All six wild-card video games are within the books, which implies the divisional spherical matchups are lastly set. Within the AFC, the Texans will journey to Baltimore to play the Ravens, whereas the Chiefs will head to Buffalo to play the Payments. On the NFC facet, the Packers will play the 49ers in San Francisco, and the Lions will tackle the Buccaneers at dwelling after Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia on Monday.
Let’s look forward to the divisional spherical schedule, which is able to embody the primary postseason video games of the marketing campaign for the Niners and the Ravens, who every had a bye. To get you prepared for subsequent week’s slate, Stephen Holder picked out the most important factor to observe in every matchup, and Seth Walder explored how every group can win to advance to the convention championships.
Bounce to a matchup:GB-SF | TB-DET | HOU-BAL | KC-BUF
NFC
When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox)
What to know: Packers quarterback Jordan Love confirmed beautiful accuracy in opposition to the Cowboys’ edge rush and protection in his playoff debut Sunday. However the problem posed by the rested 49ers coming off a bye supplies a good greater check. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is not any postseason rookie, and he has some unfinished enterprise after his scorching begin within the 2022 playoffs was short-circuited by an elbow harm within the NFC Championship Recreation.
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With Niners coach Kyle Shanahan aiming to enhance his postseason report to 7-3 in seven seasons, search for San Francisco to rely closely on Christian McCaffrey and the working recreation. That is the place this matchup may flip, permitting the 49ers to assault a Inexperienced Bay weak point. No NFL group had extra runs performs of 10 or extra yards than San Francisco’s 74 within the common season. In the meantime, the Packers rank within the backside third in speeding yards in opposition to after first contact (twenty ninth with 906) and yards allowed per rush (twenty third at 4.4). — Holder
Why the 49ers will win: Why will not they win? I can ask that query from now till the Tremendous Bowl, as a result of after the Packers dismantled the Cowboys, that left San Francisco and not using a main menace remaining within the convention. The 49ers are one of the best group in soccer, and so they’re one of the best group left within the NFC, by far.
San Francisco boasts one of the best trait a Tremendous Bowl hopeful can have: the No. 1 offense (together with the No. 1 passing offense). And it is by loads. The Niners’ 0.16 anticipated factors added (EPA) per play was nicely forward of the No. 2 group, the already-eliminated Dolphins at 0.12. Purdy is supported by an absurd set of playmakers in McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Oh, and we’re two paragraphs in, and I have never talked about the protection, with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Chase Younger speeding the passer. The 49ers have so many strengths that they do not even want all of them to click on to win. — Walder
Why the Packers will win: The flip facet of all of the compliments I bestowed on San Francisco is that they’re all dangerous information for Inexperienced Bay. These two groups should not in the identical league. But it surely’s soccer. Issues occur. The Packers may win, and it begins with Love — not simply because he is the quarterback however due to the kind of quarterback he has developed into over the course of the marketing campaign. From Week 10 till the tip of the common season, Love completed second in QBR. The one signal-caller forward of him? Dak Prescott, whom Love simply outdueled within the wild-card spherical.
Defensively, though the Packers have been disappointing all season, that is nonetheless a gifted group. Might the Packers put all of it collectively of their greatest recreation of the season? It stays attainable. Turnovers, fortunate bounces and an A-game from their protection are most likely all vital for the Packers to tug off this upset. But it surely may occur. — Walder
When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC)
What to know: The Lions have the prospect to make extra historical past by successful a number of playoff video games in the identical season for the primary time since their 1957 championship run. Little doubt, Eminem will definitely need to present up for that. It is no thriller how they’ve gotten right here, both. The town of Detroit could embrace its underdog persona, however after beating the Rams to advance, the Lions can be favored right here due to their productive offense. They ranked within the prime 5 this season in yards per play (third), scoring (fifth), passing yards (second) and speeding yards (fifth). The Lions displayed that offensive proficiency in a 20-6 regular-season win over the Buccaneers, outgaining Tampa Bay 380 yards to 251 again in October.
However the Buccaneers have gained six out of seven — together with Monday evening’s victory over the Eagles — and are an skilled bunch in terms of postseason play. Tom Brady could be gone, however most of the teammates who joined him in these playoff appearances stay. They will not be intimidated by the stakes. — Holder
Why Lions will win: Edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson is out of the blue enjoying at a distinct stage. He has all the time been good, however the superior metrics have been by no means implausible. Now? He is out of the blue on a three-game multi-sack streak and posted a 33% cross rush win fee within the wild-card spherical — the best of any participant within the playoffs getting into Monday evening. Towards Buccaneers deal with Luke Goedeke (below-average 86% cross block win fee within the common season), Hutchinson has the benefit, and that would make a giant distinction for the protection … the unit that’s presupposed to be Detroit’s weak point.
1:53
Stephen A. impressed by physicality of the Lions
Stephen A. Smith discusses the assertion the Lions made with their win over the Rams.
The opposite facet of the ball is clicking beneath offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. He is getting probably the most out of quarterback Jared Goff, tight finish Sam LaPorta was capable of return to motion, and Detroit has the most effective working video games within the league. Let’s be actual: the Lions are the superior group right here. They only must play as much as their potential. — Walder
Why Buccaneers will win: If you happen to squint at these groups’ strengths and weaknesses, you possibly can see a path for the Bucs. Their offense is imbalance. They cannot run the ball, however their cross recreation has been pretty efficient all season with Baker Mayfield. The Buccaneers ranked ninth in EPA per dropback (0.10) within the common season. That is simply nice in opposition to Detroit. The Lions’ run protection is strong; it is cross protection the place they wrestle.
With a purpose to beat the Eagles, the Bucs deployed their typical blitz-heavy technique — they blitzed on 40% of opponent dropbacks within the common season, third-most — and it labored. Might it work once more in opposition to Detroit? On the very least, the Lions aren’t blitz-beaters. Goff’s QBR dropped from Eleventh-best general to Fifteenth-best when dealing with the blitz. Combine in somewhat luck, and you’ll’t rule Tampa Bay out. — Walder
AFC
When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+)
What to know: Welcome again to the postseason, Lamar Jackson. The main candidate for NFL MVP will begin his first postseason recreation because the 2020 season. Jackson was injured and missed Baltimore’s lone playoff recreation final season, however his presence offers the Ravens their greatest motive for optimism in making a run on the Tremendous Bowl.
For the Texans, it is an opportunity to shock the world. However for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and rookie coach DeMeco Ryans, will probably be a large check in opposition to a Baltimore protection that led the NFL in sacks throughout the common season (60). Houston can be dealing with the most popular group within the league down the stretch, because the Ravens gained six of their previous seven video games. And since Week 11, Baltimore has the best level margin within the NFL (plus-90). — Holder
Why the Ravens will win: The 2023 Ravens’ protection completed sixth in EPA per play (minus-0.1) amongst all groups over the previous 10 seasons. Sixth! Baltimore’s unbelievable protection — with all its simulated strain that appears to continuously create sack alternatives — offers the Ravens an awesome likelihood in opposition to anybody.
I have never even talked about the doubtless league MVP but. Jackson completed the season scorching, with unbelievable performances in opposition to the 49ers after which the Dolphins to shut out his common season (he sat in Week 18). With actual receivers on this offense, together with Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr., each play is a continuing twin menace of Jackson’s legs and arm. Baltimore can win with offense or protection (heck, and even particular groups). And that is why the Ravens are so powerful. — Walder
2023 NFL Playoffs
• Early have a look at the divisional spherical »• Wild-card overreactions (ESPN+) »• Barnwell: Huge questions (ESPN+) »• Full playoff bracket and schedule »
Why the Texans will win: Effectively, how about Stroud? Certain, there are different causes — from receiver Nico Collins to rookie edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. — to love Houston, however what Stroud has achieved in latest weeks offers the Texans hope in opposition to anybody. And that features Baltimore. Since Week 16, Stroud ranks third in QBR, behind solely Jackson and Love. Stroud is a rookie rising into the skilled quarterback he’ll grow to be earlier than our eyes, and the development is going on quick. He is already on the level that Houston has grow to be harmful.
Oh, and the one protection that was higher than Baltimore this season? Cleveland. And Stroud dealt with that check simply nice within the wild-card spherical. — Walder
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
What to know: Time to hit the street, Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs quarterback will play a street playoff recreation for the primary time in his sensible profession, giving the Payments one other shot at a group that has ousted them from the playoffs twice prior to now three seasons. In a rematch of the time beyond regulation playoff traditional between these groups within the 2021 divisional spherical, the Chiefs and Payments will meet once more at Highmark Stadium.
Each golf equipment gained their opening-round video games with relative ease, with the Chiefs eliminating the Dolphins and the Payments sending the Steelers dwelling. The depth will get ratcheted up subsequent weekend, although. Mahomes wasn’t significantly fazed by enjoying on the street this season, finishing 69.7% of his makes an attempt. And he’s 38-11 on the street within the common season for his profession, probably the most wins by any QB of their first 50 street begins since 1950, per ESPN Stats & Info. However Mahomes additionally had eight interceptions in video games performed away from Arrowhead in 2023. Will that development proceed in Buffalo? — Holder
Why the Payments will win: Did you see Josh Allen’s 52-yard landing run? For all the eye on Allen’s errors, the explanation Buffalo has the most effective offenses within the league is how harmful he will be whereas creating on his personal. He generated double the EPA (60.2) of some other quarterback on designed carries and scrambles this season.
Outdueling Mahomes is one thing completely totally different than besting Mason Rudolph, like Allen did simply within the wild-card spherical. However on paper, the Payments have one of the best offense on this recreation, and it isn’t even shut. That is an important benefit to have on this recreation. — Walder
2:04
McAfee: Are the Chiefs again to being the Chiefs?
Pat McAfee likes what he noticed from Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in taking down the Dolphins.
Why the Chiefs will win: The Chiefs can be underdogs, however they’ve a few key components (past the plain of Mahomes) working of their favor. First, the emergence of receiver Rashee Rice. The Chiefs’ offense was plagued all through the season by the shortage of a second receiving choice past an growing older and declining Travis Kelce. Rice, who produced a powerful 2.6 yards per route run within the common season, performed an growing position because the 12 months went on after which exploded within the wild-card spherical for 130 yards on eight receptions in opposition to the Dolphins. The Chiefs may need discovered the playmaker they wanted simply in time.
Second, Kansas Metropolis’s protection is reliable. Certain, the climate may need hindered the Dolphins on Saturday. But it surely took greater than low temperatures to carry what was the second-best offense in soccer within the common season to simply seven factors within the postseason. The Chiefs’ protection moved as much as fourth in EPA per play (minus-0.06) for the season with its efficiency. That facet of the ball completely offers them an opportunity in opposition to Buffalo. — Walder
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