The NFL playoffs’ convention championship spherical schedule for the 2024 season has two nice matchups, and we have you coated with what you have to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters deliver us the largest keys and a daring prediction for every matchup.
Moreover, ESPN Stats & Data gives a giant stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Analytics author Seth Walder picks out every matchup’s largest X issue, Matt Bowen identifies a key game-planning matchup to observe in each video games, and Kevin Seifert tells us what to know in regards to the officiating. Lastly, Walder and Eric Moody give us closing rating picks for each video games. The whole lot you wish to know is right here in a single spot that can assist you prepare for an thrilling weekend of NFL playoff soccer.
Let’s get into the total convention championship slate, together with Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy vs. Jared Goff.
Leap to a matchup:KC-BAL | DET-SF
3 p.m. ET | CBS | Unfold: BAL -3.5 (44.5)
What to observe for: This recreation marks the primary playoff assembly between Mahomes and Jackson. Within the common season, Mahomes is 3-1 in opposition to Jackson, which is probably the most wins of any beginning quarterback in opposition to Jackson (common season and playoffs). Of their most up-to-date assembly in 2021, Jackson beat Mahomes and the Chiefs by speeding for 107 yards and scoring three touchdowns, together with flipping into the top zone for the profitable rating. — Jamison Hensley
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Daring prediction: The Ravens and Chiefs will mix for a minimum of 45 factors. These have been the highest two groups within the common season in scoring protection, with Baltimore main the way in which at 16.5 factors allowed per recreation and Kansas Metropolis proper behind at 17.3. However Jackson and Mahomes will probably be too good to cease, and every crew will prime 20 factors. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Steve Spagnuolo has been the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator since 2019. In that point no crew has allowed extra speeding touchdowns to quarterbacks (26) within the common season than the Chiefs.
Matchup X issue: Mahomes’ scrambling capability. The Chiefs have had a tough time within the passing recreation all season lengthy, and it is solely going to get more durable in opposition to Baltimore, which allowed the second-lowest open rating to opposing receivers (ESPN’s receiver monitoring metrics) and recorded probably the most sacks within the league (60). Mahomes is a really efficient scrambler and must generate manufacturing along with his legs on Sunday. — Walder
Sport-plan key: Kansas Metropolis’s protection loves to make use of man protection within the crimson zone, particularly inside its personal 10-yard line. Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken ought to have some solutions there, with Jackson’s receivers working crossers and delaying their releases. The Ravens have been eighth in crimson zone effectivity, scoring a TD on 61.8% of their journeys contained in the 20. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen
Accidents: Chiefs | Ravens
Officiating notice: Referee Shawn Smith’s regular-season crew threw the third-most flags within the NFL this season, a mean of 14.8 per recreation. Smith has additionally made an above-average variety of roughness calls. He threw the third-most flags for roughing the passer (eight), and total his crew ranked No. 1 with 25 pointless roughness calls. — Seifert
Betting nugget: Mahomes is 3-1 outright and 2-2 in opposition to the unfold in opposition to Jackson. Three of the 4 conferences went over the entire, with every matchup combining for a minimum of 51 factors. The typical for the earlier 4 over/unders was 52.4 with none decrease than 49.
Moody’s choose: Ravens 25, Chiefs, 21Walder’s choose: Ravens 26, Chiefs 20FPI prediction: BAL, 63.6% (by a mean of 4.6 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Chiefs are headed to the AFC title recreation with a brand new identification … Ravens’ run to AFC title recreation vs. Chiefs fueled by surprises … Thuney unlikely to play vs. Ravens … Jackson expects ‘heavyweight battle’ vs. Mahomes
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How J.J. Watt would attempt to cease Lamar Jackson
J.J. Watt tells “The Pat McAfee Present” how the Chiefs’ protection ought to attempt to decelerate Lamar Jackson.
6:30 p.m. ET | Fox | Unfold: SF -7 (50.5)
What to observe for: It is a matchup of the established playoff favourite (the 49ers) in opposition to the upstart postseason underdog (the Lions). San Francisco will probably be making its NFL-record nineteenth convention championship recreation look. Detroit is in simply its second convention title recreation of the Tremendous Bowl period and first because the 1991 season.
However this recreation additionally has all of the makings of a heavyweight battle between two of the league’s most bodily groups. How the Niners’ run protection — which ranks twenty fifth in speeding yards allowed (128.6) and twenty eighth in yards per carry allowed (4.8) since Week 15 — holds up in opposition to the Lions’ two-headed speeding assault of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will go a great distance in figuring out whether or not Detroit can spring the upset. — Nick Wagoner
Daring prediction: Gibbs will rush for a landing in his third consecutive playoff recreation. Sony Michel, Tim Hightower, Jamal Lewis, William Floyd and Tony Dorsett are the one NFL rookies with touchdowns in three playoff video games, however Gibbs will change into the sixth to perform the uncommon feat. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The 49ers have been the hardest crew to deal with within the NFL this season, main the league in yards after contact (95.3 per recreation). Within the NFC Championship Sport, the Lions’ protection will look to place a cease to that, because it leads the league in yards after contact allowed per recreation (63.5).
Matchup X issue: Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions’ cross protection is the weakest unit left within the playoffs, rating thirtieth in EPA per dropback over the course of the season. Hutchinson is one one who can change that in a flash, and he has been a distinct participant within the postseason with a 29% cross rush win charge — greater than double his regular-season quantity. He additionally has 8.0 sacks in his previous 4 video games. Detroit, the underdog, wants one thing particular — a strip sack, maybe? — from Hutchinson to place this recreation again on stage phrases. — Walder
Sport-plan key: Detroit has to get Purdy off-schedule with stress. Together with the playoffs, Detroit has registered a blitz charge of 28.3% on first and second down, which ranks within the prime 10. The Lions merely cannot let Purdy throw in rhythm or enable coach Kyle Shanahan to regulate the tempo. Learn extra at ESPN+. — Bowen
2023 NFL Playoffs
• Our information to Chiefs-Ravens, Lions-49ers »• How every crew can win this weekend (ESPN+) »• Full playoff bracket and schedule »
Accidents: Lions | 49ers
Officiating notice: Referee Clete Blakeman’s regular-season crew took to coronary heart the NFL’s midseason emphasis on offensive offside penalties, throwing a league-high 5 such flags. It was ranked second within the NFL in flags (53) associated to defensive cross protection: unlawful contact, defensive cross interference and defensive holding. — Seifert
Betting nugget: The Lions are 13-6 in opposition to the unfold, the second-best mark behind the Raiders (12-5). Overs are 12-7 in Lions video games. The 49ers are 9-9 in opposition to the unfold with overs going 10-8.
Moody’s choose: Lions 31, 49ers 28Walder’s choose: 49ers 34, Lions 24FPI prediction: SF, 74.1% (by a mean of 8.5 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Lions flip consideration to 49ers after ousting Bucs in playoffs … Purdy on playoff struggles: ‘It is a new recreation’ … Campbell hyperlinks winless 2008 Lions to success of 2023 crew … Samuel, Williams present 49ers with management
