Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Vegas 97

Final Combating Championship (UFC) Welterweight grapplers Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady will go to battle TONIGHT (Sat., Sept. 7, 2024) at UFC Vegas 97 inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

At 38 years of age, Burns enters his newest major occasion slot in a troublesome place. Using a two-fight shedding streak at that age is rarely nice, however “Durinho” does deserve some context: he injured his shoulder virtually instantly towards the present champion (particulars right here), and he was nearly 90 seconds from defeating Jack Della Maddalena — one other glorious fighter! — till ducking right into a nasty knee (watch highlights).

Clearly, Burns nonetheless has one thing left within the tank.

As for Brady, he was unfairly written off for shedding to Belal Muhammad. That loss isn’t trying so dangerous with hindsight, and he already appeared very dominant in his first bounce-back efficiency. Victory right here might elevate Brady into the Prime 5 and ensure that he’s an lively title risk at this stage of his profession.

Let’s take a better have a look at the betting odds and strategic keys for every athlete:

Burns vs. Brady Betting Odds

Gilbert Burns victory: -180
Gilbert Burns through TKO/KO/DQ: +400
Gilbert Burns through submission: +800
Gilbert Burns through choice: +500
Sean Brady victory: +150
Sean Brady through TKO/KO/DQ: +275
Sean Brady through submission: +1000
Sean Brady through choice: +150
Odds through DraftKings Sportsbook

How Burns Wins

Burns has developed from rising jiu-jitsu specialist into well-rounded veteran over time. The Brazilian continues to be glorious on the canvas, however he pairs these grappling abilities with highly effective overhands, heavy calf kicks, and a really bodily wrestling sport.

It is a actually attention-grabbing match up in that it’s onerous to see who holds which benefits. On paper, Burns is the higher grappler, however Brady may need a slight wrestling edge. Conversely, Burns undoubtedly hits tougher, which is considerably neutralized by Brady’s crisper boxing and sharp counters.

Probably the most definitive benefit for Burns I can see within the match up is consolation in a firefight. The one actual time that Brady was pressured right into a scrappy battle was towards Muhammad, and Brady fell aside within the second spherical. Burns, for higher or worse, has slugged it out with a who’s who of the Welterweight division.

He doesn’t at all times win, however he actually doesn’t break. If Burns can push a excessive tempo, get each himself and Brady fatigued, then begin winging heavy punches, it most likely works out properly for the veteran.

How Brady Wins

Brady is a extremely expert fighter. His transitional wrestling and grappling are lovely to look at, and he’s usually in a position to shut down very expert fighters together with his high sport. His boxing is genuinely fairly good too, a pleasant mixture of good combos and well-timed counters.

I believe a two-pronged assault can be greatest for Brady right here. He ought to undoubtedly check the defensive wrestling of Burns. It’s been a very long time since Burns was actually held all the way down to a loss (Sept. 2016 vs. Michel Prazeres to be particular), however Brady is an professional in that realm. He simply may be capable to drag Burns to the ground and maintain him there, notably since Burns is 38 and has suffered a number of accidents lately.

The opposite space the place Brady can discover success is on the counter, using his footwork and velocity to punish Burns’ simple offense. If he picks and chooses when to change, Brady ought to be capable to handle his personal tempo whereas nonetheless touchdown the higher pictures.

Burns vs. Brady Prediction

As with “Cannonier vs. Borralho” a pair weeks in the past, we’re a battle the place the chances can be swapped 12 or 24 months in the past.

Context be damned, it’s onerous to argue for 38 years outdated and two straight defeats towards a Prime 10 ranked expertise in his prime. Brady isn’t an ideal fighter, however he’s glorious at what he does and is aware of how you can observe a gameplan. The one query is that if Burns can replicate the Muhammad technique of relentless stress to pressure him into making errors.

There’s a easy purpose I believe he can’t: protection. Muhammad is a greater defensive fighter than Burns, and he nonetheless walked by means of a variety of clear pictures within the first spherical. I anticipate those self same punches to stun Burns and persuade him to ease off on the stress, at which level, there’s no purpose for Brady to collapse.

Crisp counter punches and the occasional takedown lead Brady to a call victory.

Prediction: Brady through choice (+150)

Do not forget that MMAmania.com will ship LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow protection of the complete UFC Vegas 97 battle card proper right here, beginning with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches on-line, that are scheduled to start at 4 p.m. ET, earlier than the principle card begin time at 7 p.m. ET (additionally on ESPN+).

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