In case you’re an ACC basketball fan — or worse, ACC commissioner Jim Phillips — then you definitely may wish to avert your eyes.
In case you’re an SEC basketball fan? Come on in. The water’s greater than positive.
1. The ACC’s nightmare is the SEC’s coronation
This week’s ACC-SEC Problem wasn’t only a beatdown.
It was a baton cross: one league definitively usurping one other, historical past and long-term success be damned.
What else do you name a 14-2 slaughter within the SEC’s favor? Some “problem.” Actually, this was validation of Greg Sankey’s convention lastly pouring its soccer riches into basketball — resulting in what now seems to be the deepest, hardest convention in America. That isn’t simply anecdotal. KenPom presently ranks the SEC as the most effective convention within the nation by a major margin; there’s extra of a spot between the SEC and the second-place Large Ten than there’s from the Large Ten to the fourth-place Large East. The ACC, in the meantime, is the caboose of the high-major leagues, firmly again in fifth.
And although the ACC’s two wins — Clemson over Kentucky, and Duke over Auburn — did come in opposition to beforehand undefeated, top-five groups, that doesn’t compensate for the bigger lopsidedness. Think about that the SEC had as many groups ranked within the high 5 this week (three) because the ACC did altogether … and that’s together with North Carolina, which one way or the other remained ranked regardless of not having crushed a high-major crew all season. UNC’s 94-79 residence loss to Alabama on Wednesday sinks the Tar Heels to their worst first-month document since Matt Doherty’s doomed 2001-02 season.
Additionally, it’s not just like the SEC squeaked out a number of nail-biters. Tennessee trounced Syracuse by 26, will in all probability be No. 1 in subsequent week’s ballot and has received each sport this season by no less than 15 factors. Ole Miss beat up on banged-up Louisville by 23. South Carolina beat Boston School by 22. Georgia beat Notre Dame by 21. Mississippi State clobbered Pitt, one of many ACC’s three ranked groups, by 33.
So, annihilation.
The ACC has earned solely 5 NCAA Match berths the previous three seasons, its fewest in a three-year span in a decade, and but, the league hitting that complete once more this season already appears bold. Duke appears to be like like a respectable nationwide title contender, in order that’s one. Clemson has been sneakily strong, particularly defensively. North Carolina nonetheless in all probability wins sufficient video games to get in? And Pitt’s resume and metrics are proper there, too, even after Wednesday’s shellacking. However after that… Louisville? Wake Forest? Bueller? It’s bleak.
On the opposite aspect of that coin is the SEC, which ought to toy with the all-time event bids document of 11, set by the Large East in 2011. 13 (!!) SEC groups rank in KenPom’s high 50 by way of adjusted effectivity, and 14 of the league’s 16 members have no less than seven wins and two or fewer losses. (John Calipari’s first Arkansas crew isn’t in that blend; the Razorbacks have misplaced to each top-75 groups they’ve performed.) The league has depth and top-end expertise. Of the 4 undefeated energy convention groups left within the nation, three — Tennessee, Florida and Oklahoma — hail from the SEC, and all of them personal no less than three high-major wins.
Perhaps it does simply imply extra.
2. 4 of the highest 5 misplaced in a single week? Meaning …
Our preseason expectations appear to be right: There are many nice groups this season, in all probability a dozen or so that would conceivably make the Remaining 4, however there seemingly isn’t an elite tier.
Like final 12 months, as an illustration. Purdue and UConn proved early on — like, by this level within the calendar — that they had been 1A and 1B. That they confronted off within the nationwide championship sport was solely an additional testomony to that lofty standing. A single-elimination event doesn’t at all times produce the “finest” crew, however each groups had been so good final season that their collision course virtually felt inevitable.
This 12 months? Auburn appeared nice in beating three top-12 groups within the first month, plus successful the Maui Invitational, however Duke’s No. 1 protection held the Tigers’ top-ranked offense at bay for lengthy sufficient Wednesday to drag out a win. It took Creighton utilizing an excessive defensive technique to down No. 1 Kansas, however the Jayhawks’ lack of perimeter capturing, which doomed Invoice Self’s crew late final season, reared its head once more, regardless of Self’s switch portal imports this summer time.
There’s completely no disgrace in Marquette dropping at Iowa State — the Cyclones are elite sufficient as is, with out factoring in Hilton Coliseum’s magic — however now the Golden Eagles must see what’s up with Chase Ross, their finest 3-point shooter, who exited early with an ankle harm. And as for Kentucky, the Cats had their worst 3-point capturing sport all season — largely because of Clemson’s protection, which is top-20 nationally in adjusted effectivity — and by no means acquired Koby Brea, the nation’s high 3-point shooter, turned unfastened.
None of these are dangerous losses. However they do recommend a stage of parity on the high of the pecking order. All that stated, I’d nonetheless decide a number of of these groups amongst my top-five favorites to make the Remaining 4. In alphabetical order: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Marquette (if Ross is okay) and Tennessee.
3. How Duke’s No. 1 protection out-toughed Auburn’s No. 1 offense
Auburn middle Johni Broome entered Wednesday night time first in KenPom’s Nationwide Participant of the 12 months rankings, and for good motive. The All-American was recent off being named Maui Invitational MVP, after carving up Iowa State, UNC and Memphis. And early on, in opposition to Duke freshman middle Khaman Maluach — who’s 7 toes 2 however not practically as bodily sturdy as Broome — it appeared like Auburn’s massive man may get rolling once more.
The Tigers raced out to a 13-2 lead, prompting Jon Scheyer to name timeout and sub in backup middle Maliq Brown, an All-ACC defender final 12 months at Syracuse. At 6-9 and 222 kilos, Brown nonetheless provides up dimension to Broome, however between his palms — “the most effective palms I’ve ever coached,” Scheyer stated — and his capability to change onto the perimeter, Brown provides Duke one of the vital versatile defenders within the nation. Simply look how way more resistance Brown (No. 6, sporting the scarf) presents, even off a BLOB (baseline out of bounds) set:
Per ESPN Stats & Data, Broome made two of his seven pictures when Brown was his main defender. In opposition to each different Duke participant, he went 6-for-11.
Past Brown’s inside presence, he was key to the Blue Devils blowing up Auburn’s main offense. Typically talking, Auburn below Bruce Pearl has relied on Flex ideas: the place a defender units what appears to be like like a cross display simply exterior of the paint, permitting his teammate to chop untouched parallel to the baseline.
You may see why it really works. Broome will get remoted virtually proper on the rim, the place (per CBB Analytics) he’s capturing 83 % this season — greater than 20 % higher than the nationwide common. Few groups are stopping this:
In finding out Auburn’s tape, although, Scheyer had an thought: If Auburn’s Flex relies on choosing defenders off with screens, creating momentary openings, then what if Duke switched the whole lot and by no means gave Auburn these home windows? It might be powerful to execute, defenders having to speak the whole lot, and doing so shortly sufficient to chop off Auburn’s angles. However Duke was keen to attempt — and principally, the technique labored.
Auburn went virtually 4 minutes down the stretch with no made basket — together with this possession — particularly due to Scheyer’s choice to change in opposition to the Flex. Auburn tries to get Chaney Johnson (No. 31, high of the display) coming open throughout the center, however Cooper Flagg switches it and passes Johnson off to Isaiah Evans; that stops Tahaad Pettiford from hitting Johnson throughout the center, and as an alternative forces him to kick it out extensive to Miles Kelly. Duke has Brown hedge the next Kelly-Broome ball display, however Evans and Tyrese Proctor nail the rotation on the assistance aspect, giving Brown time to recuperate and assist contest the shot.
After Duke beat Arizona on the highway, Scheyer in contrast Maluach and Brown’s completely different types to a pitcher with a number of pitches. Maluach presents sheer size and rim safety, whereas Brown provides extra versatility, deflections and (no less than for now) energy. In some methods, it’s not in contrast to the massive man rotation UConn used the previous two seasons with Donovan Clingan and Adama Sanogo/Samson Johnson. The completely different appears to be like imply Duke can play a number of coverages. That’s a worthwhile asset in Scheyer’s toolbox.
4. Harm woes emerge
Sadly, it’s that point of 12 months. A number of groups have been burned by long-term accidents to big-time gamers, together with:
Alabama: The Crimson Tide misplaced beginning guard Latrell Wrightsell Jr. over the weekend to a ruptured Achilles tendon, and it’s as devastating for the participant as it’s for this system. Nate Oats’ crew has struggled capturing the ball — Alabama is sub-150 nationally in 3-point capturing, at simply 33.1 %, and couldn’t afford to lose Wrightsell, its high shooter. He leads the Tide in made 3s (19) and 3-point proportion (42.2 %).
Nonetheless, switch guard Chris Youngblood — the reigning co-AAC Participant of the 12 months, who averaged 15.3 factors and shot 41.6 % from 3 at South Florida final season — is near returning. Youngblood hasn’t performed but this season with an ankle harm, however Oats stated over the weekend that the 6-4 guard will make his debut “fairly quickly,” probably within the subsequent two weeks. Alabama is off till subsequent weekend, when it hosts Creighton in its closing consequential nonconference sport. It’s very potential, if not possible, that Youngblood fits up. Regardless, Alabama must get him up to the mark shortly; it hosts undefeated Oklahoma in its first SEC sport on Jan. 4.
Louisville: As a result of Pat Kelsey’s job rebuilding the Playing cards wasn’t powerful sufficient already. Ahead Kasean Pryor — who I assumed was Louisville’s most gifted participant throughout a mid-October go to — tore his ACL in the course of the crew’s Battle 4 Atlantis look, and it’s onerous to overstate how massive a blow that’s for UL. Pryor was averaging 12.1 factors, 6.1 rebounds and a pair of.1 assists per sport in solely 23.3 minutes per contest, and his all-around affect will probably be borderline unimaginable to switch.
However that’s not all. Backup guard Koren Johnson — the reigning Pac-12 Sixth Man of the 12 months — introduced Tuesday that he’s present process season-ending shoulder surgical procedure and will probably be redshirting. Johnson hadn’t performed for the reason that crew’s second sport, sitting out with an undisclosed ailment, however dropping him means Kelsey is down a worthwhile physique within the backcourt. Lastly, ahead Aboubacar Traore — who averaged 12 factors, 8.4 rebounds and 4.5 assists per sport at Lengthy Seashore State final season — has been out since mid-November with a damaged left arm. Kelsey stated the anticipated restoration timeline for Traore is about six weeks, which might have him returning across the new 12 months. That may’t come quickly sufficient for a Playing cards crew making an attempt to get again to the NCAA Match.
Connecticut: After taking an elbow to the pinnacle late vs. Dayton in Maui, UConn wing Alex Karaban — the one returning starter from final season’s title crew — needed to be taken to a Hawaiian hospital. Karaban suffered what coach Dan Hurley later referred to as a “fairly gentle concussion.” Nonetheless: Karaban sat out UConn’s blowout victory vs. Maryland Japanese Shore on Saturday, in addition to the Huskies’ massive four-point win over Baylor on Wednesday within the Large 12-Large East Battle.
Karaban’s going to be again sooner somewhat than later, however simply how shortly will that be? With UConn within the midst of arguably its hardest stretch all season, it sorely wants its main scorer. It performs Sunday at Texas earlier than enjoying Gonzaga in Madison Sq. Backyard and internet hosting Xavier in two weeks’ time.
(Picture of Tennessee guard Chaz Lanier: Brianna Paciorka / Information Sentinel / USA Immediately through Imagn Photographs)
