As we enter into the center of fantasy soccer draft season, it is time for our annual predictions of sleepers, busts and breakout gamers. Interpretations of the phrases can differ for every, however listed below are the definitions for our functions:
Sleeper: A participant who’s being ignored and can outperform his common draft place (ADP) in 2024.
Bust: A extremely regarded participant who will underperform in 2024, relative to his ADP/rating.
Breakout: A participant who will put up career-best numbers in 2024 and make a big impact.
Stephania Bell, Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Daniel Dopp, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza, Eric Moody, Subject Yates and Tyler Fulghum every contributed a sleeper and a bust for every of the key offensive positions, in addition to one breakout candidate. You’ll find their picks under, in addition to their evaluation and insights on a number of gamers they felt most obsessed with in every class.
Editor’s be aware: This story might be up to date all through the offseason.
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Quarterback sleepers
Stephania Bell: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville JaguarsMatt Bowen: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles RamsMike Clay: Bryce Younger, Carolina PanthersTristan H. Cockcroft: TUA TAGOVAILOA, Miami Dolphins
Fantasy managers appear to be forgetting Tagovailoa thus far, maybe as a result of he hasn’t realized his full potential via 4 seasons, and maybe as a result of he is a so-called damage danger. Nonetheless, he completed fifteenth and eleventh at his place in fantasy scoring the previous two seasons, respectively. He scored 300-plus factors over a 16-game span from Week 8 of 2022 to Week 8 of 2023, demonstrating his statistical ceiling and, most significantly, he has two of the sport’s most gifted receivers at his disposal. If you happen to like drafting high-upside weekly scorers and piecing the place collectively, as I do, Tagovailoa delivers nice worth amongst that group of candidates.
Daniel Dopp: Jayden Daniels, Washington CommandersTyler Fulghum: Kirk Cousins, Atlanta FalconsEric Karabell: Caleb Williams, Chicago BearsLiz Loza: JAYDEN DANIELS, Commanders
Daniels is a dual-threat expertise who has a great ability set for the trendy NFL. Throughout his record-breaking Heisman season, the 23-year-old led the FBS in each yards per move (11.66) and yards per rush (8.4). Not dissimilar in taking part in model to Kyler Murray, Daniels’ throwing traits are a eager match for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. With Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson main the receiving corps, in addition to a strong run recreation obtainable to determine a rhythm, Daniels has discovered himself in a sneaky-productive state of affairs. Given his elite dashing instincts, the rookie may finish his inaugural marketing campaign inside the highest 15 fantasy producers on the place.
Eric Moody: Will Levis, Tennessee TitansField Yates: Jayden Daniels, Commanders
Quarterback busts
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Stephania Bell: Aaron Rodgers, New York JetsMatt Bowen: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland BrownsMike Clay: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles ChargersTristan H. Cockcroft: Aaron Rodgers, JetsDaniel Dopp: Deshaun Watson, BrownsTyler Fulghum: Caleb Williams, BearsEric Karabell: Deshaun Watson, BrownsLiz Loza: Kirk Cousins, FalconsEric Moody: JUSTIN HERBERT, Chargers
Herbert has proven why he is one of many league’s most gifted quarterbacks, averaging 274.1 passing yards per recreation over the previous three seasons, the third highest within the league in that span. Nevertheless, Herbert now finds himself with out key gamers in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Gerald Everett and Austin Ekeler. As an alternative, he is left with unprovens Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer and rookie Ladd McConkey. On high of that, Herbert has a brand new head coach in Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator in Greg Roman who rely closely on the run recreation. It would not look promising for Herbert in 2024.
Subject Yates: AARON RODGERS, Jets
Whereas I’m of the assumption that Rodgers will bounce again in a significant method this season after taking part in simply 4 snaps in 2023, his days as one of many best possible fantasy quarterbacks are seemingly executed. At his peak, Rodgers was an elite fantasy quarterback by advantage of gaudy passing statistics (he had 85 passing touchdowns in 2021-2022 when he gained consecutive NFL MVPs), miniscule turnover manufacturing and reasonable dashing manufacturing because the icing on the cake. I anticipate Rodgers to have excellent, however not elite, passing numbers, and after back-to-back seasons with simply 195 complete dashing yards, his legs are a digital nonfactor (particularly coming off a torn Achilles). There’s merely an excessive amount of depth on the place and better upside gamers to think about.
Operating again sleepers
Stephania Bell: Jerome Ford, BrownsMatt Bowen: D’Andre Swift, BearsMike Clay: Brian Robinson Jr., CommandersTristan H. Cockcroft: JALEEL McLAUGHLIN, Denver Broncos
Regardless of being an undrafted free agent, McLaughlin has generated nothing however raves from his teaching employees and the group’s beat reporters since Day 1. He made the Broncos’ 2023 roster, then topped all operating backs (minimal 75 makes an attempt) in yards after contact per rush (2.26) and was second in yards per carry (5.4) and fourth in big-play runs (15.8%). Denver’s depth chart is equally cluttered as final 12 months’s, nevertheless it additionally lacks an elite, rock-solid No. 1 again to dam McLaughlin’s path to taking part in time. If he retains wowing the employees, he may start the season as Javonte Williams’ major backup, with a very good probability at urgent Williams for normal obligation.
Daniel Dopp: Zamir White, Las Vegas RaidersTyler Fulghum: David Montgomery, Detroit LionsEric Karabell: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (Do not overlook him.)Liz Loza: Jaleel McLaughlin, BroncosEric Moody: Tyjae Spears, TitansField Yates: TREY BENSON, Arizona Cardinals
One factor I imagine we do not focus sufficient on in the course of the offseason is gamers who aren’t more likely to have season-long worth — however could have worth for a pocket of video games. Benson matches into that class, as he enters because the backup to a really succesful starter in James Conner, however a starter who has by no means performed a full season. I imagine Benson could have a task when Conner is wholesome and obtainable, but when a state of affairs happens wherein Benson is required for spot duties for a number of video games, I’ve zero doubt he’ll shine as a starter. He has lots of dynasty worth. He is a baller with an actual path to a beginning position in 2025.
Operating again busts
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
Stephania Bell: Kyren Williams, RamsMatt Bowen: TONY POLLARD, Titans
Pollard dealt with an elevated workload in 2023 because the Dallas Cowboys’ lead again, seeing a career-high 307 touches, however the general manufacturing (13.1 PPG) fell wanting expectations. Pollard lacked effectivity as a runner, averaging 4.0 yards per carry whereas changing simply three of 13 carries contained in the 5-yard line for touchdowns. Sure, Pollard’s receiving expertise (52 receptions final season) give him a bump as a possible lower-tier flex, however he now joins a backfield share in Tennessee with Tyjae Spears. And I see extra worth in concentrating on Spears, who additionally has dual-threat traits, at a decrease ADP.
Mike Clay: De’VON ACHANE, Dolphins
Achane as a second-round fantasy decide is wild to me. His rookie-season effectivity was nowhere within the neighborhood of sustainable (7.8 yards per carry and 11 TDs on 130 touches), and it is no lock that he’ll see a considerable enhance in utilization. Achane cleared 12 touches solely 3 times as a rookie and can nonetheless be sharing work with Raheem Mostert and rookie Jaylen Wright. At 5-foot-8, 188 kilos, Achane was all the time anticipated to be a situational again and, particularly after his damage woes as a rookie, that does not determine to alter any time quickly.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans SaintsDaniel Dopp: Aaron Jones, Minnesota VikingsTyler Fulghum: Aaron Jones, VikingsEric Karabell: Tony Pollard, TitansLiz Loza: RACHAAD WHITE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
White was fantasy’s RB4 general on the shut 2023. Quantity was key to White’s fantasy success, as he recorded 272 carries (RB2) and hauled in 64 grabs (RB4) final 12 months. The Bucs’ major ball service was an ultraefficient receiver (8.6 YPR, RB5). As a rusher, nonetheless, his efforts weren’t practically as spectacular, as he registered an alarming 3.6 YPC (RB36). After dealing with such a hefty workload, it is unlikely that White’s effectivity will enhance in 2024. The addition of fourth-round choice Bucky Irving (who’s an ace pass-catching RB) additionally figures to chop into White’s alternatives. For fantasy functions, contemplate White extra of a high-end RB2 than an RB1 in his third NFL marketing campaign.
Eric Moody: Javonte Williams, BroncosField Yates: Rachaad White, Buccaneers
Extensive receiver sleepers
Stephania Bell: Ladd McConkey, ChargersMatt Bowen: George Pickens, Pittsburgh SteelersMike Clay: JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njigba was extraordinarily overvalued in 2023 drafts, however now could be the time to take the late-round low cost. Although he wasn’t a very good fantasy possibility as a rookie, JSN quietly put collectively a strong 63-628-4 receiving line. It is affordable to suppose he’ll overtake 32-year-old Tyler Lockett on the goal totem pole in Seattle’s new-look offense, which might vault the 22-year-old into, at the least, the WR3 dialogue.
Tristan H. Cockcroft: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SeahawksDaniel Dopp: Jayden Reed, Inexperienced Bay PackersTyler Fulghum: DIONTAE JOHNSON, Panthers
Investing within the Panthers’ offense after 2023’s catastrophe just isn’t for the fantasy faint of coronary heart. Think about it a chance to purchase the most affordable clear-cut No. 1 extensive receiver within the league. Johnson is the unquestioned WR1 on this offense. He has earned 8.3 targets per recreation in his profession. Over the previous two seasons, his Open Rating of 94 ranks greatest within the NFL (for each route run, Open Rating assesses the chance a receiver would be capable to full a catch, conditional on if he have been focused.). Is not that precisely what Bryce Younger wants? Somebody who simply will get open? We noticed Adam Thielen have a dominant stretch of soccer because the Panthers’ WR1 in 2023, and he was 33 years previous. Add in Dave Canales as the brand new head coach and playcaller — contemplating what he did for Geno Smith’s profession in Seattle and Baker Mayfield’s in Tampa years prior — and this passing assault needs to be considerably higher. The Panthers seemingly will not be taking part in with a lead fairly often, so Johnson may very well be a “Rubbish Time King,” as effectively.
Eric Karabell: DeAndre Hopkins, TitansLiz Loza: Rashid Shaheed, SaintsEric Moody: Jameson Williams, LionsField Yates: Ladd McConkey, Chargers
Extensive receiver busts
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Stephania Bell: DK Metcalf, SeahawksMatt Bowen: Calvin Ridley, TitansMike Clay: Jayden Reed, PackersTristan H. Cockcroft: Amari Cooper, BrownsDaniel Dopp: AMARI COOPER, Browns
Final season, Cooper noticed 8.4 targets per recreation, the very best of his profession, however the Browns simply dedicated over $40 million in assured cash to Jerry Jeudy, who’s 5 years youthful than Cooper, and issued lofty expectations for the gifted, younger WR. They’re nonetheless dedicated to David Njoku’s 8.3 targets per recreation (simply 0.1 lower than Cooper) and sadly have a quarterback who has seemed like a shell of his former famous person self, clocking in as QB25 in passing touchdowns and QB30 in passing yards since coming back from his 11-game suspension in 2022. Unhealthy QB play and elevated goal competitors means I am staying away in 2024.
Tyler Fulghum: Ladd McConkey, ChargersEric Karabell: Malik Nabers, New York GiantsLiz Loza: George Pickens, SteelersEric Moody: KEENAN ALLEN, Bears
Allen’s spectacular stats (9.4 targets and 16.6 fantasy factors per recreation) over the previous 11 seasons with the Chargers are well-known. Nevertheless, he is now 32 and might be catching passes from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in a crowded extensive receiver room that features D.J. Moore and rookie Rome Odunze. It is also value noting that solely 11 extensive receivers since 2000 have scored 225 or extra fantasy factors throughout their age-32 season. With that in thoughts, Allen’s greatest fantasy days are in all probability behind him.
Subject Yates: Calvin Ridley, Titans
Tight finish sleepers
Stephania Bell: KYLE PITTS, Falcons
How does one go from a bust one 12 months to a sleeper the subsequent? For starters, change the pinnacle coach, usher in a brand new offensive coordinator in Robinson (of the Sean McVay teaching tree), change middling QB play with probably the most savvy veteran throwers within the league and, above all, begin the season wholesome. This was by no means about Pitts’ expertise; he proved that in his rookie season when he amassed over 1,000 receiving yards. Sadly, final 12 months appeared doomed earlier than it even started, as his restoration from a surgical procedure that turned out to be extra complicated than initially reported (MCL/PCL) lingered into the season. His delayed return to efficiency coupled with a irritating (lack of) utilization of his skill-set left him as TE13 on the finish of 2023. However with offensive weapons akin to Bijan Robinson and Drake London to occupy defenders, an anticipated improve of 11 personnel deployment and a QB who can distribute the ball effectively, Pitts may lastly see numbers reflective of what he was projected to be all alongside.
Matt Bowen: Jake Ferguson, CowboysMike Clay: David Njoku, BrownsTristan H. Cockcroft: LUKE MUSGRAVE, Packers
Sam LaPorta was way more the exception than the rule when it comes to rookie tight finish improvement. The leap to the NFL is a major one, and sometimes you get outcomes like Musgrave’s, wherein he averaged 7.3 PPR fantasy factors and missed six video games due to a lacerated kidney. Nonetheless, the Packers noticed sufficient in him that they stored the positional establishment (Tucker Kraft is Musgrove’s solely competitors) in an offense whose arrow is pointing up. Musgrave is the tight finish you may get on the draft’s very finish who may sneak in there with borderline top-10 numbers if all the pieces clicks.
Daniel Dopp: Kyle Pitts, FalconsTyler Fulghum: Jonnu Smith, DolphinsEric Karabell: Pat Freiermuth, SteelersLiz Loza: Ben Sinnott, CommandersEric Moody: Cade Otton, BuccaneersField Yates: BROCK BOWERS, Raiders
There’s a pragmatic case to be cautious of Bowers’ rookie season fantasy influence. The Raiders have a quarterback query mark, a megastar receiver in Davante Adams and a very good No. 2 wideout (Jakobi Meyers) which are positive to command loads of targets (Adams ranked second within the NFL with 175 final season), and in addition of be aware is rookie tight ends’ normal lack of fantasy stardom (LaPorta had different concepts in 2023). The case for Bowers being a sleeper is that he joins Pitts as the 2 most spectacular rookie tight finish prospects we have seen in a very long time (and bear in mind, Pitts had the second-most receiving yards by a rookie tight finish ever). It is a expertise play right here, however I am prepared to throw a late-round dart on a participant as spectacular as Bowers.
Tight finish busts
Stephania Bell: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia EaglesMatt Bowen: David Njoku, BrownsMike Clay: Dallas Goedert (reluctantly), EaglesTristan H. Cockcroft: David Njoku, BrownsDaniel Dopp: TRAVIS KELCE, Chiefs
Kelce has been the king of the tight finish place for the higher a part of a decade, ending as TE1 in FPPG for six consecutive seasons. However all good issues should come to an finish. Kelce noticed his manufacturing slip by nearly 100 fantasy factors in 2023, and in 2024 the place is as deep as ever. LaPorta, Trey McBride and Dalton Kincaid are right here to usher in a brand new wave of pass-catching tight ends, Oh, and Evan Engram simply set the report for essentially the most receptions in a season (116). And remember Mark Andrews, Pitts, Bowers, and many others. It is not arduous to ascertain a situation the place the 34-year previous, who turns 35 in October, may fall from the highest of the place to center and even again of the highest 10, which makes him a significant bust candidate given his present ADP as one of many high two tight ends off of the board.
Tyler Fulghum: Trey McBride, Arizona CardinalsEric Karabell: KYLE PITTS, Falcons
As productive as Pitts was a rookie, he nonetheless has solely six landing catches in 44 NFL video games, and it feels too handy in charge this all on unhealthy luck and rotten quarterback play. Little doubt he’s expert, however Atlanta has higher gamers who should contact the soccer. Relying on Pitts to ship TE1 stats isn’t any positive factor.
Liz Loza: Travis Kelce, Kansas Metropolis ChiefsEric Moody: Cole Kmet, BearsField Yates: Kyle Pitts, Falcons
2024 breakout gamers
Stephania Bell: Bijan Robinson, FalconsMatt Bowen: ZAY FLOWERS, Baltimore Ravens
As a rookie in 2023, Flowers averaged 12.9 PPG, and he closed out the season with 19 or extra factors in 4 of his closing video games. He is a dynamic, three-level goal with ball-carrier imaginative and prescient to provide within the open discipline, as 45.1% of his receiving yards got here after the catch. In Todd Monken’s passing scheme, which creates area each vertically and horizontally, Flowers is ready as much as submit constant numbers in his sophomore season, which can put him within the combine as a WR2.
Mike Clay: Marvin Harrison Jr., CardinalsTristan H. Cockcroft: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo BillsDaniel Dopp: George Pickens, SteelersTyler Fulghum: Jameson Williams, LionsEric Karabell: Zamir White, RaidersLiz Loza: Dalton Kincaid, BillsEric Moody: DRAKE LONDON, Falcons
London is lastly free from Arthur Smith’s run-heavy scheme, the place he could not even crack the highest 20 in targets throughout his first two seasons, and is now in a main place to hit profession highs throughout the board, catching passes from Kirk Cousins in Robinson’s new offensive scheme. Robinson, who was the Rams’ quarterbacks coach and passing recreation coordinator, ought to get essentially the most out of his receivers. Cousins’ high receiver with the Vikings averaged 9.1 targets and 18.1 fantasy factors per recreation, offering a glimpse of what London may obtain.
Subject Yates: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
