For Gonzaga followers, the mere point out of Davidson basketball conjures one title: Stephen Curry. Again in 2008, a baby-faced Curry, swimming in an outsized jersey, torched the Zags for 40 factors, knocking them out of the NCAA Event. That sport is correct up there with the 2013 loss to Wichita State as probably the most “What the heck is occurring?!” moments in Gonzaga’s historical past. It was his huge popping out occasion and truthfully, it nonetheless stings.
Gonzaga vs Davidson in a match. What’s the worst that may occur?!?!
— Steven Karr (@SKarrG0) November 29, 2024
Fortunately for the Zags, the 2024 Davidson Wildcats aren’t the identical workforce they had been again then. And unluckily for the Wildcats, neither is Gonzaga.
Meet the Wildcats
The Wildcats are 5-1, recent off a 69-58 victory over Windfall within the Battle 4 Atlantis. Positive, they had been dismantled by Arizona within the opening spherical, shedding 104-71, however up thus far, Davidson has regarded like a legit match contender. A win towards Gonzaga would give them an enormous increase come March, and the boldness they gained from beating Windfall may make them harmful once they face Gonzaga down within the Bahamas.
Windfall vs Davidson
10,000 simulations utilizing adjusted effectivity efficiency from the final two video games solely.
Common Rating Windfall 81 (-11.5 o/u 150.5)Davidson 69
Windfall wins 81% of situations pic.twitter.com/6CuPKzX9RA
— FriarStats (@StatsFriar) November 28, 2024
Offensively, Davidson areas the ground nicely and depends closely on the three-ball. They’ve bought just a few sharpshooters who can get scorching from exterior in a rush, however defensively, they’re nonetheless figuring issues out.
Their standout participant is 6’10” Reed Bailey, who leads the workforce with 17 factors and 7 rebounds per sport. Whereas Arizona shut him down, he’s a power to be reckoned with when he finds his rhythm. Alongside Bailey, 6’7” Bobby Durkin is averaging 16.4 factors per sport and taking pictures 53% from past the arc. He dropped 20 factors on Windfall and held his personal towards Arizona regardless of the general low-scoring effort from his workforce.
Nevertheless, the true game-changer for Davidson has been Connor Kochera. He scored 20 towards Arizona and 22 towards Windfall, taking pictures a powerful 56.4% from the sphere and 90% from the road. If Gonzaga can disrupt Kochera’s move, they’ll have a a lot simpler time controlling the sport.
Though they received by 11 factors, Davidson’s win over Windfall wasn’t as shut because the rating suggests. The Wildcats shot 47% from the sphere, held Windfall to 31%, and dominated the paint 32-20. They gut-punched Windfall with a 16-2 run within the first half and outscored them 38-18 going into halftime. That being mentioned, when that very same workforce confronted Arizona’s dimension and athleticism, they crumbled. Davidson has but to face a workforce who pushes the tempo fairly like Gonzaga does, and their lack of bench depth and rigorous match schedule up thus far may make fatigue a significant component if the Bulldogs get the sting on the Wildcats.
Keys to the Sport
Comprise the Large 3 – Exterior of Kochera, Durkin, and Bailey, Davidson lacks depth in ability and athleticism. These three have accounted for 104 of Davidson’s final 140 factors during the last 2 video games. If Gonzaga can power them into foul bother, hold Bailey off the low block, and/or lock down the perimeter, the Wildcats don’t have a lot of a Plan B. Defensively, the Bulldogs might want to hold mucking issues up and keep aggressive within the passing lanes with out shedding observe of their task on ball display screen switches (it occurred just a few instances towards Indiana, but it surely’s clearly been a degree of emphasis and has been steadily enhancing all season). Good protection results in offense and that is the type of sport the Bulldogs may beat the Wildcats badly in transition.
Relaxation Up – Three video games in three days is brutal, even for faculty athletes. Gonzaga’s backcourt is working on fumes—Ryan Nembhard has spent solely three minutes on the bench since arriving within the Bahamas. Hickman and Battle aren’t faring significantly better, averaging over 33 minutes per sport, as nicely. Fatigue confirmed in Nembhard’s 5 turnovers towards Indiana. Granted, he additionally had 13 assists and 5 steals, but it surely’s nonetheless a uncommon stat for somebody with an 8:1 assist-to-turnover ratio up thus far.
Dusty Stromer’s Flip – If fatigue is the issue, recent legs are the answer. Dusty Stromer has been a non-factor in Nassau, taking simply 4 pictures and making all of 1. This might be his probability to step up and supply much-needed scoring from exterior and use his distinctive perimeter protection abilities to neutralize Davidson’s shooters.
Hold Feeding Ajayi – Each time Ajayi scores, you’ll be able to’t assist however marvel why he doesn’t get extra touches. Sure, he misses some straightforward ones, however he additionally makes tough pictures look easy together with his athleticism and energy. He’s a matchup nightmare for defenders of all sizes and styles, plain and easy. Coach Few must discover a approach to get Ajayi right into a scoring rhythm, even when it means letting him work one-on-one extra typically like he did in his time at Pepperdine; it’s definitely worth the collateral misses if the WCC’s reigning main scorer will get an opportunity to essentially discover his scoring contact alongside the best way.
Backside Line
Gonzaga’s offense towards Indiana was as balanced because it might be in the midst of a foul-fest. There have been a handful of lapses defensively and an entire lot of off-ball fouls to scrub up, however total the Bulldogs performed extra just like the Bulldogs than they did towards WVU. To beat Davidson, they’ll have to tighten their perimeter protection and restrict Bailey’s alternatives inside.
Finally, this sport may come right down to which workforce finest manages fatigue and maintains their composure on protection. If Gonzaga performs like they did towards Indiana, they need to be tremendous. But when they slip into their West Virginia type, Davidson may depart the Bahamas with a signature win.
Nevertheless one feels about this upcoming matchup, longtime Gonzaga followers know one factor: by no means underestimate a Davidson Wildcat.