The 2024 MLB All-Star Residence Run Derby is nearly right here!
Spots for essentially the most anticipated baseball occasion of the summer time are filling up quick, and a number of the largest names in MLB will probably be duking it out at Globe Life Area in Arlington, Texas, on July 15 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN).
This yr’s Derby will characteristic some vital adjustments, most notably that the primary spherical will not be a head-to-head bracket — the highest 4 first-round scores will advance to the semifinal bracket — and that hitters will see a most of 40 pitches in every timed spherical, putting extra of an emphasis on effectivity versus velocity.
We break down every participant’s probabilities as the sphere is introduced, beginning with the primary star to decide to this yr’s competitors.
2024 residence runs: 27 | Longest: 430 toes
Editor’s Picks
2 Associated
Why he may win: Have you ever seen what Henderson is doing this season? The sophomore shortstop is already on the verge of surpassing his 2023 residence run whole (28) in simply over half a season. The important thing to taking his energy to a brand new stage has been bettering his residence run-to-fly ball ratio from 19.3% final season to an MLB-leading 32.1% this season. Merely put, good issues occur when Henderson hits the ball within the air — and he’ll get loads of pitches to drive on Derby evening.
Why he may not: Henderson’s Baseball Savant web page is a sea of pink this season (which means he is above common in most classes) and he is at or close to the highest of each energy leaderboard, however there may be one quantity that might work towards him within the Residence Run Derby: the number one. As in, this will probably be his first time taking part within the occasion. We all know Henderson’s energy performs in video games, however some gamers are constructed for the trials of the Derby, and others should not, and it is inconceivable to know which class even the perfect sluggers slot in till they’re swinging underneath the brilliant lights.
Residence runs: 11 | Longest: 427 toes
Why he may win: The NL’s beginning All-Star third baseman, Bohm is within the midst of a breakout season that has include leaps in his fly ball (33.8% to 36.8%), pull (30.2% to 34.7%) and exhausting contact (31.5% to 37.8%) charges — all issues that bode effectively for his probabilities in an occasion the place getting right into a rhythm of pulling the ball over the fence is a key to success.
Why he may not: That breakout hasn’t translated into an increase in residence runs as he has simply 11 lengthy balls this season and his .192 ISO (a stat that measures a participant’s total energy output) is tied for forty second within the majors.
2024 residence runs: 18 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he may win: Alonso’s Residence Run Derby historical past speaks for itself: He received the occasion in 2019 and 2021, becoming a member of Ken Griffey Jr. and Yoenis Cespedes as back-to-back Derby champions. Positive, he bought knocked out within the first spherical of final summer time’s occasion, however it’s exhausting to choose towards Alonso in any Residence Run Derby area.
Why he may not: Alonso is within the midst of one thing of a down season, with a sub.-800 OPS and solely 18 residence runs in 87 video games after belting 40-plus every of the previous two years. One of many largest culprits has been an increase in floor ball charge, which is one thing he cannot afford to see carry into the Residence Run Derby if he desires so as to add a 3rd title to his résumé in Arlington.
2024 residence runs: 15 | Longest: 468
2024 MLB Midseason Awards
From MVP to greatest rookie to largest disappointment, we hand out our midseason MLB awards.
Bradford Doolittle »
Why he may win: You may not consider Witt as a pure energy hitter, however he really has some historical past in All-Star week residence run derbies: He received the highschool model at Nationals Park in 2018, so perhaps he can channel that formulation once more in Arlington. Up to now this season, Witt has been among the many greatest within the sport at squaring up the baseball, rating within the 94th percentile in barrel proportion and 91st in hard-hit proportion with a mean exit velo of 92.7 mph.
Why he may not: As a result of that is the Residence Run Derby and never a abilities competitors. If MLB held an occasion that mixed the whole lot a participant can do on the sphere, Witt can be one of many favorites to win it (together with Cincinnati’s Elly De La Cruz). Nonetheless, Witt’s 15 residence runs rank simply twenty ninth within the majors, and he’s going to need to muscle plenty of balls out of the ballpark to hold with the larger-framed sluggers he’ll be up towards on Derby evening.
2024 residence runs: 23 | Longest: 446 toes
Why he may win: Ozuna has been certainly one of few offensive brilliant spots on a Braves crew struggling a significant energy outage from final yr’s historic efficiency. His 23 residence runs are second within the Nationwide League — behind solely Shohei Ohtani — and his barrel proportion and hard-hit proportion have been elite this season to go together with a career-best 93.1 mph common exit velocity at age 33.
Why he may not: Regardless of his massive numbers, there may be nonetheless a good quantity of swing and miss in his recreation — his swinging strike proportion is Fifteenth-highest in MLB this yr and his 31.9% whiff charge is in simply the tenth percentile of hitters. Ozuna has the facility to hold with anybody within the area, however he is bought to be locked in to get to it.
