This 12 months’s Stanley Cup Closing between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers, with Recreation 1 on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+), comes with many desirable unknowns. For example, it is unknown whether or not the battle of greatest participant versus greatest workforce will likely be gained by Connor McDavid or the Panthers, respectively, and we do not know whom the large journey distances of the collection — the groups are positioned a Finals-record 2,541 miles aside — will favor.
However by way of the 2 groups’ colliding enjoying types and statistical résumés, some guesses will be made about how the Oilers-Panthers matchup would possibly go by taking a look at comparable Stanley Cup Finals from the previous.
Alongside these strains, we’re taking inspiration from an train we ran earlier than the playoffs, through which we appeared for the previous champions most similar to this 12 months’s prime contenders based mostly on a wide range of statistical indicators: Florida’s doppelgänger? The 2007 Anaheim Geese. And Edmonton’s? The 2001 Colorado Avalanche.
This time round, we’re including an additional twist: Moderately than trying on the most comparable matches for only one workforce at a time, we looked for probably the most comparable pair of Finals combatants to Edmonton and Florida, utilizing their playoff stats up to now.
Among the many indicators we checked out have been postseason successful proportion, goals-per-game differential, objectives scored/allowed relative to league common, and goaltending efficiency, along with extra esoteric classes resembling a workforce’s dependence on its energy play, the manufacturing of its prime star, the share of its offense coming from the blue line and what number of penalties it takes. Changing every stat to its percentile rank relative to all Closing groups, and weighting the extra vital classes extra, we discovered the mixtures of Closing groups since 1980 (which was the primary season of the NHL’s 16-team playoff bracket) that have been most much like Florida and Edmonton.
Amazingly, once we take a look at the ten most comparable Closing matchups, the Oilers and Panthers are cut up evenly, with 5 comparable collection gained by every present workforce’s equal from the previous. So for each squads on this 12 months’s Closing, let’s break down the 5 most comparable collection that would portend a victory for both sides in 2024.
