ESPN has launched its 2024 Soccer Energy Index (FPI) rankings and projections, and our faculty soccer reporters are right here to interrupt them down.
The rankings, for the uninitiated, embody forecasts for each group’s report, its possibilities of successful a convention title and naturally, its likelihood to make the expanded 12-team playoff and win the nationwide championship.
The FPI is an influence score that tracks every group’s energy relative to a median FBS squad. Groups are rated on offense, protection and particular groups, with the values representing factors per sport.
You possibly can learn Neil Paine’s takeaways right here and get our workers’s evaluation under.
RnkTeamConferenceFPI1.GeorgiaSEC26.82.OregonBig Ten24.53.TexasSEC22.94.Ohio StateBig Ten22.25.AlabamaSEC21.96.Penn StateBig Ten19.87.Notre DameIndependent198.OklahomaSEC17.29.TennesseeSEC16.610.MissouriSEC15.411.Florida StateACC15.112.MichiganBig Ten14.913.LSUSEC14.614.Texas A&MSEC13.615.ClemsonACC12.216.Ole MissSEC1217.KansasBig 1211.218.USCBig Ten11.119.AuburnSEC10.120.FloridaSEC10.121.LouisvilleACC1022.Kansas StateBig 121023.MiamiACC9.624.ArizonaBig 129.225.SMUACC926.Oklahoma StateBig 127.627.UtahBig 127.528.NC StateACC7.529.Texas TechBig 127.130.TCUBig 127.131.WashingtonBig Ten6.732.UCFBig 126.233.South CarolinaSEC6.234.KentuckySEC6.235.West VirginiaBig 12636.ColoradoBig 12637.IowaBig Ten5.638.Oregon StatePac-125.339.WisconsinBig Ten540.UCLABig Ten4.941.NebraskaBig Ten4.842.North CarolinaACC4.743.CaliforniaACC4.744.ArkansasSEC4.545.RutgersBig Ten4.146.MarylandBig Ten4.147.Iowa StateBig 123.848.Boise StateMountain West3.749.Mississippi StateSEC3.450.Virginia TechACC351.James MadisonSun Belt2.652.DukeACC2.353.PittsburghACC2.254.Georgia TechACC2.155.BaylorBig 121.956.UTSAAAC1.657.NorthwesternBig Ten1.358.Boston CollegeACC159.StanfordACC0.760.PurdueBig Ten0.561.MinnesotaBig Ten0.462.IllinoisBig Ten0.263.Arizona StateBig 12-0.364.Washington StatePac-12-0.565.CincinnatiBig 12-0.866.MemphisAAC-0.867.Appalachian StateSun Belt-0.968.Michigan StateBig Ten-169.TulaneAAC-1.170.SyracuseACC-1.271.Wake ForestACC-1.372.VirginiaACC-1.473.BYUBig 12-1.574.Fresno StateMountain West-1.675.TroySun Belt-276.VanderbiltSEC-2.277.IndianaBig Ten-2.478.HoustonBig 12-2.779.LibertyC-USA-380.San Diego StateMountain West-3.481.San Jose StateMountain West-3.882.Texas StateSun Belt-4.783.Florida AtlanticAAC-4.884.South AlabamaSun Belt-4.985.MarshallSun Belt-5.286.UNLVMountain West-5.487.Air ForceMountain West-5.588.South FloridaAAC-5.589.Georgia StateSun Belt-5.590.Miami (OH)MAC-5.691.Coastal CarolinaSun Belt-6.192.LouisianaSun Belt-6.193.Jacksonville StateC-USA-6.394.East CarolinaAAC-6.495.RiceAAC-6.696.Georgia SouthernSun Belt-6.797.Arkansas StateSun Belt-6.798.UABAAC-799.WyomingMountain West-7100.ToledoMAC-7101.TulsaAAC-7102.Utah StateMountain West-7.4103.Bowling GreenMAC-7.6104.Southern MissSun Belt-8105.Colorado StateMountain West-8.4106.North TexasAAC-8.4107.Center TennesseeC-USA-9108.Outdated DominionSun Belt-9.1109.Western KentuckyC-USA-9.3110.UConnIndependent-9.3111.UTEPC-USA-9.8112.HawaiiMountain West-9.8113.OhioMAC-9.9114.Northern IllinoisMAC-9.9115.Central MichiganMAC-10.5116.CharlotteAAC-10.6117.New MexicoMountain West-10.8118.BuffaloMAC-10.8119.Western MichiganMAC-10.8120.NevadaMountain West-11.2121.ArmyAAC-11.9122.Louisiana TechC-USA-11.9123.Ball StateMAC-12.6124.NavyAAC-12.9125.UMassIndependent-12.9126.Japanese MichiganMAC-13.4127.New Mexico StateC-USA-13.5128.AkronMAC-14129.UL MonroeSun Belt-14130.Sam HoustonC-USA-14.3131.Kennesaw StateC-USA-15132.Florida InternationalC-USA-16.5133.TempleAAC-17.7134.Kent StateMAC-18.6
Which group is the FPI undervaluing?
Chris Low: Oklahoma State at No. 26 is means too low. After all, coach Mike Gundy and the Cowboys have been at their greatest when not as a lot is predicted of them. They’ve every part in place to win the Large 12 championship this season and earn a spot within the playoff after taking part in within the Large 12 championship sport a yr in the past. The Pokes return 21 starters, together with the nation’s main rusher from a yr in the past, Ollie Gordon II, seven offensive linemen who made a number of begins final season, quarterback Alan Bowman, who handed for 3,460 yards in 2023 and big-play linebackers Collin Oliver and Nickolas Martin, who mixed for 31.5 tackles for loss a yr in the past.
Adam Rittenberg: Utah appears low at 27, particularly if — and it is an enormous if, as we came upon final season — quarterback Cam Rising’s knee damage is actually behind him. Rising provides Utah a championship-level quarterback to regular an offense that additionally returns standout tight finish Brant Kuithe from damage, and has upgraded the extensive receiver spot by way of portal additions similar to USC’s Dorian Singer. Utah returns most of its defensive entrance seven, and whereas the secondary has some query marks, Zemaiah Vaughn’s return will assist. Maybe most necessary, coach Kyle Whittingham and far of his workers have navigated convention transition earlier than, and the transfer to the Large 12 should not be as turbulent because the one they produced from the Mountain West to the Pac-12.
David Hale: Children are taught that, if you contact the range and burn your hand, you will not contact the range once more. Nicely, right here I’m, touching the range and saying NC State is lastly going to have its breakthrough season. I do know, I do know. We have been right here earlier than. The components goes: If the Wolfpack have excessive expectations, they disappoint. In the event that they’re flying underneath the radar, they’re surprisingly good. Who cares? This can be a new period of school soccer and, after the boys’s and girls’s basketball groups made a Remaining 4 and an NC State alumnus received her second Cooper’s Hill cheese-rolling competitors, it is time for Dave Doeren’s crew to step up. With the additions of transfers quarterback Grayson McCall, tight finish Justin Joly, working again Jordan Waters, receiver Noah Rogers and offensive lineman Zeke Correll, the offense is as loaded with expertise because it has ever been in Doeren’s 11-year tenure. Tony Gibson’s defenses are at all times glorious, and the schedule units up properly for the Pack. So why does the FPI have them at No. 28, behind 5 different ACC groups? As a result of the FPI is aware of to not contact the range once more.
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
Paolo Uggetti: I could not agree extra with Adam on Utah at 27, and I really feel considerably related about Arizona at 24. Sure, I do know the Wildcats have a model new coach in Brent Brennan after shedding Jedd Fisch to Washington, however they return quarterback Noah Fifita and extensive receiver Tetairoa McMillan — a tandem that would upend the Large 12 of their debut yr. Fifita has some sleeper Heisman potential, whereas McMillan is a part of a fairly loaded extensive receiver room. If Brennan can get the Wildcats’ protection to not be somnambulant this season, there’s an important likelihood their offense is nice sufficient to hold them into being higher than the Twenty fourth-best group within the nation.
Jake Trotter: Kansas State is perennially undervalued and underrated, and this season seems to be no totally different. The Wildcats boast one of many extra intriguing backfields within the nation with ascending quarterback Avery Johnson paired with returning 1,000-yard rusher DJ Giddens and Colorado working again switch Dylan Edwards, a superb pass-catcher out of the backfield. With Texas and Oklahoma now within the SEC, the Wildcats could have a strong likelihood to win the Large 12 and make their debut within the revamped CFP.
Mark Schlabach: Nonetheless no love for Lane Kiffin, huh? I had the Rebels at No. 6 in my post-spring energy rankings — the FPI has them 10 spots decrease. Ole Miss picked up a number of transfers who ought to make an instantaneous influence — defensive finish Princely Umanmielen (Florida), defensive deal with Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), receiver Antwane Wells Jr. (South Carolina), tailback Jacory Croskey-Merritt (New Mexico) and others. We all know the offense goes to be potent with quarterback Jaxson Dart returning, and Kiffin appears centered on bettering his protection. Ole Miss ought to go 4-0 in opposition to its nonconference schedule (Furman, Center Tennessee and Georgia Southern at residence and Wake Forest on the street) and it does not should play Alabama within the common season for a change.
Which group is the FPI overvaluing?
Rittenberg: Oklahoma at No. 8 would not concern me as a lot if the Sooners had been staying within the Large 12, somewhat than transferring to the SEC. The mixture of a younger quarterback (Jackson Arnold), two new major coordinators (Seth Littrell and Zac Alley), a protection that hasn’t actually discovered its means underneath coach Brent Venables and a schedule that options Alabama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee and Missouri, along with rival Texas, units off a couple of alarm bells. Oklahoma has achieved properly within the portal and returns some star energy on protection, however I do not see a top-10 end this yr in Norman.
Hale: Missouri had 4 wins by a landing or much less final season, received Ohio State in a bowl sport the Buckeyes weren’t intent on successful and had been carried by a exceptional season from Cody Schrader and a can’t-miss kicker in Harrison Mevis, each gone in 2024. This is not to say Missouri will not be good once more, however No. 10 within the nation? The Tigers have not had back-to-back top-10 seasons since 1968 and 1969. Sure, the schedule is fairly accommodating by SEC requirements — Alabama and Oklahoma are the one energy convention opponents who received at the very least eight video games final yr — however this nonetheless appears like an overreach based mostly on final yr’s stunning success. Each different group within the prime 15 can be thought of a standard blue blood. Missouri is the outlier. And if I had been choosing an outlier as a top-10 program out of the SEC, I would go together with Ole Miss (No. 16) as a substitute.
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Trotter: There’s loads of pleasure in Faculty Station for the Mike Elko period, and rightfully so. Elko labored wonders with far much less expertise at Duke. However the Aggies are coming off one other middling season and have not reached double-digit victories in a season since their SEC debut in 2012 when Johnny Manziel received the Heisman Trophy. Elko ought to put the Aggies heading in the right direction after Jimbo Fisher’s disastrous tenure as head coach. However as previous Texas A&M groups have confirmed, offseason hype does not essentially translate to successful video games within the fall.
Schlabach: Florida went 11-14 in coach Billy Napier’s first two seasons, and I am undecided the Gators shall be a lot better in 2024 due to their brutal schedule. Florida performs nonconference video games in opposition to Miami and Florida State, and faces a brutal SEC slate that features street video games at Tennessee and Texas and residential video games in opposition to Texas A&M, LSU and Ole Miss — in addition to its annual showdown in opposition to Georgia in Jacksonville, Florida. The Gators misplaced tailback Trevor Etienne, who transferred to Georgia, and main receiver Ricky Pearsall, who left for the NFL. Quarterback Graham Mertz was environment friendly in his first season at Florida, however he was sacked 31 instances behind a foul offensive line. Napier blew up his defensive teaching workers after the Gators ranked 78th within the FBS in scoring protection (27.6 factors) and 71st in whole protection (382.3 yards).
Which energy convention group exterior the Prime 25 could make a CFP run?
Rittenberg: On the danger of repeating one in all my earlier solutions (Utah) or one in all C-Low’s (Oklahoma State), I am taking a reasonably sizable leap of religion — I am certain you’d agree, Hale — by choosing NC State, slotted at No. 28. The Wolfpack have not received an ACC title since 1979 and final reached 10 or extra victories in 2002, when Philip Rivers performed quarterback. However NC State has had the personnel to interrupt by way of, particularly on protection underneath coach Dave Doeren, and added switch quarterback Grayson McCall, who had 10,005 passing yards and 88 touchdowns at Coastal Carolina. The Wolfpack do not play Florida State, Louisville or SMU this season, and face a probably susceptible Clemson group early, albeit on the street. If McCall supplies a spark to enhance a protection returning cornerback Aydan White, finish Davin Vann and different standouts, NC State may make a shock league title push.
Trotter: Oklahoma State boasts the reigning Doak Walker Award winner in Gordon, a superb receiving duo in Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens, an skilled offensive line and a veteran QB in Bowman. Gundy’s groups virtually at all times enhance over the course of the season. And the Pokes not should stress over the Sooners standing in the best way. The Large 12 is extensive open with a number of potential contenders. However Oklahoma State has nearly as good an opportunity as anybody of popping out on prime.
Schlabach: I used to be a lot larger on Utah and NC State in my energy rankings than the FPI. What about West Virginia? The Mountaineers went 9-4 final season, taking the stress off embattled coach Neal Brown. West Virginia was fourth within the FBS in speeding (228.9 yards) in 2023, and tailback Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson are returning. Quarterback Garrett Greene is cellular and if he improves his accuracy, the offense shall be extra balanced. West Virginia’s offensive line allowed solely 10 sacks final season, fewest within the Large 12. The protection was constructed on stress, and the Mountaineers led the league with 33 sacks. Switch defensive deal with T.J. Jackson (Troy), defensive finish Ty French (Gardner-Webb) and cornerbacks TJ Crandall (Colorado State) and Ayden Garnes (Duquesne) ought to assist fill some holes.
Which group has a rating which will look odd now however shall be confirmed appropriate by finish of yr?
Low: Seeing Missouri at No. 10, which suggests the Tigers would seemingly be within the playoff, is perhaps a stretch in some folks’s eyes. However Eliah Drinkwitz has achieved a pleasant job of replenishing the roster after successful 11 video games final season, and Mizzou will once more be potent on offense with a protection that may depend on a number of high-profile transfers. Equally necessary is that the Tigers have what seems to be essentially the most manageable schedule within the SEC. They keep away from Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas. Their hardest nonconference contest is Boston Faculty at residence.
Hale: Let’s go off the board and counsel West Virginia may have a second in 2024. (Schlabach could also be on to one thing.) Bear in mind this time final yr when head coach Neal Brown railed in opposition to the idiots who picked his group to complete final within the Large 12? Yeah, he might have had a degree there. QB Garrett Greene made enormous strides and was among the many most underrated passers within the nation. The protection made strides, and Jahiem White was a revelation as a freshman, averaging shut to eight yards per carry. There’s so much to love right here, and the schedule units up comparatively properly, with two of the three largest exams — Kansas and Kansas State — coming at residence. The Large 12 is extensive open, and whereas West Virginia actually will not be the fashionable choose, it has come a great distance from the cellar.
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Uggetti: I do not know if USC at No. 18 appears to be like significantly odd proper now — maybe some would argue it is too excessive for a group that’s shedding No. 1 NFL draft choose Caleb Williams — however I feel that is about proper the place the Trojans ought to settle in when it is all stated and achieved. There is a sturdy perception inside the program that quarterback Miller Moss shall be a greater than succesful substitute for Williams, and the much-maligned protection needs to be much better than final yr’s unit underneath new defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn. However the schedule the Trojans face is a gauntlet. Not solely do they open the yr in Las Vegas in opposition to LSU, however additionally they play Michigan in Ann Arbor, host Penn State and end the yr with a street journey to Washington and a house matchup in opposition to Notre Dame. Tough street journeys to Minnesota and Maryland may additionally show to be more durable than they at the moment seem. Nonetheless, USC ought to — emphasis on “ought to” — have the expertise to complete inside the highest 20 by season’s finish.
Trotter: Penn State has been overshadowed by Ohio State and Michigan within the Large Ten. But whereas the Wolverines and Buckeyes have uncertainty at quarterback, the Nittany Lions have the highest returning QB within the league in Drew Allar, who threw 25 touchdowns with solely two interceptions final season. Might this be the yr that Penn State lastly will get over the Large Ten hump? A No. 6 rating may appear excessive. However the Nittany Lions have the items on either side of the ball to warrant such a bullish outlook.
Schlabach: Does any first-year coach face extra stress this season than Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, who has the unenviable job of changing Nick Saban, maybe the best coach in historical past? Alabama (No. 5) is not going to fall off a cliff just because Saban is gone. DeBoer has received all over the place he has been — he has a 104-12 report — and took Washington to the CFP Nationwide Championship sport final season. The offense goes to be superb with quarterback Jalen Milroe, receiver Germie Bernard and tailbacks Jamarion Miller and Justice Haynes main the best way. The Tide face an early stiff check at residence in opposition to Georgia on Sept. 28 and street video games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. However there’s loads of expertise left in Tuscaloosa for DeBoer to take the Tide again to the CFP.