The 2023 NFL season has produced, in some ways, the identical offseason transition because the 2022 marketing campaign.
The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are celebrating one other Tremendous Bowl championship, the Chicago Bears as soon as once more personal the draft’s No. 1 total choose and the league’s offseason agenda will characteristic some acquainted points: officiating, the kickoff, the hip-drop sort out and the potential for vital motion from veteran quarterbacks.
The Bears traded the highest choose final 12 months and now should determine whether or not to remain put and draft a quarterback — presumably USC’s Caleb Williams — or commerce out once more and recommit to incumbent Justin Fields. In the meantime, very similar to Aaron Rodgers in 2022, the Minnesota Vikings’ Kirk Cousins holds the keys to a domino impact of quarterback choices.
The league’s competitors committee is already at work on the lookout for options that eluded their 2022 efforts. Can they discover a technique to ban the hip-drop sort out? Is there a greater technique to keep away from concussions on kickoffs than merely restrict the chance for returns? And are there any substantive methods to enhance the league’s officiating within the brief and lengthy phrases?
There is not a lot time for a post-Tremendous Bowl breath. The NFL mix begins in two weeks. Let’s take a better look, beginning with a assessment of the NFL’s key dates over the subsequent six months.
Feb. 20: First day to designate franchise and transition tags
Feb. 27-March 4: Scouting mix in Indianapolis
March 5 (4 p.m. ET): Franchise/transition tag deadline
March 11-13: Negotiating interval for pending unrestricted free brokers
March 14 (4 p.m. ET): Free agent offers will be signed, trades will be formally consummated, June 1 cuts will be designated and the deadline for qualifying presents to restricted free brokers.
March 24-27: Annual league assembly in Orlando, Florida
April 1: Groups with new head coaches can start offseason conditioning packages
April 15: Remaining groups can start offseason conditioning packages
April 19: Deadline for restricted free brokers to signal supply sheets
April 25-27: NFL draft in Detroit
Could 2: Deadline for groups to choose up fifth-year choices for 2021 draft class
Could 3-6 or Could 10-13: Groups can stage rookie minicamps
Could/June: Groups can stage OTAs and obligatory minicamp
Late July: Coaching camps open
Consider officiating management and expertise
One of many first questions commissioner Roger Goodell fielded at his annual Tremendous Bowl information convention was on officiating, because it sometimes is. He supplied his standard plaudits, saying NFL officers are “superior,” however he additionally stated, “we now have to proceed to attempt to get higher.” And that effort might begin on the prime.
Since 2020, the NFL officiating division has been led by former referee Walt Anderson, who assumed management after initially being employed in a coaching and improvement function. He’ll flip 72 in September, and the league has been doing background work for 2 seasons within the occasion he retires. However until the NFL makes some structural and monetary adjustments to the division, it might wind up in the identical spot that led to Anderson’s unique ascension: With an absence of certified candidates who need the job.
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The league quietly employed two new officiating vice presidents — George Stewart (coaching/improvement) and Jon Berger (replay) — previously 12 months. However whether or not Anderson will give technique to a brand new rent for his job stays unsure.
In the meantime, Goodell supplied one other clue a few potential path ahead, saying: “We’ve to work to make use of expertise the place we are able to to attempt to enhance their efficiency. Allow them to use expertise to ensure they get the precise reply.”
In different phrases, the NFL will think about extra methods to both improve its video help program — which permits on-site replay officers to seek the advice of on a selected menu of performs for fast reversals or confirmations — or maybe to make extra performs eligible for official assessment. House owners favor that strategy over a proper “sky decide,” who would sit within the press field and have the identical authority as an on-field official to throw flags or advocate they be picked up. House owners favor to restrict choices that have an effect on video games to on-field officers as a lot as attainable.
Revamp the kickoff
A number of NFL officers, together with Goodell, are promising to revamp the kickoff to make sure it’s not misplaced without end. That may require a big overhaul of the present guidelines after making use of a Band-Help in 2023 that ensured a pointy drop within the variety of returns.
Solely 21.8% of kickoffs have been returned and, because of a one-year rule that noticed honest catches on the 25-yard line, almost three-fourths of kickoffs went for touchbacks. There have been 92 honest catches. These numbers have been unprecedented in league historical past, however the NFL did achieve decreasing concussions on kickoffs to eight from 20 in 2022. League officers confused that the drop was solely as a result of discount in returns and that the speed of concussions per return didn’t change.
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Goodell stated in a information convention forward of Tremendous Bowl LVIII that “we have to innovate” the kickoff and recommended it could be one of many league’s prime priorities this spring. The league has studied the XFL’s strategy, utilized in 2020 and 2023, and will undertake it as early because the 2024 season.
In that model of the kickoff, everybody however the kicker and returner are lined up throughout from one another on the receiving group’s 35- and 30-yard traces, and may’t transfer till the returner secures the ball or after three seconds cross when it hits the bottom.
That design all however eliminates high-impact collisions and has led to return charges of greater than 90% over two seasons. There are a number of obstacles to the NFL incorporating it, most notably the historic reticence of homeowners to undertake vital aesthetic adjustments to the sport. It is also value noting that the United Soccer League — a merged league of XFL and USFL groups — is anticipated to make use of a kickoff that extra carefully resembles the NFL’s rule, with the notable exception of kicking off from the 20-yard line to primarily get rid of touchbacks.
Plan worldwide build-out
NFL homeowners voted in December to extend the utmost quantity of worldwide video games it performs per season from 4 to eight for the 2025 season. That plan coincides with an growth into new nations for these video games. The NFL has already introduced a 2024 recreation in Brazil, to be hosted by the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, and one other recreation in Spain through the 2025 season.
The upshot is that the NFL is on the verge of sending half its groups to play a global recreation every season, an enormous shift from an occasional season interruption to at least one that’s embedded within the cloth of yearly. It is also the logical stepping stone to ultimately having a global recreation each week of the season, a construction that appears extra reasonable than relocating (or increasing) a single franchise abroad.
Cousins is arguably the largest single domino in figuring out the path of the 2024 free agent market. His contract with the Minnesota Vikings is scheduled to void on March 13, making him ineligible for the franchise tag. At the same time as he approaches his thirty sixth birthday and is rehabilitating a torn proper Achilles tendon, Cousins can be the highest passer accessible available on the market.
He has stated he hopes to complete his profession in Minnesota, and the group’s decision-makers have stated they are going to attempt to re-sign him. He will not be low-cost, nevertheless, and the negotiations will seemingly come all the way down to what number of totally assured years the Vikings are keen to provide him. If he hits the market, a number of groups might wind up bidding for his providers.
ESPN’s Matt Bowen ranked Cousins because the NFL’s No. 3 free agent. Different probably accessible quarterbacks embody Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson, if he and the Denver Broncos half methods as anticipated.
Free company might additionally characteristic a gaggle of high-end defensive gamers: defensive tackles Chris Jones, Justin Madubuike and Christian Wilkins; together with edge rushers Josh Allen, Brian Burns and Danielle Hunter.
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Outline (and perhaps ban) hip-drop tackles
The NFL has been finding out an increase in a selected tackling type that arose from restrictions to hitting gamers within the head and neck space. Briefly, defenders seize ball carriers and use their physique weight to drag down the opponent, generally by leaving their toes. The ball provider’s legs can twist awkwardly from the power, inflicting accidents from excessive ankle sprains to damaged bones.
The speed of accidents on such tackles over the previous few seasons is 25 instances the speed of a typical sort out, in response to the league. “It’s an unforgiving habits and one which we have to attempt to outline and get out of the sport,” stated Jeff Miller, the NFL’s government vice chairman of communications, public affairs and coverage.
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Defining the play in a manner that may be officiated, and thus penalized, might show tough. Nevertheless it’s value noting the NFL has different well being and security guidelines on the books which might be largely unenforced throughout video games, most notably the “helmet rule” established in 2018 to ban gamers from decreasing their heads whereas contacting opponents. That rule isn’t penalized, and when it’s, NFL officers don’t specify it, however ends in tons of of postgame warning letters and fines per season.
One other potential rule change the NFL will think about: Eliminating the obligatory touchback after a fumble into (and out of) the tip zone, one thing the XFL and the USFL each experimenting with.
Await the Bears’ choice atop the 2024 draft
The Chicago Bears have the No. 1 total choose within the draft for the second consecutive 12 months. The prolonged NFL world is ready to see if they are going to apply it to a franchise quarterback — and thus transfer on from Justin Fields — or repeat their 2023 choice and commerce down.
Their choice presumably will dictate the long run residence of USC quarterback Caleb Williams, and ultimately the 2 different prime passers within the draft: North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels. It might additionally affect the place Ohio State receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. lands.
Fields has made incremental enchancment over three seasons with the Bears, however over that interval he nonetheless ranks No. 28 in QBR amongst certified passers. He is now eligible for a contract extension, and the Bears’ days of getting him locked into the low salaries of a rookie contract are numbered. Buying and selling him, drafting Williams and locking into one other rookie contract would lengthen probably the most priceless roster benefits within the NFL.
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Speed up position-specific helmets
As a part of the NFL’s program to encourage private-industry innovation, three place teams had the choice to make use of helmets in 2023 that have been designed to guard towards the kind of injurious contact they sometimes encounter. They’ve existed for offensive and defensive linemen since 2021, offering additional help for the helmet-to-helmet contact they obtain simply after the snap. A quarterback mannequin was launched final season, centered on including safety to the again of the top when it hits the bottom.
There are anticipated to be as many as eight completely different helmet fashions for different positions in 2024, NFL officers stated. Future research will concentrate on receivers, cornerbacks and safeties.
Place-specific helmets usually are not game-changers within the violent sport, however together with using Guardian Cap helmet coverings and different mitigation instruments, they assist chip away on the bigger downside of mind accidents within the NFL.
Research the drop in scoring
The NFL carefully screens its offensive numbers, and in latest many years, homeowners have not hesitated to tweak guidelines in ways in which lock in a sure stage of scoring. So it is value noting that factors and yards per recreation have dropped in every of the previous three seasons, a time interval that’s longer than a blip and one that can immediate a response sooner or later if the numbers do not stage off organically.
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To be honest, the league’s historic highs got here through the COVID-affected 2020 season, partially as a result of the league’s on-field officers executed a pointy drop in penalties. However the drop since then has been precipitous and hasn’t merely returned to pre-2020 numbers.
The typical recreation in 2023 had a mixed 43.5 factors and 663.2 yards, down 12% and seven.8% since 2020, respectively. Factors per recreation have been at their second-lowest since 2009, whereas yards per recreation have been at a 15-year low. And even with groups growing their fee of fourth-down makes an attempt, punts per recreation have elevated in every of the previous three seasons.
It is not but clear whether or not the NFL shall be sufficiently motivated to take motion this offseason, however the trendlines are clear.
