Anticipate that effort to proceed. Whether or not it is a good factor or a foul factor is difficult to say, however as issues like broadcast distribution and venue-related limbos are labored out, it could be shocking if MLB’s say in all issues baseball did not proceed to mushroom.
Gonzalez: There’s a lot on his plate, however one in all his largest duties is untangling the RSN mess and making baseball extra available to followers all through the nation. The league workplace’s final objective is to put the linear and digital rights for all 30 groups beneath a nationwide umbrella, raise the blackouts which have prevented so many followers from watching their favourite groups primarily based on the place they reside and usher in a significant streaming firm that may basically develop into the house for MLB. That course of was accelerated when Diamond Sports activities Group went out of business a 12 months in the past, and will probably be foremost in Manfred’s thoughts over the following 5 years.
Rogers: It is definitely attainable that no matter he does in these subsequent 5 years shall be our lasting reminiscence — that is human nature. On that finish, there are myriad points that would influence his tenure — particularly if there may be one other extended labor battle because it pertains to the following CBA in 2026 (and there is a good likelihood there shall be). Maybe looming even bigger within the years to come back is the game’s rising payroll disparity. Irrespective of what number of small-market groups just like the Diamondbacks make it to the World Sequence, it could’t be good for baseball that the majority of its highest-paid stars congregate on just some groups. Can Manfred repair that?
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Schoenfield: Should I agree with my colleagues but once more? I will additionally throw out growth and realignment. We all know MLB will increase in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later, more likely to 32 groups, which is able to necessitate some kind of realignment (Yankees and Mets in the identical division?) and maybe a brand new playoff construction. Whereas Manfred stated there is no such thing as a manner two new groups shall be in motion earlier than he steps down, there’ll hopefully be a plan in place by then and he’ll play a giant position in choosing the cities. Choosing the proper ones is not simple: Of the 4 growth groups since 1993, the Tampa Bay Rays have had success on the sector, however their stadium has been a catastrophe and attendance low; the Miami Marlins received two World Sequence by 2003 however have not often been aggressive since; the Colorado Rockies draw nicely however do not win; and the Arizona Diamondbacks have not completed larger than ninth in attendance since 2004. Possibly it takes generations to construct a fan base, however MLB definitely needs to keep away from the issues which have plagued the Rays and Marlins.
Who may be subsequent in line to take over the job when Manfred retires?
Doolittle: The identify that leaps to thoughts is Dan Halem, who’s to Manfred as Manfred was to Bud Selig. We’ll know if that is Manfred’s desire if Halem’s public profile is pushed over the following few years. Pondering of this from the attitude of what is splendid for the sport, you’d wish to see somebody who can at the least begin with a clear slate with the MLBPA, which was very a lot not the case when Manfred ascended to the throne. Even higher is that this thought from the world of issues that may by no means occur: How about we discover a commissioner by means of a course of that features the gamers and the homeowners alike? Sure, the sky is pink and filled with fairly birds in my world.
Gonzalez: As a substitute of a brand new candidate, I might wish to advocate a brand new construction. See, Rob Manfred is definitely actually good at his job. However we have to bear in mind what his job is — he represents the 30 crew homeowners, and he has made them some huge cash throughout his time as commissioner. And although I do imagine Manfred longs to do what’s proper for the sport, the actual fact of the matter is his job is to appease his bosses. These pursuits do not all the time align. Proper now we now have somebody who represents homeowners (Manfred) and somebody who represents gamers (Tony Clark). What the game wants is a 3rd particular person whose job is to uphold the most effective pursuits of baseball, merely and purely. Name her or him the chief baseball officer. The Crimson Sox have been by no means proper to make use of that title anyway.
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Rogers: A pair years in the past, Theo Epstein was the favored reply, however contemplating his possession trajectory — he began a brand new position as a senior advisor and part-owner of Fenway Sports activities Group earlier this month — I am unsure he would take the pay reduce. A Dave Dombrowski-type can be nice. If he have been 10 years youthful, he’d be a sensible choice.
Schoenfield: Manfred and Halem each come from the labor relations aspect of the MLB government department. If it isn’t Halem, it is more likely to be somebody with a big tv and leisure background. As Alden and Jesse identified, the RSN mess factors to the bigger income difficulty: These offers have been like printing cash, and that income stream is drying up. Determining the long-term way forward for how we’ll watch the video games shall be key to sustaining these franchise values (and, for the gamers, their excessive salaries).
What does MLB want from the following commish?
Doolittle: I might like somebody who’s a mixture of Manfred’s hyper-pragmatism and Bart Giamatti’s poetically infused love of the sport. I do suppose Manfred loves baseball, however for a lot of his profession, it has been exhausting to inform that’s the case. Clearly the place of commissioner is about as public-facing because it will get, and whereas the successor has to have a CEO-level talent set, it is also essential that he exudes ardour for the game. Such a factor would solely assist enhance relations with the gamers, in addition to the followers.
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Gonzalez: Extra tact and extra personability, notably with regard to relating with gamers. The disconnect between MLB and the MLB Gamers’ Affiliation, which reached a fever pitch throughout the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 and within the lockout that adopted the 2021 season, would possibly in the end be the most important stain on Manfred’s time as commissioner. It has by no means been extra vital for gamers to acknowledge the significance of promoting the game, and for that to occur, MLB and the MLBPA have to be in lockstep. Or, on the very least, not diametrically opposed. The brand new commissioner must do a a lot better job of bridging that hole and regaining belief with the opposite aspect.
Rogers: The hope is to search out the following Adam Silver, proper? Proper or unsuitable, the place throughout sports activities now has a significant public relations side to it. However on the lookout for somebody with talent there mustn’t trump give attention to labor peace and aggressive steadiness on the sector, each important to a wholesome recreation. At first, baseball should discover somebody who can proceed to navigate the one professional sport with out a wage cap whereas retaining the small-market groups aggressive. If that particular person brings just a little bit higher of a relationship with the gamers’ union, nice. However PR comes second. The well being of the game — on and off the sector — comes first.
Schoenfield: I will disagree just a little bit right here with Jesse. Whereas Silver has solid an admirable relationship with the NBA gamers, I am unsure it is smart to let the gamers captain the ship to the diploma they do within the NBA. As an example, it was the gamers who (A) banged the rubbish cans, and (B) let the sport decelerate to a three-hour slog and have been towards the foundations modifications that clearly improved the game. So, sure, work higher with the gamers, however that is a two-way road. The subsequent commissioner should educate the gamers that they, too, are the stewards of the sport’s future.
Is baseball higher off now than it was when Manfred took over? Will or not it’s in 2029?
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Doolittle: It in all probability is and doubtless shall be. The pitch clock has been big (although the continued use of the automated runner is a pox on the sport). Revenues continue to grow. Franchise values continue to grow. Groups appear to be following the Braves’ mannequin for ballpark improvement, one by which ballclubs are as a lot actual property builders as they’re baseball groups, and that is in all probability good for the game. We’ll see how issues work out in Kansas Metropolis and Chicago’s South Loop, to not point out St. Petersburg and Oakland/Vegas, however the mannequin appears established. The lingering drawback areas — broadcast distribution, venue limbo — are particular issues that may be addressed. The one factor that would blow it up is that if payroll disparity turns into so acute that homeowners in small and center markets begin squawking as soon as once more. Manfred nonetheless has one other CBA negotiation cycle to get by means of. If baseball efficiently will get to the opposite aspect of that, likelihood is the game shall be in a greater place than it was when he took over in 2015.
Gonzalez: We reside in an period of baseball with the very best strikeouts and the fewest balls in play ever. Elbow accidents proceed to run rampant, corruption amongst those that practice and signal youngsters within the Dominican Republic stays prevalent, and the regional-sports mannequin that has been so worthwhile to the game’s homeowners is blowing up proper in entrance of our eyes. Briefly, there are loads of issues. However you’ll be able to’t blame any of those squarely on one particular person. And to his credit score, Manfred has led some optimistic steps ahead lately. The pitch clock has been a godsend. The World Baseball Traditional has highlighted the sport’s globality. And MLB has carried out loads of outreach packages to convey baseball into America’s internal cities, a part of its objective to fight the dwindling Black illustration. This a good distance of claiming that in some methods the sport is best; in some methods it is worse. Possibly I am overly optimistic, however I see it trending in a optimistic course.
Rogers: Anybody who has lived by means of a four-and-a-half hour recreation in June that includes mid-division groups and 9 relievers would in all probability say sure. So there’s the reply. It is higher. If he can return the beginning pitcher to prominence, then all the old fashioned followers — yours really included — will reward him much more.
Schoenfield: I suppose that will depend on the place you reside. Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Astros followers would say sure. Pittsburgh Pirates followers? Not a lot. They have not made the playoffs since 2015. The highest grievance I see from followers on social media is payroll disparity, the assumption that within the NFL a crew just like the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs can construct a dynasty, whereas in baseball the Kansas Metropolis Royals — who received the World Sequence in Manfred’s first season as commissioner — now not have an opportunity. Whether or not that is true does not matter a lot because the notion.
