Gonzaga vs. Nicholls State Preview

After weeks on the street, the Zags are lastly heading again to the consolation of the Kennel. Wednesday, December 18 at 6:00 PM Pacific Time, Gonzaga will tip off in opposition to Nicholls State within the McCarthy Athletic Middle, again in entrance of its loyal followers and all of the comforts of dwelling.

It’s been a troublesome stretch for the Bulldogs. Previously three weeks, they’ve dropped three video games. Two have been grueling time beyond regulation battles, and the opposite was only a single possession away from changing into a grueling time beyond regulation battle. All three losses have been heartbreakingly shut and really winnable video games for the Zags. Nonetheless, for a squad some predicted might stay undefeated, dropping three video games in such a brief span stings.

At their peak, this yr’s Zags have showcased moments of basketball brilliance that place them squarely within the High-5 dialog. Nevertheless, the rocky begin to the season has despatched their AP rating plummeting from #3 to #13. (Can we even name that “plummeting, although”?) We’ve seen this yr’s group grapple with a bunch of game-deciding points: personnel chemistry, teaching changes, foul hassle, late-game scoring, inside dominance, inconsistent taking pictures, and sluggishness in essential moments.

That mentioned, we’ve seen this film earlier than.

This occurred final yr, too…

Winter of 2023, the Zags have been struggling mightily. Between December 6 and January 12, Gonzaga went 4-5, struggling losses to Washington, San Diego State, UConn, and, most shockingly, Santa Clara. For the primary time since 2016, they fell out of the AP High 25 completely. Followers mourned. Clothes have been hire. Expletives flew. Hair was pulled. The sky, it appeared, was falling.

However then, the Zags pulled a rabbit out of the hat. They tailored, addressed their flaws, and closed the season wanting like a authentic Ultimate 4 contender.

This yr’s group returns 81% of its scoring from final season, a overwhelming majority of its personnel. In different phrases, the squad presently stumbling by December is basically the identical group that stumbled by final December—and likewise the identical squad that discovered a strategy to flourish when it mattered most.

These of us who’ve endured a winter in Spokane can attest that the chilly, darkish, and perpetually gray situations of December can sap the spirit. Add in a number of the most aggressive chilly and flu bugs identified to man circulating like wildfire, and who amongst us can say we’ve completely thrived by a whole winter within the Lilac Metropolis? It’s not an excuse, however it maybe makes issues a bit of extra comprehensible.

In fact, the dangerous climate and rumored sicknesses can’t utterly take the sting out of all of the tough basketball we’ve seen these days. However earlier than declaring doom and gloom, it’s value remembering these early-season stumbles aren’t unprecedented—and the Zags have a monitor document of discovering their stride when it counts.

(I’d refer you to this stellar article from Peter Woodburn from December of 2022 for some context on December-January in Zagville).

It’s time now for the Zags to reset, tune up, and start the work of cementing their identification as one of many nation’s high basketball groups, as a result of they completely are. The journey begins in opposition to Nicholls State.

The Matchup

The Colonels of Nicholls State presently boast a 7-4 document and sit atop the Southland Convention standings. Followers anticipating a simple, one-sided Bulldog bulldozing would possibly need to regulate their expectations. This may very well be an enlivening—and dare I say, enjoyable?—recreation for the Zags. Nicholls State is scrappy, high-energy, and chaos-loving. They lean into an aggressive, turnover-heavy protection designed to make opponents uncomfortable.

This group can be impressively deep. Attributable to some harm hassle within the early a part of the season, The Colonels presently have 11 gamers averaging 15 or extra minutes per recreation, so nobody on their roster shall be dragging their ft. The Zags can anticipate wave after wave of recent legs.

Fortunately, the Zags have Ryan Nembhard. By my estimation, the most effective level guard in faculty basketball. And for the majority of his 4-year faculty profession, he’s logged 35+ minutes per recreation with out displaying fatigue. Until the Nicholls State backcourt can discover the legs to maintain up defensively, Ryan’s going to carve them up within the decide and roll for many of regulation.

Offensive Recreation Plan

Nicholls State’s offense is designed to be as quick and fluid as their protection (the consistency with which they obtain that has been spotty to this point, nevertheless). Missing dimension or a real star participant, they as an alternative depend on fast ball motion, opportunistic scoring, and a group of athletic (albeit undersized) bigs. They’re expert in crashing the boards and discovering probabilities to attain in transition, one thing the Zags sorely want apply in defending, as evidenced in opposition to Kentucky and UConn.

Whereas not a superbly oiled machine, the Colonels are impressively adaptable and harmful. In simply 11 video games, 5 completely different gamers have led the group in scoring, and one other 5 have led in rebounding. They’re using a 5-game successful streak and thrive on enjoying the new hand, maintaining defenses unsettled and discovering new methods to attain. For the Zags, that is the type of take a look at they want proper now—a scrappy opponent that forces them to maintain up the tempo on offense whereas staying sharp and disciplined on protection.

Key Gamers to Watch

Nicholls State is led by guard Byron Eire, who’s averaging 13 factors and 4 rebounds per recreation. He’s their most constant scorer, a robust backcourt defender, and logs 30+ minutes per recreation. Eire may have the ball in his palms so much, and he has a nostril for the bucket on dribble-drives, so it’ll be as much as Battle, Nembhard, and Hickman to neutralize him and hold him out of the lane. Fortuitously for the Zags, Eire isn’t a lot of a deep risk—he’s taking pictures simply 19% from past the arc this season. Let him shoot; simply hold the ball out of the paint.

Most of Nicholls State’s perimeter scoring comes from guard Trae English, who’s hitting 38% of his pictures from deep however contributes solely 7.5 factors per recreation. He’s streaky, and if Gonzaga can deny him beauty, the Colonels’ offense will really feel the squeeze.

A brilliant spot for the Zags amidst all of the chaos of the previous few weeks has been Dusty Stromer, significantly defensively. Few has mentioned that he considers Dusty a starter even if he comes off the bench, and he’s averaging 24 minutes per recreation to show it. Though he has but to maximise his scoring potential, he’s nonetheless taking pictures 47% whereas enjoying stellar perimeter protection, funneling his man into the suitable spots and stopping clear appears on the rim. Stromer is able to maintaining the Colonels’ shooters off the 3-pt line and snagging key rebounds alongside the way in which whereas Eire is neutralized within the backcourt.

Within the frontcourt, Nicholls State is undersized, with nobody taller than 6’8”. This may very well be an ideal bounce-back alternative for Graham Ike, particularly after his quiet 3-point efficiency in opposition to UConn. Nevertheless, the Colonels’ Mekhi Collins has been punching above his weight. He’s a freak athlete presently averaging almost 7 rebounds per recreation in simply 20 minutes of motion. Offensively, he lives above the rim, and the Zags must deal with boxing out, crashing the boards, and igniting their transition recreation to capitalize on this dimension mismatch. Michael Ajayi is able to averaging double-digit rebounds per recreation and might want to proceed on his upward trajectory to spark these transition alternatives from the defensive facet.

Key to the Recreation

The largest query for Gonzaga proper now could be easy: how do you get the utmost variety of gamers to play properly on the identical evening? Tough video games occur, certain—particularly early within the season. However as we noticed in opposition to UConn and Kentucky, the Zags can’t afford 3-5 gamers having off nights concurrently, even when a handful of others are stepping up. Inconsistency is what’s been killing the Zags to this point this yr. Though Khalif Battle has been settling into his position and Ryan Nembhard has been completely cooking defenders on the pick-and-roll, the Zags want reliablet offense from the frontcourt and higher rim safety to beat these excessive profile opponents like Kentucky and UConn.

Mark Few’s system thrives on steadiness. It calls for a cohesive group assault on each ends of the ground. Till the Zags strike that steadiness and get constant contributions from the utmost variety of gamers within the lineup, they’ll proceed to battle.

An early-season matchup in opposition to Nicholls State is the right alternative to begin constructing that consistency. With a giant matchup in opposition to UCLA looming, it’s time for Gonzaga to get proper and get transferring in the identical route as soon as once more.