It is one of many questions I get requested most frequently through the offseason.
“Who is that this 12 months’s Puka Nacua? Or Kyren Williams?”
It isn’t a easy query to reply as a result of no two situations are precisely alike. However there are clearly comparable gamers in comparable conditions. And, if the folks need comparisons, comparisons they shall have!
The method right here was easy: I jotted down every of 2023’s high breakout gamers and got here up with a brief record of gamers who match an identical profile as they enter 2024. Beneath is evaluation of every participant who most closely fits the invoice, in addition to the opposite gamers who landed on the brief record.
Notice that this isn’t my means of definitively predicting that these gamers will certainly get away this season. Once more, it is merely the gamers positioned to take action as a product of touchdown in an identical state of affairs to these gamers who exploded onto the fantasy scene final season.
This season’s Sam LaPorta: TE Brock Bowers
LaPorta achieved the uncommon feat of robust TE1 manufacturing as a rookie.
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Not solely did LaPorta have a powerful rookie season, he paced all tight ends in fantasy factors. Bowers is an extended shot to achieve that milestone and, to be fairly sincere, even reaching the highest 10 shall be powerful (LaPorta, Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts have delivered the one top-10 fantasy campaigns by a rookie TE over the previous decade).
Nonetheless, if anybody on this rookie TE class can get there, it is No. 13 choose Bowers. The Georgia product is an elite prospect with terrific pace, arms, route operating and RAC means. He caught at the least 56 passes in all three collegiate seasons and scored 26 TDs in 40 video games. Bowers will instantly function as one in all Las Vegas’ high offensive targets.
This season’s C.J. Stroud: QB Caleb Williams
A giant passing season led Stroud to a QB1 fantasy marketing campaign as a rookie.
Stroud defied the chances, posting solely the third top-12 fantasy marketing campaign by a first-round rookie QB over the previous decade (Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert have been the others). Solely three first-round QBs reached 4,000 cross yards and two hit 25 cross TDs, which exhibits how powerful it’s for even one of the best prospects to place up massive numbers with their arms in 12 months 1.
Regardless of the powerful odds, first general choose Williams has pretty much as good a shot as any rookie QB we have seen on the sphere. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner is stepping right into a loaded offense that options maybe the league’s greatest WR room (DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze) and he has the power so as to add all-important fantasy worth together with his legs (206 carries, 1,586 yards, 27 TDs in school).
Different candidates: Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix
This season’s Puka Nacua: WR Troy Franklin
Nacua was a Day 3 rookie who shortly emerged as a featured goal and fantasy starter.
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You recognize I needed to go right here, however let’s be sincere: Puka Nacua 2.0 is an excessive lengthy shot. Over the previous decade, Nacua is the one rookie WR not chosen within the first three rounds to publish a top-15 fantasy marketing campaign. In truth, solely three others even managed a top-45 season (Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darius Slayton).
Although I haven’t got the center to foretell a season pretty much as good as what Nacua delivered, there are some Day 3 rookies in a great place for 12 months 1 manufacturing. Franklin involves thoughts, because the Oregon product is — very similar to Nacua — becoming a member of a WR room with an excellent No. 1 (Courtland Sutton) however underwhelming competitors in any other case (Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds). Franklin posted a powerful 81 catches, 1,383 yards and 14 TDs in 2023, and his 45% air yard share was tops on this 12 months’s rookie class. Deep-leaguers ought to contemplate him with a late choose.
Different candidates: Devontez Walker, Javon Baker, Bub Means
This season’s Breece Corridor/Rachaad White: RB Tyjae Spears
Corridor and White have been 12 months 2 breakout RBs who noticed heavy quantity and shortly emerged as lineup locks.
Corridor and White each completed as top-five fantasy backs and, whereas that is perhaps a tricky ask for Spears, it is doable. The 2023 third-round choose out-snapped future Corridor of Famer Derrick Henry in eight video games as a rookie and, whereas he was restricted as a rusher (100 carries), he was a significant component within the passing recreation (high 12 amongst RBs in targets, receptions and receiving yards).
Spears can have a brand new operating mate this season, with Henry out and Tony Pollard in. The previous Cowboys lead again can have a job, however the extent of it’s to be decided after he thrived as a rotational again throughout 2019-22 however struggled as a characteristic again in 2023. If Spears was in a position to produce with Henry within the combine, it stands to motive he ought to see extra work and ship extra fantasy manufacturing with the inferior Pollard as his competitors.
Different candidates: Kendre Miller, Chase Brown, Eric Grey, Roschon Johnson
This season’s Kyren Williams: RB Zamir White
Williams took possession of a featured again position and turned massive quantity into an elite fantasy season.
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Whereas it took Williams just one recreation to run away from Cam Akers because the Rams’ lead again, you might make the case that White claimed the job in Las Vegas late final season. With Josh Jacobs sidelined for 4 video games, White delivered 4 consecutive top-20 fantasy outings. He was eleventh amongst RBs regardless of scoring just one TD through the span. He averaged 21.0 carries and three.3 targets per recreation throughout these 4 weeks, which is strikingly just like Williams’ 19.0 carries and 4.0 targets per recreation averages final season.
With Jacobs in Inexperienced Bay, White’s foremost competitors for touches embrace newcomer Alexander Mattison (who stumbled in a lead-back position in Minnesota final season) and passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah. If the 24-year-old proves the actual deal, an RB1 marketing campaign is on the desk.
Different candidates: Tyjae Spears, Zack Moss, J.Ok. Dobbins
This season’s Anthony Richardson: QB Jayden Daniels
Richardson used his legs to supply high-end fantasy numbers as a rookie.
This comparability relates, after all, to the rushing-fueled elite fantasy output supplied by Richardson, not his damage struggles (4 video games performed). Like Richardson, Daniels has the athleticism to place up big-time numbers together with his legs. The LSU product posted a 113-1,230-10 dashing line final season, which works out to 10.9 yards per carry. Daniels additionally enters the league having delivered an elite passing season, with 40 passing TDs to solely 4 INTs in addition to class-best marks in YPA (11.7) and complete QBR (95.6) throughout his Heisman marketing campaign in 2023.
Daniels would be the Week 1 starter in Washington and can profit from coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced offense and a stable group of targets led by Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Austin Ekeler.
Different candidate: Drake Maye
This season’s Raheem Mostert: RB Gus Edwards
Mostert was a committee again who was fantasy related as a result of large TD output.
I am unsure anybody is extra conservative with landing projections (or talks about TD regression to the imply) greater than me, however that does not imply I am not conscious of gamers who might be sneaky bets to defy the chances and publish a hefty TD price. Mostert (21 TDs on 234 touches) did precisely that in 2023, and maybe Edwards can observe go well with because the chief of a projected committee backfield for the Chargers.
Like Mostert, Edwards is a veteran again (29) who has been very environment friendly as a rusher since coming into the league (4.86 profession YPC). He is additionally not a lot as an element as a receiver (39 profession targets) however has good dimension (6-foot-1, 238 kilos), which led to massive utilization on the aim line in 2023. Edwards led all backs with 19 carries inside opponents’ 5-yard line, which helped him to 13 TDs (third-most). Frank Gore (at age 29 and 30) delivered two nine-TD seasons through the Jim Harbaugh period in San Francisco, so maybe Edwards can accomplish that as properly.
Different candidate: Jaylen Wright
This season’s Nico Collins: WR Drake London
After a sluggish begin to his profession, Collins emerged as a fantasy star following a QB improve.
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Collins confirmed flashes throughout his first two NFL seasons, and whereas the 2021 third-rounder’s output wasn’t almost pretty much as good as what London has delivered in his first two seasons, there isn’t any doubt that each have been restricted statistically by QB play. Issues modified for Collins with Stroud within the combine in Houston final season, and London figures to observe an identical trajectory with Kirk Cousins underneath heart in Atlanta this season.
London has a hefty 26% goal share since he was drafted, however due to Atlanta’s run-heavy, QB-deficient offenses, he completed outdoors the highest 20 in targets, receptions, yards and TDs in each seasons. In an offense led by Zac Robinson (as an alternative of Arthur Smith) and with Cousins underneath heart, a 26% share in 2024 would launch London (the primary WR picked within the 2022 draft) into the WR1 combine.
Different candidates: George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy
This season’s Trey McBride: TE Ben Sinnott
McBride was a current second-round choose who, after a sluggish begin, lastly overtook Zach Ertz en path to big-time fantasy output.
It took McBride, the primary tight finish drafted in 2022, a season and a half to overhaul Ertz, but when issues go properly for Sinnott, the Kansas State product ought to clear 33-year-old Ertz someday this season. The second-rounder (6-foot-4, 250 kilos) confirmed properly athletically on the mix (class-best vertical, broad and three-cone) and paced this class with a 9.2-yard common depth of goal in three collegiate seasons. Count on a sluggish begin, but when Sinnott lives as much as his draft standing, he may rise as excessive as third (or even perhaps second) on the staff in goal share within the second half of the season.
Different candidates: Theo Johnson, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Erick All Jr.
This season’s Rashee Rice: WR Keon Coleman
Rice emerged right into a fantasy asset in a weak WR room on an excellent offense.
Identical as Rice, Coleman joins the league as a second-round choose and is an intriguing prospect because of a good touchdown spot. Buffalo stated goodbye to high receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis through the offseason, changing the duo with Coleman and journeymen Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool. Former fifth-round choose Khalil Shakir can even be an element, however all in all, this isn’t an intimidating group.
A sluggish begin for Coleman is affordable to anticipate (he turned 21 in Might), however he is a giant, robust receiver with big-play means and a clean path to a No. 1 gig in an offense led by Josh Allen. We should not be shocked if he shortly emerges as a lineup lock.
Different candidates: Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey
This season’s Jordan Love/Brock Purdy: QB Bryce Younger
Love and Purdy have been younger QBs who recorded their first QB1 fantasy campaigns.
Concentrating on second-year quarterbacks (particularly ones drafted within the first spherical) is one in all my favourite pastimes. It would not all the time work out (2023 Kenny Pickett), but it surely often does.
Take into account the next names: Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2018, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in 2019, Kyler Murray in 2020, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in 2021, and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in 2022.
Not one of the 10 quarterbacks I simply listed completed higher than eighth in fantasy factors as a rookie (solely Murray and Herbert have been even high 20), however all 10 completed eighth or higher in 12 months 2.
Younger had a tricky rookie season largely as a result of a weak supporting solid (his effectivity when throwing to Adam Thielen was stable, but it surely was horrific to everybody else) and a midseason teaching change. This season, he’ll have higher targets (Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks have been added) and a brand new, offensive-minded coach in Dave Canales, who’s recent off main Baker Mayfield to his greatest season. Younger should not be missed as a late-round flier.
Different candidate: Will Levis
