The San Francisco 49ers may need misplaced Tremendous Bowl LVIII to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, however they enter 2024 as the very best group in soccer and favorites to win Tremendous Bowl LIX, in accordance with ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI). The 49ers’ edge in high quality over the Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs is slender, however as a result of San Francisco performs within the weaker NFC, its championship probabilities (16%) are notably larger than some other membership’s.
The Soccer Energy Index is our rankings and projection mannequin for NFL groups. Within the preseason, the mannequin’s general predictive rankings are based mostly totally on win totals from ESPN BET at the side of every group’s schedule — together with elements such because the energy distinction between a group’s beginning and backup quarterback and a revamped particular groups score based mostly totally on new predictive kicker rankings. We use these group rankings to simulate the season 1000’s of instances, creating our projections.
Throughout the season, rankings evolve based mostly on how groups carry out on offense, protection and particular groups — together with quarterback efficiency and modifications. Along with up to date rankings, recreation predictions are additionally affected by home-field benefit and relaxation differentials.
Let’s dive into the 2024 season.
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49ers are the favorites
Though San Francisco fell brief in additional time on the Tremendous Bowl, there is not any mistaking its elite play all through the 2023 season. Postseason included, the 49ers had been clearly the very best offense when it comes to EPA per play at 0.15, solidly forward of the Buffalo Payments (0.12) and the Dallas Cowboys (0.11). Pairing that with a top-10 protection made the 49ers the very best group in soccer within the FPI’s thoughts, even when they did not win.
First have a look at FPI rankings for the 2024 NFL season. pic.twitter.com/6eQF5hshMS
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) Could 29, 2024
There’s little purpose to imagine that can change in 2024. We are able to debate the true division of credit score amongst quarterback Brock Purdy, coach Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers’ plethora of proficient talent place gamers, however it all provides as much as a championship contender so long as working again Christian McCaffrey, broad receivers Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, and tight finish George Kittle stay wholesome and productive. The defensive leaders — finish Nick Bosa, deal with Javon Hargrave, linebacker Fred Warner and cornerback Charvarius Ward — additionally return.
That each one makes the 49ers the FPI’s No. 1 group. And when coupled with the NFC nonetheless being weaker on common (by about 0.8 factors per recreation in FPI score) than the AFC, it leaves an open path for the 49ers to return to the Tremendous Bowl. San Francisco has a 25% likelihood to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl and a 16% likelihood to win it — each greatest within the league. The favourite having a 16% likelihood to win the Tremendous Bowl is roughly on par with earlier variations of the FPI, as it is the fifth-highest share amongst preseason favorites over the previous 10 years.
RankTeamChance149ers16percent2Chiefs12percent3Lions10percent4Cowboys9percent5Ravens8percent6Eagles8percent7Bills6percent8Bengals5percent9Packers5percent10Texans4percent11Dolphins3percent12Falcons3percentSee the complete listing right here.
Might we be headed for a Tremendous Bowl rematch?
Any singular Tremendous Bowl matchup is unlikely to happen. However this yr, the almost definitely Tremendous Bowl matchup is a rematch of final season. One other Chiefs-49ers contest has a 6% likelihood of occurring, per the FPI. That quantity is fueled by the energy of the 49ers’ projections, plus the Chiefs being the highest group within the AFC.
Most certainly Tremendous Bowl LIX matchups
MatchupLikelihood1Chiefs vs. 49ers6percent2Ravens vs. 49ers4percent3Chiefs vs. Lions4percent4Chiefs vs. Eagles4percent5Chiefs vs. Cowboys4percent6Bills vs. 49ers3percent7Ravens vs. Lions3percent8Bengals vs. 49ers3percent9Chiefs vs. Packers2percent10Ravens vs. Cowboys2%
Though Baltimore is true behind Kansas Metropolis in general FPI score, its probabilities to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl lag behind the Chiefs’ (24% to 17%) as a result of the Ravens play in a a lot more durable division. The Ravens have solely a 46% likelihood to win the AFC North (in contrast with a 74% likelihood for the Chiefs within the West), and their likelihood to land the No. 1 seed is eighteen% to the Chiefs’ 24%. That mentioned, Ravens-49ers is the second-most possible Tremendous Bowl matchup at 4%.
The 4 almost definitely AFC Championship Video games all concerned the Chiefs towards different contenders — the Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Payments and Houston Texans — with the Miami Dolphins the one different group to crack a top-10 AFC Championship Sport conflict. The 49ers, Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys are within the majority of the almost definitely NFC Championship Sport matchups, though the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons labored their method into the highest 10.
Most certainly convention title recreation matchups
AFCNFCChiefs vs. Ravens9percent49ers vs. Lions9percentChiefs vs. Bengals6percent49ers vs. Eagles8percentChiefs vs. Bills6percent49ers vs. Cowboys8percentChiefs vs. Texans5percentLions vs. Eagles6percentRavens vs. Bills5percentLions vs. Cowboys6percentChiefs vs. Dolphins4percent49ers vs. Packers5percentRavens vs. Texans4percent49ers vs. Falcons4percentBengals vs. Bills3percentCowboys vs. Packers3percentRavens vs. Dolphins3percentEagles vs. Packers3percentRavens vs. Bengals3percentEagles vs. Cowboys3%
Who’ll take the AFC East?
It is nonetheless Buffalo’s division to lose. Though the Payments have main questions at broad receiver, the New York Jets have a wholesome Aaron Rodgers and a strengthened roster, and the Dolphins stay a menace. The FPI nonetheless sees the incumbent Payments because the favorites, with a 44% likelihood to win the robust division. Miami is subsequent at 31%, and the Jets are third at 25%.
That breakdown is attention-grabbing given the hype and cautious optimism across the Jets — and since New York has the best schedule of the three groups whereas Buffalo has the toughest. Basically, the FPI believes the Payments may have a high-end offense even with out receiver Stefon Diggs, with Josh Allen taking part in behind a stable offensive line.
The one group with no shot? The New England Patriots. It is no shock given the group’s present standing. The FPI provides New England lower than a 1% likelihood to win the division and solely a 2% likelihood to succeed in the playoffs. The Patriots have the toughest energy of schedule within the NFL this yr, however in the event you ask me these projections nonetheless really feel somewhat overconfident forecasting New England’s failure. Who’s to say rookie quarterback and No. 3 decide Drake Maye cannot be good instantly?
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Can Kirk Cousins lead the Falcons to a division title?
In accordance with the FPI, it is greater than possible. With Cousins strolling into the woebegone NFC South, Atlanta is ready as much as take the division — regardless of the Falcons having burned the No. 8 decide on one other quarterback. Despite the fact that the FPI is not overly keen on Atlanta — contemplating it the Fifteenth-best group within the NFL — the Falcons are nonetheless clearly the highest group within the division, with the Bucs (twenty second), Saints (twenty sixth) and Panthers (thirty second) lagging.
Atlanta is projected to win 9.6 video games, the best of any group exterior FPI’s prime 10, as a result of it has the best schedule within the league by a wholesome margin.
Patriots and Panthers almost definitely groups on the clock
New England’s league-topping energy of schedule mixed with the FPI’s skepticism concerning its roster has the mannequin believing the Patriots are the almost definitely group to select first within the 2025 NFL draft, with a 22% likelihood. The Panthers price decrease than the Patriots within the FPI, however their likelihood at choosing No. 1 is barely worse (21%).
If Carolina finally ends up incomes the No. 1 decide once more (it could get to make use of it this time), it should possible be on the lookout for Bryce Younger’s successor — though it stays to be seen whether or not there is a 2025 quarterback worthy of going first.
The Denver Broncos, Tennessee Titans and New York Giants spherical out the highest 5 for probabilities of touchdown the highest decide.
Projected 2025 NFL draft order
RankTeamChance at No. 1 PickChance at prime 51Patriots22percent66percent2Panthers21percent63percent3Broncos12percent51percent4Titans7percent37percent5Commanders6percent32percent6Giants6percent32percent7Vikings5percent28percent8Raiders3percent25percent9Cardinals4percent23percent10Saints3percent19%
Will Chargers take a leap below Jim Harbaugh?
The FPI isn’t satisfied! The mannequin provides L.A. a barely unfavorable score and ranks the Chargers 18th general. A part of that is because of Los Angeles dropping receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this offseason, plus a protection that ranked twenty ninth in EPA per play final season. Nonetheless, Jim Harbaugh plus Justin Herbert equaling (simply) under common was stunning to see.
There may be upside, although. The Chargers have a forty five% likelihood to succeed in the playoffs and a 19% shot at wresting the AFC West title from the Chiefs. However the odds that Harbaugh will flip this group round in a single season are low in accordance with the mannequin, with 3% and 1% probabilities to succeed in and win the Tremendous Bowl, respectively.
Can Eagles, Jaguars overcome 2023 collapses?
The FPI is a believer within the Eagles. Regardless of the group falling aside and dropping six of its last seven video games final season — together with a 32-9 blowout loss to Tampa Bay within the wild-card spherical — the mannequin is backing Philadelphia because the fourth-best group within the NFC behind San Francisco, Detroit and Dallas and makes it a slender favourite to win the NFC East (49%). The Eagles nonetheless have the inspiration of a contender, with good or nice gamers at important positions comparable to quarterback, deal with, broad receiver and alongside the line of defense. They’ve additionally added new coordinators.
As for the Jacksonville Jaguars? The FPI is far more skeptical. Jacksonville ranks sixteenth and has only a 22% likelihood to win its division as a result of its lukewarm energy score and the ascendance of the Texans (and maybe the Indianapolis Colts) at a time when the Jaguars seem stagnant.