If the 2024 NFL offseason might be remembered for something, will probably be the tempest of huge receiver contract negotiation. The season is mere weeks away, and we’re nowhere close to achieved. Maintain-ins persist for CeeDee Lamb in Dallas, Ja’Marr Chase in Cincinnati, and most importantly, Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco. The 26-year-old has but to swimsuit up for camp as his request to be traded has publicly unfolded over the previous few weeks.
I am no good at dissecting Instagram posts or sourcing contract particulars — I am going to depart each noble pursuits to their respective specialists. What I can do is attempt to reply some questions on Aiyuk, the participant: Simply how good of a large receiver is he, actually? And concerning the San Francisco group that’s attempting to maintain him within the constructing: Simply how badly do the 49ers want him?
Here is my learn on what Aiyuk means for the group he is attempting to depart, and the group that may purchase him, as this saga continues:
Leap to a piece:The most effective comp for Aiyuk’s spectacular 2023 seasonWhy is Aiyuk’s contract state of affairs so contentious?Sooo … ought to the 49ers commerce Aiyuk?
Simply how good is Aiyuk?
Contextualizing the greatness of an NFL receiver presents a a lot larger problem than you would possibly count on. The place is oversaturated with expertise, which warps our perspective.
Here is an instance: The Fifteenth-best quarterback within the league is somebody like Kirk Cousins or Jared Goff; the Fifteenth-best move rusher is somebody like Alex Highsmith or Rashan Gary. However the Fifteenth-best huge receiver is nearer to Mike Evans, who has produced 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, or Amari Cooper, who simply had 1,250 receiving yards on the Browns’ quarterback carousel final season. That is how good the place is. When Jeremy Fowler surveyed league personnel for his or her rating of the highest 10 huge receivers, a complete of 29 names received at the least one vote forged their method. The cream of the receiver crop has by no means been richer.
In Fowler’s survey, Aiyuk debuted at Tenth on the again of his finest skilled season: 1,342 yards on 75 catches with seven scores. Which may not look stellar at first brush — Tyreek Hill had 1,800 receiving yards final season — however it’s not the uncooked output that is spectacular. It is the effectivity.
Aiyuk averaged 3.3 yards per route run, which is the fourth-best quantity for a large receiver since 2010. Yards per route run is a secure metric that rewards a receiver for a number of issues: incomes quite a lot of targets on the routes he runs, catching quite a lot of these targets and getting quite a lot of yards out of these catches. Aiyuk was particularly good on the final one. A whopping 37.3% of his catches have been explosive performs, receptions that went for at the least a 20-yard achieve. That is the very best explosive play price for a high-volume receiver (greater than 100 targets) since Allen Robinson in 2015.
Maybe extra critically, Aiyuk was not only a shot-play artist. Whereas he is a blistering deep menace with game-breaking pace, he was not used as a field-stretching WR2 driving sidecar to the high-volume stick-moving WR1. He led the 49ers in targets and receptions, and his catch price is simply as significant as his explosive play price. He hauled in 72.1% of his targets. (The league-average wideout caught 63 of his targets in 2023.)
Take into consideration that for a second. A receiver with a excessive share of explosive receptions is normally getting dangerous downfield targets that predict a low catch price, however Aiyuk simply bucked that pattern. Here is each huge receiver season with at the least 100 targets since 2010. Have a look at the place Aiyuk’s 2023 season lands. It is nearly alone in its marriage of explosiveness and effectivity:
We simply noticed some of the efficient receiver seasons … ever. By the numbers, an Aiyuk route final season was extra harmful than any Calvin Johnson route, any Julio Jones route, any Davante Adams route.
That merely does not move the sniff check, nonetheless. Aiyuk’s numbers may need been historic, however the league ranked him because the Tenth-best receiver proper now. His expertise pops off the display, certain. However solely as wonderful — not as distinctive.
Aiyuk has benefitted from large inflation within the manufacturing achievable on the place. Of the 5 finest single seasons by yards per route run, three got here from 2023, and one of many remaining two got here from 2022. Effectivity is climbing whilst uncooked quantity is climbing: We all know that the league is passing the soccer greater than ever, and doing so extra efficiently. There have been 27 1,000-yard receivers final season, which is essentially the most the league has ever produced.
Aiyuk was additionally traditionally explosive and environment friendly … on a traditionally explosive and environment friendly offense. Since 2010, solely the 2013 Eagles had a greater explosive move price than the 2023 49ers. Whereas loads of that credit score actually belongs to Aiyuk, it is robust to disregard George Kittle as soon as once more main tight ends in explosive catch price (27.7%) or Deebo Samuel’s 25% explosive catch price, an astonishing quantity, contemplating his targets have been a lot shallower (6.78 air yards per goal) than Aiyuk’s (13.95).
This can be a chicken-and-egg drawback. Aiyuk’s expertise is the rising tide, and it lifts the boats of Kittle and Samuel, who should not bona fide WR1s like Aiyuk. Samuel is a gadget participant made excellent in Kyle Shanahan’s offense, however he’s at his finest on shallow targets or designed screens — Shanahan could not give him Aiyuk’s menu of downfield routes and count on him to dominate. When he’s paired with Aiyuk, he will get touches extra curated for his talent set, as does Kittle.
The farthest Samuel ever went downfield in a single season was 2021, when he averaged 8.75 air yards per goal — nonetheless, greater than half of his yardage got here after the catch, and solely 30% of his receptions have been explosives. That is an important season, however not akin to what Aiyuk did in 2023, or how Aiyuk was used. The most effective comparability — although we do not have a ton of route-specific knowledge to emphasise it — is the 2016 season Julio Jones delivered beneath Kyle Shanahan in Atlanta. It wasn’t Jones’ finest season for quantity, however for effectivity and explosiveness, it was Aiyuk-esque. (And, not for nothing, it was one other Tremendous Bowl 12 months for Shanahan’s group. Do not ask what occurred subsequent.)
Evaluating Brandon Aiyuk to Different Elite Seasons Beneath Shanahan
So Aiyuk doubtless unlocks an echelon of the 49ers’ offense for everybody — Samuel, Kittle, and even quarterback Brock Purdy (as we’ll see under) — that they in any other case wouldn’t attain. However by the identical token, it is nearly sure Aiyuk wouldn’t set practically as traditionally vital numbers if he have been on a remarkably worse offense. That is necessary, contemplating he very properly could find yourself on a remarkably worse offense by the point the week is out.
Why is Aiyuk’s contract state of affairs so contentious?
In a large receiver market so saturated with expertise and ballooning manufacturing, many younger wideouts can argue that they are a prime man — and prime guys are getting paid. That is why the place noticed a market-topping extension for Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), which was instantly leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for A.J. Brown (Eagles), which was then leapfrogged by a market-topping extension for Justin Jefferson (Vikings).
It is why Tee Higgins (Bengals) requested a commerce earlier than succumbing to the franchise tag, and why teammate Ja’Marr Chase is holding in (and, recently, holding out) for a contract extension of his personal. It is why Hill (Dolphins) and Cooper (Browns) and Courtland Sutton (Broncos) all received their current contracts buffed throughout coaching camp — the highest of the market has grown so quick that offers signed simply two offseasons in the past are going stale.
Because the market explodes, 49ers normal supervisor John Lynch has been painted right into a nook. The 49ers cannot argue they will solely carry one top-of-market huge receiver deal, as a result of the Eagles have two huge contracts in Brown and DeVonta Smith, and the Dolphins have the identical with Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Waddle and Smith have been each drafted in 2021, a 12 months after Aiyuk, so San Francisco cannot actually contend that Aiyuk ought to wait out his fifth-year choice, both. It’s cheap that he needs to be paid now, even with Samuel’s $28.6 million cap hit sitting on the books.
And contemplating Aiyuk’s towering 2023 manufacturing, crafting the argument for him to turn out to be the league’s top-paid receiver is not very exhausting. He has gotten higher in every of his 4 seasons as a professional. He was essentially the most explosive receiver and one of many three best wideouts in soccer final season. If we actually strap on our agent hat, we will even declare he’s the rationale Purdy has been so profitable. Since Purdy took over because the 49ers’ starter in 2022, Aiyuk has been his most dear goal. Amongst all of San Francisco’s terrifying weapons, Aiyuk is the very best at turning a Purdy goal right into a profitable play, a primary down or an explosive play:
Brock Purdy’s Numbers By Goal Since 2022
That is removed from an hermetic argument. The best clarification for Purdy’s explosion coinciding with Aiyuk’s emergence is simply that: coincidence. Simply as Aiyuk was getting into his bodily prime and escaping Shanahan’s doghouse, the place he spent a lot of the 2021 season, Purdy stumbled into the beginning job and introduced downfield aggressiveness that incumbent QB Jimmy Garoppolo lacked. That is one other chicken-and-egg drawback that makes discerning simply how helpful Aiyuk is to the 49ers very, very difficult.
In that spirit, let’s forged apart our agent hat and substitute it with a normal supervisor one. If I used to be in John Lynch’s seat, negotiating with Aiyuk and his agent, I would not deliver up the Purdy stats. As a substitute, I might deliver up these of Texans WR Nico Collins.
Collins loved a 2023 breakout very similar to Aiyuk, maybe one much more stunning. However Collins is only one 12 months youthful than Aiyuk and fills a really related position. Beneath Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, who got here from San Francisco and runs an offense harking back to Shanahan’s, Collins is identical major receiver that Aiyuk is for the 49ers. Let’s examine the manufacturing of the 2 younger gamers:
Brandon Aiyuk’s 2023 Season vs. Nico Collins’ 2023 Season
StatBrandon AiyukNico CollinsTargets104 (thirty first)108 (twenty fifth)Catches75 (twenty fourth)80 (seventeenth)Yards1,342 (seventh)1,297 (eighth)Catch Rate72.1% (seventh)74.1% (fifth)Yards per route3.26 (third)3.30 (2nd)Yards per target12.9 (1st)12.0 (2nd)Explosive play rate37.3% (third)31.3% (sixth)Air yards per target13.95 (twelfth)10.69 (forty fourth)Yards after catch %27% (fifty fifth)42.3 (18th)
It is value noting the variations: Collins received shallower targets and produced extra yards after the catch, whereas Aiyuk received targets additional downfield with much less YAC. However there’ll all the time be variations between two receivers, even in related roles in related offenses. The connective tissue right here is as sturdy because it will get within the NFL.
After all, in a vacuum, this is not actually a problem. Collins being very, excellent does not change the truth that Aiyuk can also be very, excellent. Each ought to get large fats contracts to mirror their latest excellence and rosy futures.
The difficulty is Collins simply signed a contract extension. With one 12 months left on his earlier deal, he signed a three-year, $72.75 million extension in Might, a median of solely $24.25 million per 12 months. And if the phrases “solely $24.25 million per 12 months” appear completely preposterous to you, I get it, however Collins took lower than Smith received on his extension in April. That $24.25 million common ranked seventh amongst receivers on the time it was signed, and has solely been kicked additional down the checklist by newer extensions. It is this contract that may give me pause earlier than handing Aiyuk a clean examine.
I do not know precisely what contract Aiyuk is pursuing from the 49ers, however ESPN’s Mike Reiss reported that the Patriots have been keen to pay Aiyuk $32 million per 12 months ought to he settle for a commerce to the Patriots (Aiyuk declined). That is top-three WR cash, and it is cheap to count on the 49ers and Aiyuk are negotiating someplace in that vary.
Once more, it is smart that Aiyuk needs that cash. All the opposite younger receivers round him are getting paid, or are holding out to get it achieved. However the riddle for Lynch to resolve is that this: What share of Aiyuk’s manufacturing belongs to his particular person excellence, his expertise degree? What share of it’s the results of taking part in on an elite offense with so many different weapons to account for? And what number of it’s the results of taking part in for maybe the preeminent offensive thoughts of this technology?
The success of Collins is a cautionary story. Possibly it is a lot simpler to be a extremely environment friendly and explosive receiver on this position than it seems. Possibly succeeding on this place warrants $24 million per 12 months, not $34 million — top-10 huge receiver cash, not top-three.
Even in opposition to an ever-rising cap ceiling, that $10 million is just not an insignificant quantity for San Francisco. The upcoming Purdy extension looms over their checkbooks. As a result of Purdy was not a first-round choose, he has no fifth-year choice hooked up to his contract; his four-year deal is up after the 2025 season, and he is eligible for an extension in March.
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Simply because the huge receiver market is booming, so too is the quarterback market. Tua Tagovailoa simply received $53.1 million per 12 months for aptly quarterbacking a high-octane Shanahan-inspired offense in Miami. Jordan Love received $55 million per 12 months for one season of beginning. You assume Purdy, who has been to 2 convention championship video games and one Tremendous Bowl, is taking something lower than these colossal figures? With one other playoff run and a possible Dak Prescott free agent marketing campaign inflating the market additional, Purdy is likely to be a $60 million man by this time subsequent 12 months.
It is not unimaginable to work across the huge quarterback extension. As soon as once more, these pesky Eagles discovered room within the books, extending Jalen Hurts alongside Brown and Smith. The Dolphins have Tagovailoa with Waddle and Hill. Nevertheless it requires monetary finagling. Groups need to borrow from future years with intelligent constructions. And ultimately, they’re going to attain essential mass. The 49ers cannot have a prime sort out contract (Trent Williams) and prime move rusher contract (Nick Bosa) and prime defensive sort out contract (Javon Hargrave) and prime linebacker contract (Fred Warner) and prime working again contract (Christian McCaffrey) and prime tight finish contract (Kittle) after they wish to carry a prime quarterback contract and two prime huge receiver contracts. One thing’s gotta give.
Ought to the 49ers commerce Aiyuk?
In all probability not. He is an important younger participant who may nonetheless be getting even higher, has apparent chemistry with Purdy and is nice within the offense. Clearly, because the 49ers get tight in opposition to the cap, they need to examine each alternative to get cheaper and accumulate premier draft capital. I’ve little doubt that, even when Aiyuk have been fortunately practising and keen to play on his fifth-year choice, they might have been tossing across the thought of buying and selling him, simply to see the market.
What I can say with certainty is that this: San Francisco shouldn’t commerce him beneath these situations. It’s the center of August, for heaven’s sake. The 49ers, who would nonetheless very a lot like to win the Tremendous Bowl that has maddeningly eluded Shanahan for a few years, are the favorites to signify the NFC as soon as once more. To commerce away their most efficient offensive weapon from 2023, their quarterback’s favourite goal, could be foolish at any time — however particularly so this near this season, when there may be little time to onboard alternative receivers or alter the offense to Aiyuk’s absence.
Aiyuk can also be utilizing the leverage of his coaching camp maintain in to maneuver a commerce to the Steelers, which is damaging to the 49ers’ leverage in commerce negotiations. Once more, that is properly inside his rights: He’s not compelled to cheerily hop, skip and bounce to no matter franchise the Lynch and Shanahan select to toss him to, which is why he axed the cope with the Patriots.
Aiyuk has displayed clear curiosity in two groups: the Steelers and the Commanders. The Commanders make sense, as he performed with rookie QB Jayden Daniels at Arizona State. (You learn that proper: Aiyuk, who’s getting into his fifth season as a professional, performed with Daniels, who’s a rookie.) However the Steelers … do not actually make a lot sense. Their quarterback room is a quite miserable battle between declining veteran Russell Wilson and first-round disappointment Justin Fields. Even when the quarterback play have been satisfactory, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are likely to favor a run-heavy offensive philosophy: grind the protection down, eat some clock, management the ball and belief the protection to complete the job. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is minimize from the same fabric. Whereas there are some schematic similarities between the Shanahan offense and the projected Pittsburgh offense, there’s a large distinction in philosophy and likewise in, uh, goodness.
Why would Aiyuk wish to go to Pittsburgh so fervently that every one different suitors have fallen away? Sure, that features the Commanders, who’ve apparently eliminated themselves from the Aiyuk sweepstakes. I am actually undecided. Respect for Tomlin, a beloved gamers coach? A faint reminiscence of the Russ who cooked within the mid-2010s?
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Are the Steelers the very best touchdown spot for Brandon Aiyuk?
Mike Tannenbaum joins “First Take” to debate potential locations for 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk.
Regardless of the supply, the 49ers have been pressured right into a one-team marketplace for Aiyuk, and that makes it practically unimaginable to get a good value on a commerce. A primary-round choose was the centerpiece of the 2022 offers that despatched A.J. Brown from Tennessee to Philadelphia and Marquise Brown from Baltimore to Arizona, two gamers on rookie offers and in want of huge extensions, as Aiyuk is. I am assured Aiyuk is a much better participant than Marquise Brown was then, and he is likely to be on the degree A.J. Brown was earlier than Brown took one other step with the Eagles.
There hasn’t been any agency reporting on the commerce package deal Pittsburgh has submitted. I do not see how the 49ers may have cajoled a first-rounder out of the Steelers, who’re notoriously shy merchants, given their lack of leverage all through this whole course of. If this deal will get achieved, I guess you the Steelers made out like bandits.
However this deal won’t get achieved! The 49ers do not wish to commerce Aiyuk. The 2 sides are nonetheless negotiating a long-term extension. Might the 49ers actually preserve Aiyuk in any case this drama?
It is much less preposterous than you would possibly assume. Keep in mind, earlier than Samuel received his extension from the 49ers in 2022, he demanded a commerce and froze contract talks with the group, a lot as Aiyuk did this summer time. The character of the divide was a bit of completely different: Samuel was taking working again snaps and working again hits, and he was appropriately frightened about his profession longevity if his utilization within the offense did not change. The huge receiver surroundings was a bit of completely different, too — this was a time when prime receivers made solely $25 million per 12 months, and we had little cords that related our telephones to the wall, and gasoline was 5 cents a gallon, and many others. However ultimately, the deal received achieved.
Funnily sufficient, if Aiyuk really does stick with San Francisco on an infinite extension, Samuel doubtless turns into a commerce candidate. Each have been rumored to be on the commerce market in the course of the NFL draft in April, so if the 49ers decide to Aiyuk in the long run, they’re going to be in search of alternatives to dump Samuel for some cap reduction. They would not bounce on the first provide — Samuel remains to be solely 28, is uniquely suited to a Shanahan offense, and with $52.8 million in cap hits over the following two seasons, is fairly good worth within the WR market — however they’d have to select up the telephone if somebody got here calling.
