Admit it. You bought your favourite NFL workforce’s full 2024 regular-season schedule Wednesday evening, went by it game-by-game and got here to the one conclusion any good fan can attain at a time like this.
“We’re going 17-0!”
Spoiler alert: No, you are not. The attractive factor concerning the NFL is that stuff occurs year-round to which we are able to overreact. The schedule launch isn’t any exception. Heck, it is truly probably the greatest examples.
Possibly you checked out your workforce’s schedule and thought, “I can not discover the primary loss!” Possibly you regarded and thought, “I can not consider how badly the league cheated us!” Possibly you do not just like the journey schedule, or the remaining days relative to your workforce’s division rivals. Or possibly you are attempting to determine an excuse that can allow you to ignore the household on Christmas Day as a result of your workforce ended up with a sport on Dec. 25. However no matter your response was to the schedule launch, there is a first rate likelihood it was an overreaction.
That is what makes it enjoyable, in fact. And it is also what offers us an opportunity to fireside up one other offseason overreactions column, the place we decide a number of the greatest potential takeaways from groups’ 17-game slates.
Bounce to potential overreactions:Jets | Eagles | Falcons | Bengals | Bears
The Jets shall be in first place going into their Week 12 bye
The Jets might very nicely begin 0-1, as they open with a street Monday evening sport in opposition to the defending NFC champion 49ers. However after that, solely three of their subsequent 10 video games come in opposition to groups that made the playoffs final season: vs. Payments in Week 6, at Steelers in Week 7 and vs. Texans in Week 9.
Issues begin to look fairly tough when the Jets come out of their bye and begin December, although. Each of their video games in opposition to the Dolphins are post-bye, and their street sport in Buffalo is on Dec. 29 (brrr!). However a wholesome Aaron Rodgers ought to give them an opportunity to pile up wins within the first two-thirds of the season.
1:53
Greeny exasperated after studying Jets open season on ‘Monday Evening Soccer’
Mike Greenberg would not disguise his emotions about how the Jets’ season is scheduled to begin nearly the identical means as final season’s disastrous opener.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
“A wholesome Aaron Rodgers” at this level continues to be an Aaron Rodgers who turns 41 years outdated on Dec. 2. The checklist of quarterbacks who’ve carried out at a championship-caliber stage at this age or older is mainly Tom Brady. There’s loads using on a quarterback who hasn’t been on the sphere a lot since he confirmed up in Florham Park, and on a training employees that did not deal with adversity very nicely final season.
The Dolphins have been a hot-starting workforce the previous couple of years, and the Payments are nonetheless a pressure within the division. Of the three groups we predict have an opportunity to win the AFC East — sorry, New England — the Jets are by far the least confirmed. The schedule might arrange nicely for them after they get dwelling from San Francisco, however we nonetheless do not know for a indisputable fact that they are a workforce able to profiting from it.
Saquon Barkley will lead the Eagles to the playoffs by working throughout his outdated workforce in Week 18
The previous Giants working again signed an enormous free agent take care of division rival Philadelphia this offseason. This has led to fairly a variety of reactions, together with Barkley getting booed at a Sixers-Knicks playoff sport and tweeting that he cannot consider followers aren’t over it but. He is more likely to get an earful when the Eagles play the Giants at MetLife Stadium in Week 7, but when the Week 18 matchup at dwelling means something to the Eagles’ (or I assume the Giants’) playoff probabilities, he’ll have the chance to point out his outdated workforce simply who it let stroll out the door.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Eagles might nicely win the NFC East. Heck, they could nicely have it wrapped up by the point they face the Giants in Week 18. I am simply not imagining Barkley because the difference-maker so many appear to be assuming he shall be this season.
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Solely twice in his six-year profession has Barkley made it by a full season with out lacking at the least one sport as a result of harm. And even when 2024 is the third such season for him, I consider the Eagles’ success goes to have much more to do with whether or not the passing sport rebounds behind quarterback Jalen Hurts and his receivers. The Eagles even have some inquiries to reply alongside the offensive line, together with methods to substitute longtime heart Jason Kelce, who retired this offseason.
Assuming Barkley may be the important thing participant who elevates a workforce from good to nice ignores the truth that he has not been that over six years within the NFL. Once more, the Eagles could be favored to win the division, however I discover it laborious to consider Kellen Moore’s offense goes to make a working again its point of interest.
The Falcons might win the NFC
Atlanta is tied with division mate New Orleans for the simplest schedule within the league, if we’re basing issues on opponents’ 2023 information (.453). The Falcons answered their greatest roster query — twice! — this offseason by signing Kirk Cousins to an enormous free agent deal after which utilizing the No. 8 choose within the draft on Michael Penix Jr. Solely 4 groups within the league — the Steelers, Colts, Bengals and Commanders — need to journey fewer miles than the Falcons do in 2024. And nobody of their division has received greater than 9 video games in both of the previous two seasons.
So issues are arrange nicely for the Falcons in Raheem Morris’ first yr as their coach, and if they will benefit from all these components, they may set themselves up with a fantastic seed within the NFC playoffs.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
The Falcons had the simplest energy of schedule final season, too, and so they went 7-10. The primary purpose for that is that the “energy of schedule” metric we’re referring to right here is bogus. Basing such an evaluation on final yr’s information ignores the repeatedly indisputable fact that the identical groups aren’t good each season. We do not truly know who has the hardest energy of schedule by way of high quality of opponent, as a result of we do not know who’s going to get damage and who’s going to battle and who’s going to interrupt out.
2:37
Falcons launch 2024 schedule ‘NFL Avenue’ fashion
The Falcons take to the animated streets of Atlanta to unveil their schedule for the upcoming NFL season.
And whereas it might be straightforward for a Falcons fan to be optimistic primarily based on the workforce’s in depth offseason efforts to enhance on the quarterback place, the state of affairs the workforce has created for itself by signing Cousins and drafting Penix that prime has an opportunity to be difficult — and particularly tough for a first-year teaching employees to navigate. The Buccaneers received the division final season and introduced again just about their entire workforce, so I am not making another person the favourite till I see some on-field proof.
A wholesome Joe Burrow and the Bengals will return to the highest of the AFC North
Each workforce within the AFC North had a successful document final season. Even with Burrow struggling a season-ending wrist harm, the Bengals nonetheless managed to complete 9-8. That was ok for fourth place within the division, and the good thing about that’s the Bengals get to play a fourth-place schedule. Whereas the Ravens, who received the division, need to play the groups that received the opposite three AFC divisions (Payments, Texans and Chiefs), the Bengals play the groups that completed final in these divisions (Patriots, Titans and Chargers). In addition they have video games in opposition to two of the groups that completed final in NFC divisions — Washington and Carolina.
Elsewhere within the AFC North, the Browns, Ravens and Steelers have the first-, second- and third-hardest schedules primarily based on opponents’ 2023 information. Cincinnati, in the meantime, has the Sixteenth-hardest. (Although, once more, take that with a grain of salt.)
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Truthfully, it is nonetheless too early to know the way nicely Burrow will get well from his harm. This is not an ACL or an Achilles, the place the restoration course of and timeline are nicely established and comparatively widespread. Burrow’s harm is one which straight impacts the way in which he throws the ball, and if that is off, all bets are additionally off.
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All of that stated, Burrow shouldn’t be a participant to be underestimated, and he and the Bengals consider he’ll make a full restoration. If he does, Cincinnati is about up nicely. Notoriously gradual starters, the early a part of the Bengals’ schedule is definitely fairly favorable (apart from that Kansas Metropolis sport in Week 2). However the Chiefs are certainly one of solely two groups the Bengals will face within the first six weeks that completed with a successful document final season. By the point Burrow and the Bengals typically get going, they will be primed for a Week 10 street matchup in opposition to the Ravens — a workforce that, for me, has a good variety of query marks because of the losses on the defensive teaching employees and the offensive line.
And popping out of their Week 12 bye, the Bengals solely have two powerful trying street video games remaining: Week 14 in Dallas and Week 17 in Pittsburgh.
Caleb Williams will go 4-0 in opposition to his fellow rookie quarterbacks and lead the Bears to the playoffs
Assuming all of them win their beginning jobs earlier than lengthy, Williams traces as much as play 4 video games in opposition to groups that drafted quarterbacks within the first spherical — one every in opposition to the Commanders (Jayden Daniels) and the Patriots (Drake Maye) and two in opposition to the division rival Vikings (J.J. McCarthy).
Of these quarterbacks, you may make a robust argument that Williams was drafted into the most effective state of affairs, with a receiving corps that features DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet and fellow rookie Rome Odunze. The Bears additionally signed working again D’Andre Swift and return a protection that completed final season enjoying like probably the greatest within the league. Ten of their 17 video games — and eight of their 11 nondivision video games — come in opposition to groups that missed the playoffs final season.
What to know from the 2024 NFL draft
• See all 257 picks | Decide evaluation• Kiper’s draft grades | Finest, worst picks• Rating finest 100 picks | Overreactions• Massive takeaways | Yates’ favourite picks• Each commerce | Learn extra on the draft
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
If Williams is as able to be an NFL star as many consider, there is not any purpose to suppose the Bears will not construct on their late-2023 season success and make a run at a playoff spot in 2024. They’ve put sources into the offensive line over the previous few years, they’re loaded with depth and so they have actual expertise — most of it fairly confirmed — on the offensive ability positions.
The oft-maligned teaching employees proved fairly a bit over the second half of final season, in case you were not paying consideration, and added offensive coordinator Shane Waldron from the Seahawks to spice up issues on that aspect of the ball. Of the groups listed, I like Chicago higher than New England, Washington and Minnesota to contend.