By means of the primary three rounds, the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs had been a showcase for the Edmonton Oilers and their superstar-laden offense.
The ultimate spherical of the 2024 Stanley Cup playoffs has not gone so effectively. Down 0-3 to the Florida Panthers, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl & Co. want a win in Recreation 4 (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+) to keep away from the sweep.
Whether or not by means of an altered lineup, techniques or one thing else totally, one thing wants to vary to keep away from that ignominious consequence. Our reporters and analysts are right here to explain how the Oilers can win Recreation 4 — and provide their ideas on whether or not they’ll.
What has been the most important motive for the Oilers’ lack of scoring?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: It seems to be a mixture of the Panthers’ system and their personnel. Within the common season, the Panthers allowed the fewest scoring possibilities per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 play, had been fourth in fewest high-danger targets allowed at 5-on-5 and seventh in fewest high-danger possibilities per 60 at 5-on-5.
They’ve discovered a technique to carry that over to the playoffs, suppressing different high-powered groups such because the New York Rangers. As for the personnel, every little thing they do from a ahead standpoint begins with two-time Selke Trophy winner Aleksander Barkov. Additionally they have glorious shutdown defensemen led by Gustav Forsling, plus a two-time Vezina Trophy winner in Sergei Bobrovsky.
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Arda Öcal, NHL broadcaster: The apparent reply is “the highest 5 Oilers playoff scorers haven’t scored this collection,” however Connor McDavid has nonetheless factored in on no less than half of each Oilers objective this postseason, together with this Stanley Cup Last (the one different participant that did that within the playoffs for a workforce that made the Last was somebody who wore No. 99).
The Panthers deserve a whole lot of credit score for shutting all of them down — notably Barkov, who has been stellar; Forsling, who has been the most effective defenseman this postseason; and Bobrovsky, who has confirmed up for just about each high-danger second the Oilers have been capable of muster. The entire-team effort has been actually spectacular.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: There are three fallen groups on this postseason subject that know the agony of making an attempt to attain towards the Panthers. The entire buy-in defensively from Florida’s complete lineup makes it close to inconceivable for groups to generate actually high-quality scoring possibilities — and even once they do, Bobrovsky has been there to make the top-tier saves vital for the Panthers to be getting ready to successful the franchise’s first Cup.
Forsling and Aaron Ekblad have been a formidable prime pairing, and every of the Panthers’ defensemen executes his function effectively. Florida retains skaters to the skin to provide Bobrovsky an opportunity at monitoring pucks cleanly. It is an unbeatable mixture.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: They’re enjoying the Florida Panthers. That is pretty much as good because it will get for a defensive workforce within the postseason. A lot has been product of the Oilers’ prime gamers not having a objective on this Stanley Cup Last. Ask Nikita Kucherov about it. Or David Pastrnak. Or Mika Zibanejad. Or Artemi Panarin. None of these gamers scored at 5-on-5 towards Florida within the playoffs.
Paul Maurice has his workforce enjoying as a five-man unit. Having Barkov and Sam Reinhart on the identical line is simply unfair — they’ve a 1.29 targets towards per 60 minutes whereas on the ice collectively. And if there’s a crack within the wall, if errors are made, they find yourself within the glove or on the pads of Bobrovsky.
What can the Oilers do to maintain the Panthers off the board?
Clark: Keep away from the kind of compounding errors that result in the Panthers having a giant interval. Recreation 3 noticed the Panthers rating three targets within the second interval, and people kind of exchanges are devastating. It is one thing the Oilers know effectively, as a result of that was the fourth time they’ve given up three in a interval this postseason.
Limiting the miscues that result in the Panthers discovering the openings to attain that many targets in a interval goes to play a significant function within the Oilers making an attempt to drive a Recreation 5.
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Öcal: The Oilers merely want Stuart Skinner to be elite the remainder of the best way. There is not any room for error anymore. There was one reverse sweep in Cup Last historical past, and it occurred within the Nineteen Forties.
If the Oilers need to have any ounce of hope of even successful a recreation, they want their goalie to win one for them. An .893 save share simply will not reduce it towards the Panthers’ offensive depth.
Shilton: Edmonton hasn’t simply been making an attempt to beat Florida. The Oilers are sometimes making an attempt to beat their very own errors within the course of. Giveaways are back-breakers always of the season, however particularly now when the Panthers are so adept at capitalizing on these freebies.
The important thing for Edmonton is to make Florida work for its ice. That is how the Panthers are making this collection so tough on the Oilers. Florida’s assault is available in waves, and Edmonton has to search out its personal technique to preserve the Panthers from constantly leeching their momentum.
Wyshynski: Cease giving them items prefer it’s their child bathe. Recreation 3 was trending within the Oilers’ route earlier than they coughed up the puck twice and allowed an odd-man rush to develop from deep of their attacking zone. They gave up three targets in 6:19 and that was the sport — as Leon Draisaitl mentioned afterwards, the Oilers had been chasing it the remainder of the sport.
Cease serving to the Panthers win the Cup. As in the event that they want the assistance.
What lineup change ought to Kris Knoblauch make for Recreation 4?
Clark: Easy because it sounds: no matter line combos that may result in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl scoring targets.
McDavid has two assists on this collection, whereas Draisaitl had one in Recreation 3. But the very fact neither of them has scored comes at some extent the place the Oilers aren’t solely going through elimination, however they’re getting targets — albeit not many — from gamers in secondary and tertiary scoring roles. Discovering a technique to get McDavid and Draisaitl, amongst others, in conditions wherein they will convert scoring possibilities to targets may very well be a solution.
However that additionally goes again to a different realization: Kris Knoblauch has already made plenty of changes that also have the Oilers looking for solutions as they attempt to keep away from being swept.
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Öcal: At this level, you strive something and every little thing as a result of your again is towards the wall. To Coach Knoblauch’s credit score, he has been tinkering with the traces, whether or not it is bringing Sam Carrick in for Corey Perry, transferring Adam Henrique as much as the second line or splitting up Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci.
Do Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele transfer up as a result of they contributed in Recreation 3? McDavid and Draisaitl collectively hasn’t been efficient towards the Panthers, which is actually an issue.
Shilton: Knoblauch has the most effective and worst drawback: Two of the world’s finest gamers are in his lineup, and two of the world’s finest gamers can not seem to rating on this collection. What is the reply there? It is the one query that issues.
Knoblauch would possibly as effectively have a look at each possibility the Oilers have to provide the highest six an optimum likelihood of success in Recreation 4. Is that splitting up McDavid and Draisaitl? Protecting them on one line with a puck distributor who can tee them up? Does Knoblauch rotate forwards in that place?
Edmonton must see its stars be stars in Recreation 4 to be able to really feel like there’s a nonetheless an opportunity to make a collection out of this.
Wyshynski: The Oilers have the identical drawback the Panthers had once they misplaced within the Stanley Cup Last final season: They’re operating out of wholesome gamers.
I do not even know whether or not Sam Gagner matches that description at this level. He hasn’t performed since April 18. He performed 9:26 in that recreation. Once more, I do not know whether or not Gagner can play. I’m assured that if he did, the roof would come off the world on his first shift. And that is the sort of vibe shift this workforce wants. Look, might he be any extra ineffective than a number of the workforce’s different depth forwards?
The ultimate rating of Recreation 4 can be ______.
Clark: 4-2 Panthers. The Oilers confirmed a degree of desperation late in Recreation 3 that leads one to wonder if they will replicate that all through the whole thing of Recreation 4. However the place it will get a bit sophisticated is the very fact Paul Maurice and his teaching workers have made the wanted changes all through the collection.
That is to not say Edmonton cannot discover a breakthrough and drive a Recreation 5. However when the Panthers have discovered quite a few methods to attain targets, stop targets and fend off a workforce the best way they did in Recreation 3? It is attainable that it is an excessive amount of for the Oilers to beat.
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Öcal: 6-1 Panthers. The Oilers’ finest likelihood was within the third interval of Recreation 3, the place they bought two targets to carry it to inside one with about 5 minutes to go, however could not discover the equalizer. I would not be shocked to see Edmonton win to drive a Recreation 5, however this does really feel like a sweep.
Shilton: 3-2 Oilers. The Oilers had been one excellent Sergei Bobrovsky save in Recreation 3 from forcing time beyond regulation. Edmonton’s efficiency in that complete third interval was gutsy and difficult, and if they will channel that vitality for the whole thing of Recreation 4, there is a stable likelihood there is a Recreation 5 again in Florida. And it might be a becoming swan track for Edmonton’s season to get that one Cup Last win at residence for its followers.
Wyshynski: 4-2 Oilers. As a result of that will be probably the most hilarious consequence, as everybody sulks onto their flights to journey a Stanley Cup Last-record 2,541 miles again to Fort Lauderdale to easily delay the inevitable.
Famously, there have been 28 situations of a workforce taking a 3-0 within the Stanley Cup Last, with these groups successful the Cup 27 instances. Even when the Oilers handle to ship the collection again to South Florida with a Recreation 4 win, 25 of these 28 collection have resulted in 5 video games. This collection is over. It is only a matter of when. And for these of us who keep in mind the palpable unhappiness of media members having to schlep all the best way again to Los Angeles in 2012 after the Kings took a 3-0 lead however the New Jersey Devils received Recreation 4, it is time for a redux.