FOXBOROUGH, Mass. — New England Patriots proprietor Robert Kraft has been a part of 30 NFL drafts. He has pinpointed the thirty first as unprecedented for his franchise, calling it the “most anticipated NFL draft of our tenure.”
By no means in Kraft’s reign have the Patriots had a decide as excessive as they do that 12 months — third total, their highest since taking Patriots Corridor of Fame defensive finish/exterior linebacker Willie McGinest with the No. 4 total decide in 1994, months after Kraft bought the franchise.
What they do at No. 3 will play a serious function in defining the trajectory of a once-dynastic franchise. Kraft’s Patriots have spiraled downward the previous two seasons — from 10-7 to 8-9 to 4-13. Gone is known coach Invoice Belichick after 24 years with Jerod Mayo tapped as his successor.
The No. 3 decide sparks optimism for what Mayo mentioned he expects to be a journey to assist him “plant seeds and hopefully result in the subsequent dynasty.”
The chances are aplenty, and Patriots scouts view the 2024 quarterback class, together with offensive deal with, as deeper than some earlier years.
Mayo mentioned the plan might be “to take the perfect accessible participant for the largest want on the crew — offensive line, receiver, quarterback; decide your [choice].”
Or maybe one other crew presents the Patriots with a commerce supply too good to show down, offering an opportunity to parlay one choice into a number of picks for a crew that’s removed from one impression participant away from contending.
Ought to the Patriots take a quarterback at No. 3? Ought to they take the perfect non-QB accessible? Ought to they commerce down from No. 3 to garner extra property?
Every state of affairs comes with important danger and reward and the stakes could not be larger.
“Our crew has an incredible alternative to place itself proper,” Kraft mentioned.
Ought to the Patriots draft a quarterback?
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One high-ranking Patriots government just lately shared the group’s perception that with out the correct coach and quarterback, it will likely be an extended highway again to respectability.
Kraft says he believes he has checked the primary field with Mayo, and if the No. 3 decide checks the second, it is likely to be the right state of affairs — very similar to the 2008 Atlanta Falcons, who had their hopes pinned on drafting Boston Faculty quarterback Matt Ryan.
“It was fairly clear-cut for us,” recalled former Falcons coach Mike Smith, who like Mayo, was in his first season and a part of a collaborative pairing with common supervisor Thomas Dimitroff (Mayo is paired with director of scouting Eliot Wolf and a revamped personnel employees in New England).
“We have been in love with Matt by way of his talent set and what he introduced with intangibles. It is a state of affairs the place if there’s somebody that you just assume is a franchise quarterback, you higher take him. As a result of if you happen to do it proper, you are not going to be choosing within the high 10 once more for a very long time.”
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Ryan lasted to the third decide and rapidly emerged because the Day 1 starter, the Falcons made the playoffs, Smith was NFL Coach of the 12 months and Atlanta had a profitable document the next season — the primary time the franchise had back-to-back profitable seasons.
In the end, Smith posted a 67-50 document over seven seasons as coach, which included 4 playoff berths.
“All people understands: It was then, and it’s now, a quarterback-driven league,” Smith mentioned. “If in case you have the correct quarterback, you’ve an opportunity to achieve success and be round for some time as a head coach and administration.”
However Smith additionally cautioned that groups can fall into the entice of forcing a QB decide. Within the Patriots’ case this 12 months, they is likely to be choosing the third-best quarterback within the draft.
Is the QB class sturdy sufficient on the high to justify that method?
A number of ESPN analysts imagine so, with Mel Kiper Jr. slotting North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye to New England in his first projection, with quarterbacks going 1-2-3 (USC’s Caleb Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, Maye). Matt Miller envisioned a state of affairs through which Daniels turns into a Patriot. Area Yates focused Maye for the Patriots in his 1.0 mock.
Former Patriots security Devin McCourty, an analyst on NBC’s “Soccer Evening in America,” mentioned he believes that could possibly be the best-case state of affairs for the Patriots — assuming they’ve conviction in one among them as a franchise quarterback.
“New England getting a man within the constructing like that may change the outlook for each participant, each employees member, and provides them one thing to get enthusiastic about,” he mentioned.
Ought to the Patriots take the perfect non-QB accessible?
There’s one other means for the Patriots to create pleasure with out choosing a quarterback No. 3 total. New England might as an alternative decide the highest-rated offensive participant at a special place similar to Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. or Notre Dame offensive deal with Joe Alt.
That method — taking the perfect participant accessible — has labored nicely for the Detroit Lions beneath third-year common supervisor Brad Holmes. The Lions have been in an analogous state of affairs because the Patriots a couple of years in the past — near all-time low and in want of an infusion of expertise — and are actually coming off a visit to the NFC Championship Sport.
It was difficult to search out many who have been satisfied the Lions had their long-term reply at quarterback after buying veteran Jared Goff in a 2021 commerce with the Los Angeles Rams. However as an alternative of choosing a QB early previously three drafts, Holmes used high picks to assist Goff: offensive deal with Penei Sewell (No. 7, 2021), receiver Jameson Williams (No. 12, 2022), working again Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12, 2023) and tight finish Sam LaPorta (No. 34, 2023) amongst them. He additionally struck midround gold with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (No. 112, 2021).
Because the components stored coming collectively, Lions radio analyst Lomas Brown, the previous 18-year offensive deal with, took be aware of the impression it had on Goff.
“The important thing was to herald the correct items so Jared might take off and go to the subsequent stage, like he did. It actually confirmed this 12 months,” Brown mentioned. “There was solely a lot he might do earlier than that.”
Goff’s transformation bolstered Brown’s perception that groups typically drive their quarterback choices earlier than and/or with out constructing the required infrastructure round him.
“Take a look at a few of the misses over time on the high of the draft. There have been so many. To me, choosing a quarterback is sort of a crapshoot except it is any individual generational. I believe they overhype these guys and push them up the ladder an excessive amount of,” he mentioned.
“I focus extra on the opposite items, the issues you’ll be able to put across the quarterback. It is like having a very good basis. You possibly can’t construct a home on a rocky basis — it will not rise up lengthy.”
Pre-Mix draft take…
The Patriots shouldn’t draft a quarterback at No. 3 total. This roster is not prepared for a rookie QB and would simply set his growth again.
This is not Houston with a HOF left deal with and stable supporting solid. That is nearer to Carolina…and we noticed…
— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 20, 2024
So, might Mac Jones be the Patriots’ model of Goff?
It appeared the Patriots had their quarterback of the long run after taking Jones No. 15 total in 2021. He had a promising rookie season beneath the steering of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Patriots made the playoffs.
However high-ranking crew officers level to a number of Belichick choices over the subsequent two years — from offensive teaching adjustments to regrettable personnel strikes — that contributed to sabotaging Jones’ growth and crushing his confidence.
New offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt mentioned Wednesday that “the whole lot is on the desk” when requested if he might envision a state of affairs through which Jones is the 2024 starter. And a few throughout the group appear hopeful Jones could make a U-turn in New England, however that hardly appears unanimous, which implies Jones must win over many individuals.
“It’s important to give guys within the locker room a motive to imagine you’ll be able to win video games with whoever you’ve at quarterback,” McCourty mentioned. “You watch Kansas Metropolis, which was horrible at occasions this 12 months, and people guys nonetheless believed as a result of, ‘We’ve Patrick Mahomes.’ We had [Tom] Brady for a very long time in New England and it was the identical factor.
“This previous season once you watched New England, throughout the board, it was a sense of ‘It doesn’t matter what we do, we cannot most likely win due to what we’ve got on offense.’ I am not saying that was all Mac or [backup QB Bailey] Zappe’s fault, but it surely begins with who you’ve at quarterback.”
Ought to the Patriots commerce down?
If Belichick have been getting into his twenty fifth season because the crew’s coach and de facto common supervisor in 2024, the chances of buying and selling down can be larger than beneath the brand new regime of Mayo and the Wolf-led entrance workplace. Belichick was identified for wheeling and dealing, having traded down within the first spherical of every of the previous two drafts.
Nonetheless, as draft analysts assess the Patriots’ prospects, some say one other commerce right down to accumulate extra gamers cannot be discounted.
The Patriots personal one decide in every spherical. Utilizing these to enhance the roster is of course the No. 1 precedence, however the No. 3 decide is also a chip that would higher place the Patriots — who aren’t anticipated to contend within the AFC in 2024 — to do this and purchase precious future draft picks.
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The Miami Dolphins took that method in 2021, delivery the third total decide to the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 12 total decide, a third-rounder and first-round alternatives in 2022 and 2023. The 49ers paid the hefty worth to draft Trey Lance with the idea he would turn into their franchise quarterback.
Lance by no means emerged (he has since been traded to the Cowboys), however the framework of the deal nonetheless offers a roadmap for what the Patriots — who want much more than the third decide to spark their rebuild — might count on from a crew seeking to commerce up for a quarterback.
“It is at all times powerful to say earlier than free company what a crew ought to do within the draft, however the Patriots’ offense is way away. They’ve loads of expertise on protection and particular groups, however there are quite a lot of query marks on offense proper now. One offseason is not going to repair the whole lot,” mentioned ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid.
“I do not assume Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe is the man [at quarterback] shifting ahead. They want offensive tackles. They don’t have any weapons. I am not saying [trading down] is essentially the correct solution to go, however with so many holes, it is no less than one thing they’ve to contemplate.”
How strongly the Patriots contemplate that kind of state of affairs is a thriller at this level, partly due to the brand new construction of the entrance workplace and likewise as a result of the draft continues to be greater than two months away. The crew’s main course of up until now has been evaluating prospects, not essentially considering draft technique.
The chance of the Patriots probably buying and selling out of the No. 3 spot is that they lose out on a franchise quarterback — whether or not it is Williams, Daniels, Maye or another person.
However historical past exhibits the chances of three quarterbacks from one draft elevating to that stage is unlikely.
“All people needs a quarterback, however you’ll be able to’t drive it,” Smith mentioned. “Whenever you drive the decision-making tree, nevertheless you are weighing it, and it isn’t finished via the processes which might be in place, you are most likely going to overlook on it.”
