Lower than 3%. ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI) thinks there is a 2.7% probability the 9-0 Chiefs win their remaining eight video games and grow to be the primary group in NFL historical past to win 17 video games in a daily season. If they will win this weekend’s rivalry sport in opposition to the Payments, they are going to be favored in every of their seven remaining contests. Their probabilities of going 17-0 would greater than double.
After this previous Sunday’s sport, some individuals would possibly really feel just like the Chiefs’ probabilities of pulling this off are nearer to 100%. Late in a detailed sport in opposition to the Broncos, Kansas Metropolis appeared to have lastly met its match. Patrick Mahomes missed an open Travis Kelce in the long run zone, with the Chiefs as an alternative kicking a area objective to go up two factors. The Broncos then transformed three third downs to get in vary of a chip-shot area objective, just for Leo Chenal to give you a perfect-season-saving block of Wil Lutz’s kick. Kansas Metropolis gained 16-14. Its victories have felt preordained.
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And but, individuals taking a better look would possibly really feel just like the Chiefs’ likelihood is a lot nearer to 0%. They’ve gained precisely one sport by greater than 10 factors. They’ve gotten assist from outsized ft (Isaiah Seemingly’s non-catch on the finish of Week 1 in opposition to the Ravens), well-timed calls (a fourth-and-16 cross interference late in Week 2 in opposition to the Bengals), scaredy-cat coaches (Todd Bowles not going for 2 as a major underdog with 27 seconds left to go in regulation in Week 8 in opposition to the Bucs) and now a game-saving blocked area objective on the ultimate snap of regulation.
Who’s proper? Can the Chiefs actually do that? Whereas most everybody acknowledges it is a good soccer group, are they pretenders in relation to the opposite groups that began their seasons 9-0? Are they worse than different Kansas Metropolis groups from the previous? Can they sustain this cycle? And what does it imply for his or her probabilities of turning into the primary group in NFL historical past to three-peat? Let’s look into the undefeated Chiefs and take a look at to determine whether or not they can stick with it the remainder of the way in which:
Soar to a bit:How the Chiefs have gotten hereIs their begin truly sustainable?Are they the worst 9-0 group … ever?What has sunk earlier unbeaten groups?Will the Chiefs enhance and go 17-0?
When good predictions aren’t truly good
Earlier than the season, I predicted that the Chiefs had been one of the crucial possible groups to enhance on their regular-season report from 2023, after they went 11-6. After which, on my preseason podcast with colleagues Domonique Foxworth and Mina Kimes, I went a step additional and urged they’d be the second group in NFL historical past to win 16 video games within the common season, becoming a member of the 2007 Patriots, who went 16-0.
On the floor, I needs to be thrilled about this prediction. The Chiefs are the final undefeated group and are greater than midway to that 16-win prediction. If the remainder of the season performed out as chalk, ESPN’s FPI initiatives them to win 16 video games, shedding Sunday’s sport in opposition to Buffalo. On condition that I additionally predicted the Jaguars would win the AFC South, I ought to be ok with this one, proper?
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I do not, as a result of the the explanation why I anticipated the Chiefs to win 16 video games haven’t come true. The arguments I had in favor of their spectacular season have not panned out. Let’s assessment what I assumed would occur and what has occurred as an alternative:
An improved turnover differential. The Chiefs had a minus-11 turnover differential final season, a surprisingly unhealthy quantity for a group with Mahomes at quarterback and an opportunistic protection. They misplaced the turnover battle about 5 instances per season between 2018 and 2022, solely to take action 9 instances in the course of the common season in 2023. They went 4-5 in these video games and 7-1 in any other case.
Turnover differential sometimes regresses towards the imply, which is likely one of the causes I had the Commanders as a group possible to enhance this season. The Chiefs, although, have continued to show the ball over. Week 10 was the primary time all season they have not turned the ball over in a sport. They’ve a minus-four turnover differential general, which is tied with the Jets and Patriots for twenty second within the league.
The optimistic, if there may be one, is that they’ve solely misplaced the turnover battle thrice in 9 video games. Unsurprisingly, these video games have been tight: They embrace a one-point win over the Bengals, a seven-point victory over the Chargers the place they did not take the lead till there have been six minutes to go, and a six-point time beyond regulation win over the Buccaneers. Andy Reid’s group has someway solely gained the turnover battle as soon as this season, and it was arguably its most spectacular win, a 10-point victory within the Tremendous Bowl LVIII rematch over the 49ers.
Their fumble restoration fee. The 2023 Chiefs recovered 41.9% of their fumbles final season, a fee that was unluckily low. Historical past tells us fumble restoration charges nearly all the time regress towards 50% from 12 months to 12 months. For instance, if we simply take the 90 groups from 1991 via 2022 that recovered between 40% and 43% of their fumbles and see what they did the next season, their restoration fee the next season was 49.9699%. That is about as near 50% because it will get.
The 2024 Chiefs, someway, have been even worse at falling on footballs. They’ve recovered 5 of the 16 fumbles which have hit the bottom of their video games, good for a 31.3% restoration fee. Solely the Saints (30%) and Raiders (an unfathomably brutal 13.3%) have recovered a decrease share of fumbles this season. Kansas Metropolis was over 50% in 2022 and 2021.
The deep passing assault. As soon as the league’s most devastating deep passer, the departure of Tyreek Hill and the shift towards two-high coverages — which hit the Chiefs earlier than spreading throughout the remainder of the league — took away a lot of the downfield passing assault that made Mahomes an instantaneous sensation. In 2023, although, his 52.3 QBR on deep throws ranked solely twenty seventh within the league, as he accomplished 28.3% of his deep-pass makes an attempt whereas throwing one landing passes in opposition to 5 picks. After hitting 2.3 deep passes per sport in 2018, Mahomes was all the way down to averaging one per sport in 2023.
This season, Mahomes has solely six deep completions in 9 video games. Each different full-time starter within the league has extra. His 77.6 QBR on these throws bumps him as much as twenty first, however he nonetheless has three picks on 19 throws.
2:40
Stephen A., Mad Canine disagree on degree of concern for Chiefs
Stephen A. Smith and Chris “Mad Canine” Russo disagree on whether or not there may be trigger for concern over the Chiefs’ shut wins.
A part of the rationale why I used to be optimistic concerning the downfield-passing sport enhancing was enhancements in personnel. The Chiefs had been anticipating a full season out of second-year wideout Rashee Rice, used a first-round decide on Xavier Worthy and had signed Marquise Brown away from the Cardinals. Brown then suffered what seems to be a season-ending shoulder damage in the course of the preseason, whereas Rice went down with a knee damage early in Week 4. Worthy hasn’t been capable of persistently convert his velocity into downfield alternatives.
Common supervisor Brett Veach subsequently traded for DeAndre Hopkins, who had a spectacular deep contested catch in opposition to the Titans. That was the primary and solely deep completion Mahomes has had since Week 4, nonetheless. Whereas the drop fee for Kansas Metropolis’s large receivers has declined from a staggering 7.8% to three.6% this season (about league common), they do not have the type of large receiver expertise I hoped to see propel Mahomes again to his prior glories as a deep passer.
An elite protection. Whereas the Chiefs had traded star cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans to ease their cap considerations, they had been nonetheless returning a lot of the starters one of many league’s youngest defenses. They completed seventh in QBR allowed and fifth in anticipated factors added (EPA) allowed per play a 12 months in the past, and my hope was that breakout seasons from defensive linemen George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah would possibly propel the unit even additional ahead.
Karlaftis has been wonderful and the Chiefs nonetheless have an excellent protection, however they’ve taken a small step backward. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ranks thirteenth in QBR allowed and eleventh in EPA per play. Kansas Metropolis ranks fifth in factors allowed, however that is a product of going through simply 87 drives this season, six fewer than some other group. It’s eleventh in factors allowed per possession. Once more, whereas nonetheless among the many league’s higher defenses, it hasn’t been fairly as dominant.
So, if a lot of the arguments for the way the Chiefs had been going to enhance have not performed out as anticipated, how have they accomplished this?
How the Chiefs have began 9-0
They’ve gained a remarkably excessive share of their shut video games. They’re 7-0 in video games determined by seven factors or fewer, and as I discussed earlier, most of these video games have come all the way down to a drive and even one play going Kansas Metropolis’s method. The one different group in league historical past to start out the season with seven one-score wins and no losses in its first 9 video games was the 2006 Colts. That Indianapolis group promptly misplaced 21-14 to the Cowboys in its tenth sport of the season, however issues ended up simply high-quality for Peyton Manning & Co., as they completed the 12 months by beating the Bears in Tremendous Bowl XLI.
The Chiefs’ offense has been spectacular at precisely the fitting time. On first and second down, they’re producing minus-0.02 EPA per play, which ranks 18th within the league. They’re roughly about nearly as good because the Chargers and Steelers on early downs — not precisely who we consider after we take into account nice offenses.
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On third and fourth down? You may in all probability guess what occurs. The Chiefs are averaging 0.41 EPA per play, which is the league’s greatest mark. The Commanders are the one group near what Kansas Metropolis is doing on these cash downs. By 10 weeks, that is the fourth-best efficiency we have seen from any group on third and fourth downs in a single season over the previous decade.
The Chiefs are changing on a league-high 54.5% of their third- and fourth-down alternatives. The second-placed Bucs are the one different group over 50%. Whereas they have not been nice on first and second down, they’re hardly ever producing adverse performs reminiscent of sacks, which makes their life simpler; their common third down comes with simply 6.3 yards to go. Solely the Cardinals have confronted shorter third downs. The offense has gone 8-for-8 on fourth downs, as the one failure on a fourth-down strive got here on a pretend punt.
On particular groups, the Chiefs have had a major benefit within the kicking sport. Harrison Butker has been wonderful, going 18-of-20 on area targets and 22-of-23 on additional factors. His solely misses on area objective makes an attempt have been from 51 and 65 yards out.
When opposing kickers have tried to make kicks in opposition to Kansas Metropolis, it hasn’t gone as effectively. These kickers have hit simply 76.5% of their area objective tries, the fifth-worst fee within the league, and 82.4% of their additional factors, the bottom fee for any group. In all, kickers have hit on 79.4% of their makes an attempt in opposition to the Chiefs this season. Solely the Chargers have loved higher luck on opposing kicking makes an attempt. The Chenal block was clearly a product of ability, however it was the one block the Chiefs have in 2024.
Is that this Kansas Metropolis begin sustainable?
The third- and fourth-down numbers are an apparent purple flag. Groups do not sometimes have a capability to boost their sport on these downs after struggling on first and second down. There are groups higher in sure conditions given their personnel, however there is not any cause why an offense would solely begin making an attempt to succeed on third down when it may as an alternative transfer the chains on first or second down.
The Chiefs would possibly break our guidelines. By the Week 10 mark of every season over the previous decade, the very best third-and fourth-down offense was the 2022 Chiefs. The 2024 Chiefs rank fourth. The 2020 Chiefs had been ninth. The 2018 Chiefs had been tenth. And the 2021 Chiefs had been thirteenth. That 2021 group was much like this season’s Chiefs, as that they had a mean offense on early downs and had been a juggernaut on third and fourth downs:
How The Chiefs Have Dominated On Late Downs
YearEPA/Play Rank On1st & 2nd DownEPA/Play Rank On3rd & 4th Down201841201938202052202117120221120237132024181
That 2021 group bought higher on early downs. After Week 10, it was the league’s second-best offense on first and second downs, and it matched that mark on third and fourth downs. Groups sometimes see their efficiency on third and fourth down regress towards what they’ve accomplished on first and second down, since there is a far larger pattern within the latter class, however it would not be out of the unusual for the Chiefs to enhance on early downs over the remainder of the season.
I’d argue {that a} Mahomes-led offense rating under league common in something is an outlier. The pending return of Isiah Pacheco ought to assist a dashing assault that’s handing a mean of greater than 22 carries per sport over the previous 5 weeks to Kareem Hunt, who hasn’t topped 4.0 yards per rush in any of these contests. Hunt is averaging extra touches per sport (24.6) than any participant in soccer since he entered the beginning lineup in Week 5, a shocking statistic for a man who was out of soccer to start the season and actually hasn’t been superb in that function since taking on.
The Chiefs can also’t depend on opponents to overlook kicks all season. Even past the block on the finish of the sport, these misses have mattered. Justin Tucker missed a 53-yarder simply earlier than halftime in Week 1 that may have produced a wholly totally different endgame sequence for the Ravens within the fourth quarter. Lutz had a 60-yarder come up brief to finish the primary half on Sunday. Evan McPherson missed an additional level in a sport the Bengals ultimately misplaced by a single level.
With that being stated, there are methods this group can get luckier from right here on out. They will get well the next share of the fumbles that hit the bottom of their video games. Mahomes will not throw as many tipped interceptions as he has to this point. They’ve performed the eighth-toughest schedule this season, however ESPN’s FPI believes they will face the fifth-easiest slate from right here on out. Solely the Cardinals, Colts, Falcons and Bucs have simpler opponents forward of them.
The Chiefs’ underlying degree of play may additionally enhance. Swapping out replacement-level effectivity from Hunt for an above-average again in Pacheco can be a significant improve. Hopkins’ function within the offense ought to develop as he will get extra accustomed to the playbook. The early-down offense ought to get higher. They’re changing pressures to sacks on the sixth-lowest fee after rating eighth over the earlier two seasons. It is not doable to imagine all the nice issues which might be occurring will maintain occurring and all of the unhealthy issues will get mounted, however a few of the locations Kansas Metropolis has struggled are areas during which it is possible to enhance because the season progresses.
Are the Chiefs the worst 9-0 group ever?
There is a case to be made. For the reason that 1970 NFL-AFL merger, the common 9-0 group has had a degree differential of plus-122, that means it has gained its typical sport by 13.6 factors. The Chiefs do not have a single win by that mark, and their plus-58 level differential is the worst for any undefeated group via 9 video games. They’re two factors behind the aforementioned 2006 Colts, who instantly misplaced their tenth sport of the season.
On the identical time, schedule power is an actual factor, and it performs an enormous function in serving to groups produce undefeated stretches. The perfect instance is the one undefeated group in league lore. The 1972 Dolphins confronted one of many best regular-season slates in league historical past. After taking part in a Chiefs group in Week 1 that may ultimately end 8-6, Miami did not face one other group that may end with a successful report till Week 13, its second-to-last sport of the season. 9 of its 14 video games got here in opposition to groups that gained 5 video games or fewer.
Professional Soccer Reference makes use of its Easy Score System to calculate a power of schedule for every group. The common opponent for the 1972 Dolphins was 4.3 factors under league common by that system. Since then, simply six groups over the following 53 seasons have confronted a neater schedule. These groups, prorated to a 17-game schedule, gained a mean of 13 video games.
2:07
Stephen A.: Chiefs do not look as formidable
Stephen A. Smith says that regardless that the Chiefs are undefeated, they are often had.
A kind of six groups was the 1975 Vikings, who additionally began 9-0. Slightly below the Dolphins had been the 2015 Panthers, who began 9-0 and completed 15-1. The common full-season power of schedule for these groups that began 9-0 is minus-1.4, which might represent the eighth-easiest schedule for any group in 2024.
Whereas there are solely 9 video games price of information on these Chiefs, they’re going through a a lot harder schedule than the everyday 9-0 group performed throughout their full common season. With a plus-1.1 power of schedule, the one 9-0 group to face a harder slate throughout their full season was these 2006 Colts. That power of schedule will fall because the Chiefs face simpler opponents down the stretch, however they need to nonetheless end with one of many harder schedules we have seen from groups that had been on this place after 9 video games.
Have they been fortunate? Whereas I’ve identified the fumble luck hasn’t gone their method, they’ve had some lucky timing and benefited from issues like Isaiah Seemingly’s foot and unhealthy opposition kicking, neither of which they will management. It definitely looks like they’ve been much less dominant than the 2007 Patriots, and that is borne out by their level differential.
And but, the truth is the overwhelming majority of groups that get off to those begins catch breaks on the way in which. Take one other group quarterbacked by a Corridor of Famer that was making an attempt to say a three-peat, the 1990 49ers. Joe Montana’s group began 9-0 and completed 14-2, though they fell wanting the Tremendous Bowl after they misplaced to the Giants within the NFC Championship Sport.
In Week 1, these 49ers gained on a last-second area objective to beat the Saints after New Orleans threw deep with an opportunity to shut out the sport on third down with 1:35 to go. In Week 3, Deion Sanders dropped a pick-six that may have given the Falcons a fourth-quarter lead. The 49ers wanted a 10-point comeback to beat the Oilers in Week 4. In Week 8, Montana went 4-of-16 for 31 yards within the second half because the 49ers wanted one other area objective with 5 seconds left to beat a 2-6 Browns group. After a 24-20 victory over the Packers took the 49ers to 8-0, one headline stated: “It is Not Fairly, However It is Nonetheless the 49ers.”
Even the 2007 Patriots had their moments. They trailed 20-10 with eight minutes to go within the fourth quarter in opposition to the Colts earlier than main back-to-back landing drives to get to 9-0. After they wanted one other fourth-quarter comeback to beat A.J. Feeley and the Eagles as 24.5-point underdogs, The New York Occasions headline stated: “Patriots Are Unbeaten however Do not Look Unbeatable.” The following week, New England wanted a number of controversial calls and a successful landing with 44 seconds left to beat a 4-7 Ravens group. The Patriots completed December with a sport in opposition to the Jets that was inside one rating till the ultimate couple of minutes, then went down 28-16 in Week 17 in opposition to a Giants group with nothing to play for earlier than a livid comeback bought them to 16-0.
I might nonetheless say the Chiefs have been much less dominant than the 2007 Patriots, after all, as a result of we have hardly ever seen them draw back from opponents the way in which dominant groups often do. However it’s additionally true that we’ve got rose-colored recollections of the previous. Until you are a Ravens fan, you in all probability take into consideration that Patriots group dropping 40- and 50-point video games on overmatched opposition in the course of the common season, not their shut calls. In case you had been fortunate sufficient to see the 1972 Dolphins play, you in all probability weren’t considering an excessive amount of about their power of schedule. If the Chiefs make a critical run at 17-0, no person’s going to look again in twenty years and say they had been barely scraping by every week, even when it looks like that is true now.
What often sinks 9-0 groups?
Often, it is operating into one other nice group. When evaluating the 21 earlier 9-0 groups because the merger, I checked every of their first losses to see how and when it occurred. Two groups did not lose any regular-season video games, so the 1972 Dolphins and 2007 Patriots are out of the dialogue.
Of the remaining 19, 12 misplaced to a group I’d characterize as a professional playoff contender. The 2015 Patriots began 9-0 and misplaced in time beyond regulation to a Broncos group that may ultimately win the Tremendous Bowl. The 2009 Saints, who would ultimately win the title themselves, gained their first 13 video games earlier than shedding to the Cowboys, who gained the NFC East with an 11-5 report and even beat the Eagles within the wild-card spherical.
Six slipped on a banana peel. Take the 2011 Packers, who had been coming off a Tremendous Bowl win and cruising at 13-0. They went into Kansas Metropolis as 11.5-point favorites to face a 5-8 group that had already fired coach Todd Haley and promoted Romeo Crennel to the interim job. The Chiefs had been beginning Kyle Orton, who had been minimize by the Broncos at midseason and had thrown only one cross in a Kansas Metropolis uniform. The Chiefs hit 4 area targets and bought a landing from the legendary Jackie Battle, who broke off a 15-yard run to finish the sport and upset the Pack.
One other group on this listing is the 2009 Colts, who infamously determined to take Peyton Manning out of the sport within the third quarter of a Week 16 sport in opposition to the Jets with a 15-10 result in maintain their veteran recent for the postseason. The 14-0 Colts shortly pale with Curtis Painter at quarterback, whereas a New York group whose coach had stated the prior week that they had been “out of the playoffs,” solely to be told they nonetheless had a shot at making it by successful out, promptly roared again to beat the Colts, blew out the Bengals to clinch a playoff berth after which gained two playoff video games earlier than Manning bought his revenge within the AFC Championship Sport.
These groups often misplaced as a result of that they had a sport during which they suffered unrecoverable errors. They often ran ugly turnover margins, like when these 1990 49ers turned the ball over six instances in a loss to a Rams group that may end 5-11. The 1975 Vikings missed an additional level and two area targets, together with a 45-yarder on the finish of regulation, in a 31-30 loss to Washington. Opponents went on second-half outbursts that our undefeateds could not reply.
That type of sport may occur to the Chiefs, who’ve had turnover points this season. They nonetheless have powerful matchups in opposition to the Payments, Chargers, Texans and Steelers. They may be favored in every of their matchups after this weekend’s journey to Buffalo, however there’s an enormous distinction between being favored to win every of these video games and being favored to win all of these video games.
They might simply as simply be upset by an also-ran. Their final loss — on Christmas final 12 months — was to a Raiders group with Aidan O’Connell at quarterback when Vegas scored defensive touchdowns on back-to-back snaps. Those self same Raiders have gone 5-9 since. Kansas Metropolis almost misplaced as 7.5-point favorites at dwelling on Sunday in opposition to the Broncos, who had been coming off a 31-point loss to the Ravens in Week 9.
Will the Chiefs do it?
I do not assume so. Even by Chiefs requirements, they have been skating via wins by razor-thin margins and counting on Mahomes to bail them out after they want massive performs. Acknowledging that they all the time appear to discover a method, that is a harmful factor to depend on occurring for a complete season. Historical past tells us that no group, not even the Chiefs, can depend on blocked area targets and catches being a half-inch out of bounds to save lots of victories for a full season. Ultimately, the group has to dominate.
If the Chiefs maintain taking part in the way in which they have been taking part in, they don’t have any shot at 17-0. I do assume they may play higher over the remainder of the season, although, and that may make an undefeated season a minimum of a bit of extra believable. In the event that they get well extra fumbles, the run sport will get a lift from having Pacheco again within the lineup, Mahomes stops throwing interceptions and the protection takes a tiny step ahead nearer to the place it was in 2023, that is a a lot better model of this group.
The more than likely state of affairs is Kansas Metropolis comes up a number of wins brief. Utilizing the FPI’s win chances, I simulated the remainder of the Chiefs’ season 10,000 instances and located they had been more than likely to win 14 video games (28.2% of simulations) or 15 video games (26.3% of simulations). That they had a 13% probability of going 16-1, so even my spicy take from earlier than the season can be thought-about comparatively unlikely.
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These numbers are lacking one thing, as there’s the chance the Chiefs will let off the fuel. Reid has been pleased to take a seat his veterans in meaningless video games in earlier seasons. A win over the Payments would put them additional forward of the competitors for the highest seed within the AFC, and if the Steelers slip, they’d be in an much more dominant place. In the event that they had been to get to 15-0 and clinch home-field benefit within the AFC, would Reid actually play Mahomes and the remainder of his stars in two meaningless video games to attempt to put collectively an ideal season, figuring out he can be risking a shot on the first three-peat in league historical past? I am certain the Chiefs do not wish to lose earlier than the postseason, however there is a case to be made that it might make their lives simpler as they put together for the postseason.
Sunday will probably be Kansas Metropolis’s greatest check of the season. The Week 1 sport in opposition to the Ravens was at dwelling. Now, the group has to journey to Buffalo, and whereas it vanquished the Payments in Western New York in the course of the 2023 playoffs, Josh Allen & Co. have crushed the Chiefs in every of the previous three regular-season matchups they’ve performed. It appears presumptuous to speak about an undefeated season after a group wanted a blocked area objective to beat the Broncos. Beat the Payments on Sunday, although, and 17-0 Watch will formally be on.
