Derrick Henry’s transfer from the Tennessee Titans to the Baltimore Ravens in 2024 virtually appeared too good to be true.
Henry, who was already a four-time Professional Bowler and two-time speeding chief, went from the second-best working staff within the NFL to the perfect one which simply so occurred to even have a two-time MVP dual-threat quarterback in Lamar Jackson.
The issues round Henry’s means to stay productive in Baltimore have been minimal, however related: He turned 30 earlier this yr and amassed greater than 2,000 speeding makes an attempt in 119 video games. That’s sometimes a recipe for a dip in manufacturing on the working again place.
And after a Week 1 exhibiting through which he mustered simply 46 speeding yards on 13 carries for a pedestrian 3.5 yards per carry – a bar Henry’s crossed in 77 video games earlier than he signed with the Ravens – questions arose relating to Henry’s long-term viability.
Effectively, any Henry doubters didn’t have to attend lengthy to be confirmed incorrect. He’s averaged 6.3 yards per carry since Week 1 and have become the primary working again to hurry for greater than 1,000 yards in 9 video games (the earlier file was 10 video games, set by New Orleans Saints working again Ricky Williams in 2000).
Heading into Week 11, Henry leads the NFL in speeding makes an attempt (184), speeding yards (1,120) and speeding touchdowns (12). And he’s doing it on the age of 30.
To place that into historic context, Henry is one in all solely 26 working backs since 1970 to hurry for greater than 1,000 yards over the age of 30 (to date). Nevertheless, solely 13 of these working backs did it greater than as soon as and simply 4 (John Riggins, Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore and Walter Payton), did it 3 times or extra.
What this implies is Henry is on the precipice of two totally different profession paths: He’s both one other high quality working again who may very well be on the decline due to his age (after this yr, at the least), or can be part of a small pantheon of working again ironmen. For what it’s price, 5 of the 12 working backs with at the least two 1,000-yard seasons after the age of 30 are within the Corridor of Fame and two extra can be eligible by 2027.
If the 2024 season is any indication of Henry’s future, he’s trending towards that latter class.
Henry doesn’t simply lead the NFL in an important working again classes – he’s additionally among the many league leaders in key effectivity metrics. Henry is the one participant to rank ninth or higher (min. 60 carries) in yards per carry (6.1), yards earlier than contact (4.1), yards after contact (2.2) and yards per keep it up performs with a run disruption (4.0).
He additionally ranks second (1.8) in EVE (Effectivity Versus Anticipated) behind Detroit Lions star Jahymr Gibbs (1.9), however leads the NFL in complete EVE with 338.0 – properly forward of Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (276.6) and Gibbs (226.5). EVE measures common yards or amassed yards (for complete EVE) gained in comparison with the league-wide anticipated quantity in a given state of affairs.
EVE for working backs under, not solely is it obvious how huge of a workload Henry has taken on (dimension of the dot) but additionally the elite percentile through which he ranks (the extra proper, the higher). By the way in which, the dot simply to the left of Henry is Lamar Jackson.
This isn’t stunning info given Henry’s profession and the offense he joined. The Ravens’ run-blocking and the presence of Jackson within the backfield have made Henry’s life a little bit bit simpler, as Henry’s seen a foul field (yet one more defender than blocker) on fewer than half of his speeding makes an attempt. That is principally because of the risk of Jackson’s means to throw or run with the ball, however Baltimore additionally ranks fifth in run success fee, giving Henry ample room to bulldoze defenders.
Henry’s 2024 success, although, derives from how he and the Ravens make the most of his talent set within the run sport. And it’s why he’s greatest suited to stay a battering ram within the backfield this season and past so long as he performs for the Ravens.
Henry is handiest on performs that capitalize on his distinctive mix of dimension and velocity. He’s 6-foot-2 and 247 kilos, however has nonetheless reached speeds of 20 mph or extra 28 instances in his profession, together with two in 2024. This season, Henry put up elite effectivity numbers on duo, iso (with fullback Patrick Ricard in entrance of him), horn, exterior zone, exterior lead and sweep working performs. These accounted for practically 56% of Henry’s carries.
What do all these have in frequent? They’re all downhill, bodily working performs that exploit Henry’s talent set to wreak havoc on defenses. In these ideas, Henry ranks above common in yards per carry, yards earlier than and after contact and yards per carry with a run disruption.
He’s additionally been nice on energy working performs particularly in opposition to run disruptions.
The important thing to Henry, and why he’s so good on these downhill runs, is his pre-yards and yards earlier than contact. The differentiating issue right here is pre-yards don’t require contact to be made with the defender, it’s simply the quantity of yards a participant accrued earlier than seeing the primary defender.
Henry leads the NFL in common pre-yards with 3.19 – 0.30 yards greater than the subsequent closest, James Cook dinner of the Buffalo Payments. His 444 complete pre-yards are additionally 82 greater than Barkley, who ranks second. Much more, Henry ranks second in yards per run after that interplay with 4.27 – half a yard lower than Tank Bigsby of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who’s had virtually half of Henry’s makes an attempt.
The primary concern for Henry continues to be if his manufacturing is sustainable by itself or if it’s merely a product of his surroundings in Baltimore.
Not solely does Henry’s total unhealthy field share rank low (seventeenth amongst 27 working backs with at the least 100 carries), however he additionally ranks final in unhealthy field share among the many seven working backs who’ve carried the ball at the least 50 instances in opposition to packing containers with eight or extra defenders. So whereas Henry’s 72 carries in opposition to eight-plus males within the field leads the NFL and his 5.53 yards per keep it up these makes an attempt ranks second, he not often faces these eventualities with out ample safety.
However this doesn’t imply Henry can’t produce when he faces unideal conditions, it simply means the Ravens know the best way to put him in the perfect positions. And when he isn’t in these conditions, Henry nonetheless excels. Listed below are Henry’s numbers if you look completely at performs through which he’s had fewer blockers than defenders within the field.
In comparison with the remainder of the NFL, these are nonetheless top-10 numbers. Crucial parts are the yards per carry in opposition to run disruptions, although. Henry’s YPD/RD ranks first when he has fewer than two blocks, which means when he is aware of he’s dealing with defenders trying to cease the run, he’s been efficient in stopping them as an alternative, relative to the remainder of the NFL.
Let’s look additional and take among the similar run designs through which Henry excelled and solely take a look at performs through which he confronted one fewer blocker than defender within the field.
Naturally, there are fewer carries, however Henry’s yardage numbers stay excessive amongst his NFL friends. As a result of Henry is so good at downhill working, he can excel even when confronted with antagonistic conditions.
The wedding of Henry and the Ravens fashioned maybe essentially the most excellent union between an older working again and a top-tier offense. Baltimore is constructed to mix Henry’s speeding model with Jackson’s dual-threat means, even with out star move catchers. And it’s maybe why Henry is the primary Ravens working again to interrupt 1,000 yards since Mark Ingram in 2019 – and in 5 fewer video games.
Jackson continues to be speeding at a excessive stage, too, so it’s not as if Henry is taking something away from Baltimore’s cellular quarterback. If something, the presence of each gamers is making the opposite much more efficient out of the backfield.
Henry, although, is poised to blossom into his second act. He can run from a wide range of variations whereas bludgeoning and racing previous defenders at each stage. The Ravens have unlocked one other gear for Henry, one which makes him the perfect working again within the league regardless of his age.
And if this trajectory continues, Henry needs to be on his option to one other league-leading season with no sign of ending.
Analysis help supplied by Jake Coyne of Stats Carry out. You’ll want to take a look at our MLB and NBA protection, in addition to all our school soccer and NFL picks. Comply with us on X, Threads, Fb and Instagram for extra!
