With pitchers and catchers reporting subsequent month, we have hit the ultimate stretch of the 2023-24 MLB offseason — and there are nonetheless loads of strikes left to be made.
The place will the highest remaining free brokers land? Will we see any extra blockbuster trades? Will the Boston Crimson Sox do one thing massive earlier than Opening Day?
We requested our MLB specialists to exit on a limb and make a daring prediction for a way this winter will wrap up.
Free company
Alden Gonzalez: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Josh Hader will not sign up January
Ranking the offseason’s marquee strikes
Whether or not it is a free agent deal that modifications the course of a crew’s future or a blockbuster commerce that has the league buzzing, our specialists are able to weigh in.
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They’re the highest place participant, prime beginning pitcher and, by a large margin, prime reduction pitcher remaining in free company, all worthy of nine-figure contracts — however all with actual obstacles standing in the way in which. Bellinger is a 28-year-old former MVP who possesses elite energy, velocity and protection. However he slashed simply .193/.256/.355 from 2021 to 2022, and among the underlying numbers behind his resurgent 2023 season — exit velocity, barrel share and hard-hit charge particularly — have alarmed executives. Snell gained his second Cy Younger Award final yr, however he did so whereas pitching past the sixth inning solely 3 times. Hader is arguably the sport’s finest nearer, however his dominance is happening at a time when groups are much less keen to spend exorbitant sums on one reliever. (The record-setting $102 million contract Edwin Diaz secured with the New York Mets final offseason is seen by many as a possible outlier, given his significance to a crew owned by the game’s richest proprietor.) Issues can change instantly this time of yr; all it takes is one crew stepping up its efforts for this prediction to be flatly unsuitable. However the cash Bellinger, Snell and Hader search — and, in some ways, deserve — does not seem like there in the intervening time.
Jesse Rogers: Scott Boras will fill a number of spots for one crew
Daring will come within the type of agent Scott Boras. He has a number of gamers nonetheless left on the board, together with Bellinger, Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Rhys Hoskins. His purchasers are inclined to congregate on groups — see Marcus Semien and Corey Seager for proof — and the tip of this offseason shall be no totally different. He’ll maneuver a number of gamers to at least one crew — be it the Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants and even the Chicago Cubs. That latter crew hardly ever does massive offers with Boras purchasers, so it could be a departure from the norm to signal a number of gamers of his. Nonetheless, the Cubs’ offseason has been so — can we are saying gradual? — since hiring supervisor Craig Counsell, that one thing exterior the norm could be a welcome reduction for followers.
David Schoenfield: The Mariners will signal Blake Snell
OK, we’re searching for one thing daring and outrageous, proper? I am holding out perception that the Mariners have been placing up a smokescreen all offseason and can nonetheless do one thing massive which may, , make the crew higher. As a result of all president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has executed up to now is actually shuffle round gamers and salaries with out bettering the crew (besides maybe for Mitch Garver at DH). He has at the very least created a little bit extra flexibility for future payrolls with the Robbie Ray-for-Mitch Haniger/Anthony DeSclafani commerce.
And whereas the Mariners cry poor, their payroll stays about $8 million under final yr’s — and Snell needs to pitch for his hometown crew. He raised the twelfth Man flag at a Seahawks sport. He was on the faculty soccer nationwide championship sport in College of Washington gear. He grew up idolizing Ken Griffey Jr. How can they make it occur? They’re going to must go larger than final yr’s payroll — god forbid — however they’ll backload Snell’s contract and provides him a decrease wage for 2024. The rotation could be Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with DeSclafani and Bryan Woo in reserve. That is how one can topple the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros.
Kiley McDaniel: Blake Snell will signal a three-year deal
I may very well be very daring and attempt to guess the precise phrases, however I am positive Boras will shoot for a particular objective that I am not conscious of; for example a mean annual worth report, by way of some mixture of convoluted opt-outs, choices and entrance/back-loading. The suspicion getting into the offseason is that Snell would get one thing like final winter’s Carlos Rodon deal — six years, $162 million — and after the Philadelphia Phillies (a rumored Snell touchdown spot) signed Aaron Nola, buzz has been constructing that Snell would be the big-ticket pitcher left when the music stops.
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I might think about the thought from Snell’s camp could be to get one thing like three years, $105 million with an opt-out or two, however assured cash if issues go sideways. That may give Snell a top-10 all-time AAV and an opportunity to hit the market at any time when he needs, which saves face sufficient for a two-time Cy Younger winner relative to expectations.
The Giants and Crimson Sox are the one two groups with any sort of buzz round Snell and each appear to be making an attempt to fill their pitching wants with out Snell in the identical means the New York Yankees stuffed their outfield wants, in order that Boras could not leverage their want into overpaying Bellinger. The Yankees might use one other starter, however Snell smells a complete lot like Rodon within the worst potential methods. You would invent a couple of touchdown spots, however there is not a pure one, particularly with Dylan Stop and Marcus Stroman accessible for what may be extra affordable costs. I feel Montgomery goes again to Texas for 9 figures and that makes the Snell puzzle exhausting to unravel, which is how I’ve landed right here.
Trades
Paul Hembekides: The Mets will commerce Pete Alonso getting into his contract yr
I do know, I do know. Alonso is as beloved as any Met since David Wright and possesses near-unprecedented energy (his 192 house runs by 5 seasons have him tied for third all time). However there is a new sheriff on the town and his identify is David Stearns. In his eight seasons as Brewers GM, Milwaukee used seven totally different Opening Day first basemen, together with Ryan Braun (2018) and Keston Hiura (2021), each of whom transformed to the place. In different phrases, Stearns has by no means prioritized first base. Except proprietor Steve Cohen intervenes, Stearns shall be extra inclined to commerce Alonso than prolong him, capitalizing on a market devoid of bats like his.
Bradford Doolittle: The Dodgers will commerce for Dylan Stop
Quantity that can outline 2024 for all 30 groups
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In actuality, I am unsure how daring of a prediction that is, for the reason that Dodgers purchase whomever they need. For me, this commerce match makes probably the most sense from the White Sox’s perspective among the many groups most rumored to be within the combine for Stop. My conception of the deal could be centered round infielder Michael Busch. He is too good a prospect to be referred to as superfluous, even on the Dodgers’ group depth chart, however he is additionally 26 years previous with no clear path to on a regular basis taking part in time in L.A. With the White Sox, he is the right-now on a regular basis second baseman and long-term double-play accomplice with Colson Montgomery, or maybe an eventual substitute for Yoan Moncada at third. It actually depends upon how — or if — Busch develops defensively, however his bat is sweet sufficient to play anyplace. The Dodgers can sq. the valuation for Stop’s two seasons of crew management by including a high quality younger starter and a catching or outfield prospect. I simply do not see one other membership as capable of comfortably meet Chicago’s wants.
Bonus Crimson Sox prediction
Buster Olney: The Crimson Sox will do one thing aggressive and costly
Crimson Sox chairman Tom Werner instructed reporters his crew was able to go “full throttle” on the time they employed Craig Breslow, and whereas Boston’s longshot try and signal Yoshinobu Yamamoto did not work out, there are many different funding alternatives accessible, from Snell to Montgomery to a potential commerce for Stop. If the Crimson Sox do not do one thing massive, Werner’s phrases will grow to be the spine narrative of their 2024 season. In the event that they battle to contend in a tricky AL East — as anticipated — then Breslow’s launch in his new job shall be sabotaged; as supervisor Alex Cora’s contract drifts towards expiration, the crew will once more be giving freely tickets to school college students in September. The Crimson Sox will make a giant transfer for a similar cause they spent enormous {dollars} on Rafael Devers: They haven’t any selection.
