NFL Week 11 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

NFL Nation, ESPNNov 15, 2024, 06:45 AM ET

The Week 11 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we have got you coated with what you have to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the largest keys to each recreation, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Analysis crew supplies a giant stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X elements, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us closing rating picks for each recreation. All the things you wish to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.

Let’s get into the complete Week 11 slate, together with an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Steelers and the Chiefs’ journey to Buffalo. All of it culminates with a “Monday Evening Soccer” matchup between the Texans and the Cowboys on ESPN. (Sport instances are Sunday except in any other case famous.)

Thursday: PHI 26, WSH 18Byes: ARI, CAR, NYG, TB

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -3 (47.5 O/U)

Ravens storyline to look at: In his previous eight video games, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is 7-1, throwing 22 landing passes and one interception. However the Steelers have contained Jackson greater than some other crew. He’s 1-3 towards Pittsburgh and has totaled 4 landing passes and 7 interceptions whereas getting sacked 20 instances. — Jamison Hensley

Steelers storyline to look at: The Steelers are lastly opening AFC North play, they usually’ll do it with an offense that might give the Ravens matches. With Russell Wilson on the helm, the Steelers are averaging 230 passing yards per recreation and 30.3 factors per recreation prior to now three weeks. The Ravens, in the meantime, are permitting a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per recreation along with 25.3 factors per recreation. To make issues worse, the Ravens might be with out security Kyle Hamilton (ankle). — Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Ravens have allowed an NFL-high 22 completions this season on passes 20 or extra yards downfield.

Daring prediction: Steelers defensive sort out Keeanu Benton will document not less than two quarterback hits. He rattled off 5 straight video games with a quarterback hit to start out the season however hasn’t had one since Week 5. He is enjoying extra, and his move rush win charge is a robust 12% at defensive sort out — eleventh greatest on the place. — Walder

Accidents: Ravens | Steelers

Fantasy X issue: Steelers broad receiver George Pickens. The rapport between Pickens and Wilson is plain. He has scored 20 or extra fantasy factors in two of his previous three video games. He faces a Ravens protection that permits essentially the most fantasy factors per recreation to broad receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Overs are 9-1 in Ravens video games this season, which is the best charge within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Ravens 33, Steelers 30Moody’s decide: Ravens 30, Steelers 27Walder’s decide: Ravens 28, Steelers 22FPI prediction: BAL, 60.9% (by a mean of 4.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Can the Ravens repair their league-worst move protection? … Steelers LB Queen says Ravens did not need him again

Who must win extra: Lamar or Russ?

Stephen A. Smith, Mina Kimes, Dan Orlovsky and Kimberley A. Martin debate if Lamar Jackson or Russell Wilson wants a win extra of their Week 11 showdown.

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -5 (40.5 O/U)

Packers storyline to look at: Coach Matt LaFleur and the Packers have gained 10 straight towards the Bears. A loss Sunday would finish not solely that streak but in addition one other one: The Packers haven’t began 0-3 in division play since 2005, however they have already got misplaced to the Vikings and Lions this season. The 19-year streak of avoiding an 0-3 division begin is the second-longest energetic streak behind the Patriots, who have not began 0-3 in division play since 1994. — Rob Demovsky

Bears storyline to look at: Thomas Brown takes over at offensive coordinator for Shane Waldron, who was fired Tuesday, and can name performs for a Bears offense that has gone 23 consecutive drives with out a landing. Coach Matt Eberflus implored the offense to show extra “creativity” after the Bears stumbled throughout a three-game dropping streak throughout which they rank useless final in factors (9.0), yards per play (3.7), third-down conversion charge (15%) and touchdowns (0). The Bears are 2-10 in NFC North video games underneath Eberflus, whose .167 win share in division play is the worst within the NFL since 2022. — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: Quarterback Jordan Love has thrown an interception in seven straight video games, which is the longest single-season streak by a Packers signal-caller since 2005 (Brett Favre, 10).

Editor’s Picks

2 Associated

Daring prediction: Bears quarterback Caleb Williams can have his first QBR over 50 since Week 6. I am betting altering to Brown because the offensive playcaller will assist spark the offense — which certainly has the expertise to be higher than it has been. — Walder

Accidents: Packers | Bears

Fantasy X issue: Packers tight finish Tucker Kraft. He has scored 12 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of his previous six video games. What stands out is his means to realize yards after the catch, the place he leads the Packers. Kraft has a positive matchup dealing with a Bears protection that permits the ninth-most receiving yards per recreation to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS at residence this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Packers 24, Bears 15Moody’s decide: Packers 24, Bears 16Walder’s decide: Packers 27, Bears 20FPI prediction: GB, 63.5% (by a mean of 4.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jacobs brings ‘totally different dynamic’ to Packers’ backfield … QB Williams believes Bears have his again amid struggles … OC Waldron fired: What’s subsequent for Bears, QB Williams

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: DET -14 (46.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to look at: Quarterback Mac Jones will make his second begin for Trevor Lawrence (shoulder). Jones is coming off a recreation by which he threw for 111 yards, turned the ball over thrice and led the Jaguars to only 143 yards of offense (the fifth-lowest whole in franchise historical past) in a loss to Minnesota. One factor that might assistance is getting receiver Brian Thomas Jr. concerned once more. He has had 4 catches for 34 yards the previous two weeks. — Mike DiRocco

Lions storyline to look at: New defensive lineman Za’Darius Smith is anticipated to make his Lions debut towards Jacksonville after being traded from Cleveland final week. Smith was not activated final Sunday to permit him to get acclimated to the group, however he is able to go this week. The Lions aren’t placing stress on him to fill the function of Professional Bowl edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who underwent surgical procedure to restore his fractured tibia and fibula, however to raise the protection in his personal method. “I am not going to be wanting on the stats,” coach Dan Campbell mentioned. “I simply wish to know that he is doing his job and he is as productive as he might be in that.” — Eric Woodyard

Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-6 this season in one-score video games (determined by eight or fewer factors). That is essentially the most such losses within the NFL.

Daring prediction: Lions linebacker Jack Campbell will document not less than 11 whole tackles. Campbell ranks third amongst all gamers in run cease win charge (48.6%) and is recording a sort out or help on 25% of opponent run performs, a really excessive charge. — Walder

Accidents: Jaguars | Lions

Fantasy X issue: Lions working again David Montgomery. He is averaging 15.6 touches and 15.4 fantasy factors per recreation, making him a dependable possibility. Additionally, the Jaguars’ protection is permitting the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs, so count on Montgomery to see loads of motion. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jaguars can clinch the underneath on their win whole (8.5) with a loss. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Lions 31, Jaguars 14Moody’s decide: Lions 34, Jaguars 17Walder’s decide: Lions 31, Jaguars 13FPI prediction: DET, 86.7% (by a mean of 16.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jags rule out Lawrence, hope for post-bye return … Lions TE LaPorta day-to-day with shoulder harm … Lions’ last-second win interrupted by flight announcement

Ought to Jared Goff be out of the MVP race?

Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky debate whether or not Lions QB Jared Goff needs to be within the MVP race after a 5-interception efficiency towards the Texans.

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIN -6 (39.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to look at: Sunday’s recreation would be the Vikings’ third consecutive AFC South matchup. They’ve gained the primary two, towards the Colts and Jaguars, regardless of quarterback Sam Darnold committing three turnovers in every recreation. However their protection has pressured 5 turnovers throughout that stretch, and will probably be primed to generate extra towards a Titans offense that has dedicated 17 this season, tied for the third most within the league. — Kevin Seifert

Titans storyline to look at: The Titans are nicely conscious of the Vikings’ tenacious protection and the way it confuses quarterbacks. Contemplating the offensive line points and quarterback Will Levis’ inexperience, it might appear as if Tennessee is at a serious drawback. Titans coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz mentioned they wish to make it simpler for Levis to see the solutions to the blitz early within the play and present Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores they’ve counters to his in depth blitz package deal. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: Vikings broad receiver Justin Jefferson has gone three straight video games with out a receiving landing, his longest streak this season. He has not had a four-game drought since 2022, when he went six straight video games with out a landing reception.

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Daring prediction: Titans edge Harold Landry III will document a sack. Although he has just one sack in his previous 5 video games, Landry has a 0.74-second move rush get-off, the fifth quickest of any participant with not less than 100 move rushes, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. And Darnold has taken 4 sacks in three of his previous 5 video games. — Walder

Accidents: Vikings | Titans

Fantasy X issue: Titans broad receiver Calvin Ridley. His 25.4 fantasy factors in Week 10 towards a troublesome Chargers protection was a season excessive. After the DeAndre Hopkins commerce to the Chiefs, Ridley has had eight or extra targets in three straight video games and will proceed to shine towards the Vikings. Minnesota’s protection offers up the third-most fantasy factors per recreation to broad receivers. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Vikings are 7-2 ATS within the first quarter this season, which is the perfect mark within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Vikings 28, Titans 14Moody’s decide: Viking 24, Titans 13Walder’s decide: Vikings 22, Titans 16FPI prediction: MIN, 65.5% (by a mean of 6.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Vikings’ conundrum: QB Darnold’s aggressiveness vs. INTs

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -7 (43.5 O/U)

Raiders storyline to look at: The Raiders will sport a new-look offense with the identical quarterback, Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas fired its offensive coordinator, quarterbacks coach and offensive line coach earlier than the bye week, and move recreation coordinator Scott Turner was elevated to interim OC … with an help from a well-known face. Former Raiders coach and longtime NFL coach Norv Turner, Scott’s dad, joined the workers as an adviser. “A wealth of knowledge,” the youthful Turner mentioned of his father, who known as performs within the NFL from 1991 by means of 2019, with a one-year break. Minshew mentioned: “It is type of the identical bones, identical common thought, simply … a little bit bit totally different taste.” — Paul Gutierrez

Dolphins storyline to look at: Dolphins rookie linebacker Chop Robinson has recorded not less than 4 pressures in every of his previous three video games, and he recorded a sack in every of his previous two. Towards a Raiders crew that has allowed the fifth-most sacks within the NFL this season, Robinson and the Dolphins’ protection might replicate their efficiency in Week 10, after they pressured Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford 15 instances. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: The Raiders haven’t misplaced six straight video games in a single season since 2014. They began that season with 10 consecutive losses.

Daring prediction: Raiders working again Alexander Mattison, recent off a zero-reception recreation, will document a season excessive in receiving yards (at present 43). Mattison ranks fifth amongst working backs in ESPN’s general receiving rating (72), flashing sturdy open and YAC scores. — Walder

Accidents: Raiders | Dolphins

Fantasy X issue: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. He has averaged simply 13.4 fantasy factors per recreation since Week 8. However this week, Tagovailoa faces a Raiders protection that offers up the eighth-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS at residence this season. They’re 1-4 ATS as favorites. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Dolphins 24, Raiders 17Moody’s decide: Dolphins 28, Raiders 14Walder’s decide: Dolphins 26, Raiders 16FPI prediction: MIA, 62.4% (by a mean of 5.0 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Raiders sticking with Minshew over Ridder at QB … Dolphins RT Jackson out for season after surgical procedure … McDaniel ignores ex-player calling Dolphins ‘tender’

How Fulghum is approaching Raiders-Dolphins

Tyler Fulghum is getting artistic in his two-leg teaser for Raiders vs. Dolphins.

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: LAR -5 (43.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to look at: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown an interception in six straight video games, which is the second-longest energetic streak within the NFL, in response to ESPN Analysis. The Patriots’ protection has grabbed solely 4 interceptions all season, which is tied for twenty seventh within the league. — Sarah Barshop

Patriots storyline to look at: Veteran Yannick Ngakoue, who was claimed on waivers from the Ravens on Nov. 8, is anticipated to make his Patriots debut together with his major contributions coming as a move rusher. The Patriots’ protection had its greatest third-down efficiency of the season final week, holding the Bears to a 1-of-14 success charge and hopes to proceed that towards a Rams offense that was 3-of-12 on third down in final week’s loss to the Dolphins. — Mike Reiss

Stat to know: The Patriots snapped an eight-game residence dropping streak towards the Jets in Week 8. They’re searching for consecutive residence wins for the primary time since November 2022.

Daring prediction: Rams working again Kyren Williams will document 25-plus carries. The Patriots’ protection struggles to cease the run and the move, however I count on the Rams to construct a little bit of a lead right here after which let Williams carry them on lengthy drives the remainder of the way in which. They’ve the second-highest success charge (48%) on designed carries. — Walder

Accidents: Rams | Patriots

Fantasy X issue: Patriots tight finish Hunter Henry. He had a disappointing Week 10 however had scored 12-plus fantasy factors in three of his earlier 4 video games. Henry has constructed nice chemistry with quarterback Drake Maye and has a positive matchup towards a Rams protection permitting the ninth-most fantasy factors to tight ends. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Since 2022, the Rams are 4-1 ATS as highway favorites. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Rams 29, Patriots 27Moody’s decide: Rams 22, Patriots 19Walder’s decide: Rams 27, Patriots 17FPI prediction: LAR, 63.5% (by a mean of 5.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Rams CB Ramsey commerce first domino in crew philosophy change … Does QB Maye crack the highest 10 NFL rookies record?

1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NO -1 (44.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to look at: The Browns are again from their bye week, and defensive communication is a degree of emphasis after Cleveland gave up a pair of deep landing passes in a Week 9 loss to the Chargers. It is going to be key towards a Saints offense that rediscovered its explosive passing recreation from earlier within the season. New Orleans accomplished a season-high 5 passes of 20 or extra yards in final week’s win over the Falcons. — Daniel Oyefusi

Saints storyline to look at: The Saints had a late pressured fumble and interception to seal a win towards the Falcons final week, they usually hope they will make a few of these performs towards former quarterback Jameis Winston, who has had 5 interceptions in his previous 4 begins (two in two begins as a Saint in 2023 and three final week). The Saints heaped reward on Winston as a teammate and chief this week, however Saints security Tyrann Mathieu, who had an interception final week, additionally joked, “I am anticipating a shot, first play of the sport, Jameis. Throw it up there.” — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: A loss for the Saints would be the franchise’s worst 11-game begin to a season since 2005, when in addition they went 3-8.

What Fulghum expects from Browns-Saints

Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he expects the brand new coach bounce to put on off for the Saints after they face the Browns in Week 11.

Daring prediction: Browns broad receiver Elijah Moore can have 60-plus receiving yards. He had 9 targets per week in the past and managed solely 28 yards, however I count on that concentrate on quantity to nonetheless be there, particularly since he may usually draw Alontae Taylor, who has allowed 1.9 yards per protection snap this season (third most amongst slot corners), per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

Accidents: Browns | Saints

Fantasy X issue: Browns broad receiver Cedric Tillman. Cleveland is coming off a bye with Winston again underneath middle and Tillman as his No. 1 goal. The pair will likely be up towards a Saints protection that has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts. Tillman has been constant, scoring 18-plus fantasy factors in every of his previous three video games and racking up 10-plus targets in two of these. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints are 1-5 ATS of their previous six video games (they coated final week). Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Browns 22, Saints 20Moody’s decide: Browns 27, Saints 24Walder’s decide: Browns 30, Saints 23FPI prediction: CLE, 50.0% (by a mean of 0.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Browns GM noncommittal on Watson’s future in Cleveland … How Saints’ wage cap math might influence Carr, veterans … LT Wills: ‘Enterprise choice’ to sit down out recreation backfired

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: NYJ -4 (43.5 O/U)

Colts storyline to look at: Quarterback Anthony Richardson returns to the lineup for the Colts, and that might be a lift for Indy’s run recreation. Within the 5 full video games Richardson performed this season, the Colts averaged 5.2 yards per carry and 142.4 speeding yards per recreation and had 28 rushes of 10 yards or longer. The Colts recorded seven of their 9 whole speeding touchdowns in these 5 video games. In the meantime, working again Jonathan Taylor has 4 100-yard performances in simply seven video games this season. — Stephen Holder

Jets storyline to look at: The Jets, who missed 20 tackles in final week’s blowout loss to the Cardinals, put a serious emphasis on tackling fundamentals in observe. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich, a former NFL linebacker, gave a tackling presentation to your complete crew (sure, even offense). Additionally they practiced in pads greater than traditional. Previously 5 video games, the Jets have allowed 501 yards after contact, rating thirty first over that span. — Wealthy Cimini

Stat to know: Jets broad receiver Davante Adams’ 51% catch share is the second worst within the NFL since Week 7 amongst move catchers with a minimal of 25 targets.

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Daring prediction: Richardson will break off a 30-plus-yard run and lead the Colts to victory. Richardson actually comes together with his justifiable share of variance, however that may work in Indianapolis’ favor, too. And you’ll normally rely on the Jets to beat themselves. — Walder

Accidents: Colts | Jets

Fantasy X issue: Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers. He hasn’t delivered the fantasy season that managers had been hoping for, with simply two video games with greater than 20 fantasy factors. Nevertheless, Rodgers has a positive matchup towards a Colts protection that permits the seventh-most passing yards per recreation and the fifth-highest completion share. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-0 ATS towards groups with dropping information this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Colts 21, Jets 14Moody’s decide: Jets 24, Colts 17Walder’s decide: Colts 23, Jets 17FPI prediction: NYJ, 59.2% (by a mean of three.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Colts bench Flacco, flip again to Richardson at QB … Inside Rodgers’ difficult relationship with the Jets … How does Ulbrich examine to Saleh?

4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (44.5 O/U)

Falcons storyline to look at: The Falcons enable the best completion share to opposing quarterbacks within the league (70.3%), are tied for worst in quarterback stress share (27.4%) and have the fewest sacks (9). Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has fared significantly better whereas not underneath stress — finishing 70.2%, vs. 43.9% when underneath duress. — Marc Raimondi

Broncos storyline to look at: The Falcons would be the fourth offense at present ranked within the prime 10 that the Broncos have confronted this season. Two instances (towards Tampa and Kansas Metropolis), Denver’s protection made life pretty depressing for these offenses, and one offense (Baltimore) put collectively seven scoring drives. — Jeff Legwold

Stat to know: Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins is searching for to keep away from having consecutive video games with out a passing landing for the primary time in his profession as a starter.

Daring prediction: The Broncos’ protection will rating a landing. Atlanta’s offense versus Denver’s protection is a strength-on-strength battle, however the Broncos’ protection, which is fourth in EPA per play, is very good towards the move. — Walder

Accidents: Falcons | Broncos

Fantasy X issue: Nix. The rookie is clearly in full command, and coach Sean Payton continues to impress as a playcaller. Nix has been a dependable fantasy performer, scoring 16 or extra factors in 5 of his previous six video games, together with three with 20-plus factors. The Falcons quit the seventh-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 3-1 ATS on the highway this season after going 2-7 ATS on the highway final season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Falcons 24, Broncos 22Moody’s decide: Broncos 27, Falcons 21Walder’s decide: Broncos 20, Falcons 17FPI prediction: ATL, 58.1% (by a mean of two.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Falcons again kicker Koo regardless of 3 missed subject objectives in loss … Rookie RB Estime might be spark for Broncos’ backfield … Falcons want higher begins … Robust loss to Chiefs exhibits Broncos’ restricted margin for error

4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Seahawks storyline to look at: The tables have turned on an NFC West rivalry the Seahawks used to dominate. They’ve misplaced six straight regular-season and playoff video games to the 49ers by a mixed rating of 184-96, together with a 36-24 defeat in Week 6 that wasn’t as shut as the ultimate rating indicated. Seattle might have a number of key gamers out there Sunday who did not play within the first assembly, corresponding to Abraham Lucas, Byron Murphy II, Riq Woolen and commerce acquisition Ernest Jones IV. — Brady Henderson

49ers storyline to look at: Christian McCaffrey’s return final week helped him knock some rust off earlier than dealing with a crew towards which he has had nice success. McCaffrey has averaged 163 scrimmage yards per recreation in six conferences with Seattle and reached 125 in all. If he will get to 125 once more Sunday, he’d tie Jim Brown (vs. Philadelphia) as the one participant in NFL historical past to publish 125-plus scrimmage yards towards one crew seven consecutive instances. — Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is 8-2 in his profession towards division opponents and has a 76.7 QBR in these video games. That is the second-highest QBR by any quarterback for the reason that metric was launched in 2006 (minimal of 10 begins).

Daring prediction: Jones will document a sack. He is a fantastic blitzer however wasn’t used to speeding the passer a lot in Tennessee. Final week he recorded a season-high 10 move rushes, and I count on coach Mike Macdonald will wish to maintain deploying him like that. — Walder

Accidents: Seahawks | 49ers

Fantasy X issue: Seahawks working again Kenneth Walker III. He has seen a dip in fantasy manufacturing currently. Nevertheless, the 49ers allowed a mixed 36.7 fantasy factors to Buccaneers working backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving in Week 10, exhibiting vulnerability to the run. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The 49ers are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS in 5 conferences since 2022. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: 49ers 28, Seahawks 24Moody’s decide: 49ers 31, Seahawks 20Walder’s decide: 49ers 29, Seahawks 27FPI prediction: SF, 69.1% (by a mean of 6.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Seahawks activate Lucas from PUP, put Fant on IR … McCaffrey’s return has 49ers returning to roots … Seahawks waive main tackler Dodson in ILB shake-up … 49ers’ Lenoir will get 5-year, $92M extension

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -2 (45.5 O/U)

Chiefs storyline to look at: In seven profession video games towards the Chiefs, counting three within the playoffs, quarterback Josh Allen has 16 landing passes, three interceptions and a QBR of 74. Are the Chiefs able to preserving him from one other large recreation this time, even when Allen is throwing to a bunch of receivers depleted by accidents? Previously two weeks, the Chiefs put up little resistance towards Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield and Denver’s Bo Nix. — Adam Teicher

Payments storyline to look at: Can the Payments’ protection proceed to restrict the Chiefs’ offense within the common season? The Payments have held the Chiefs to twenty.8 factors per recreation in 4 regular-season conferences since 2020. Taking the ball away is a degree of emphasis for this protection and might be the important thing to success. The Payments have 12 straight video games with not less than one takeaway, the second-longest energetic streak within the NFL after the Lions (13). — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: The Payments have gained 5 straight video games; Buffalo’s plus-61 scoring margin in the course of the win streak is the third highest by any crew within the NFL over that span, trailing solely the Lions (plus-91) and the Eagles (plus-82)

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Daring prediction: Payments cornerback Christian Benford will decide off quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Benford is enjoying nice this season. In reality, no outdoors cornerback has allowed fewer yards per protection snap (0.6) than he has, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. A part of that’s as a result of he is permitting fewer targets than common (13%), but it surely’s additionally that he has a minus-9% completion share allowed over expectation. — Walder

Accidents: Chiefs | Payments

Fantasy X issue: Chiefs working again Kareem Hunt. Kansas Metropolis is first in time of possession (33:01), which implies we should always see lots of Hunt. He has had 20-plus touches in every of his previous 4 video games, scoring not less than 17 fantasy factors in three of them. The Payments’ protection is permitting the second-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 convention video games. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Payments 29, Chiefs 27Moody’s decide: Payments 25, Chiefs 23Walder’s decide: Payments 24, Chiefs 17FPI prediction: BUF, 53.1% (by a mean of 1.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: All of the unusual — and fortunate — methods the Chiefs have gone 9-0 … Payments’ offensive stars known as these performs for themselves — here is how they labored out

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: LAC -1.5 (47.5 O/U)

Bengals storyline to look at: Can quarterback Joe Burrow maintain attacking split-safety appears? This season, Burrow has the fifth-highest yards per try (8.4) towards these security shells, in response to NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. The Chargers use the split-safety formation on 58.1% of opponent dropbacks, the second-highest clip within the league. — Ben Child

Chargers storyline to look at: Sunday would be the first large check for the Chargers’ protection, which ranks first within the NFL in factors allowed per recreation (13.1). The Bengals are one of many NFL’s greatest offenses, averaging the sixth-most factors per recreation this 12 months (26.1). — Kris Rhim

Stat to know: A win for the Bengals would enhance their possibilities of making the playoffs from 37% to 52%, in response to ESPN Analytics.

Jim Harbaugh to McAfee: Justin Herbert is likely one of the better of all time

Jim Harbaugh talks to Pat McAfee about what makes his Chargers crew particular, beginning with Justin Herbert.

Daring prediction: Chargers broad receiver Quentin Johnston will document 80-plus receiving yards and a landing. That is as a result of he’ll most frequently line up in entrance of Cam Taylor-Britt. The Bengals cornerback has allowed 2.0 yards per protection snap this 12 months, second most amongst his place, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

Accidents: Bengals | Chargers

Fantasy X issue: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert. The Chargers have leaned extra on Herbert and the passing recreation after the bye. He has had 30 or extra move makes an attempt in three of his previous 5 video games. It is vital to notice that Herbert has scored not less than 19 fantasy factors in three consecutive video games. The Bengals enable the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to quarterbacks. See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bengals are 5-0 ATS on the highway, whereas the Chargers are 4-0 ATS at residence this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Bengals 25, Chargers 23Moody’s decide: Chargers 27, Bengals 23Walder’s decide: Bengals 27, Chargers 24FPI prediction: LAC, 52.1% (by a mean of 0.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Childhood photograph hyperlinks Zac Taylor, Jim Harbaugh earlier than Bengals-Chargers … Do the Chargers have the NFL’s greatest protection? We’re about to seek out out … Bengals coach to advocate over potential late hits of Joe Burrow

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC | ESPN BET: HOU -7.5 (47.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to look at: The Texans are averaging 119 speeding yards per recreation, fueled by working again Joe Mixon, who has the third-highest common per recreation (98.3). The Cowboys are permitting 152.1 speeding yards per recreation, so this might result in an enormous night time from Mixon. Additionally, wideout Nico Collins (hamstring) returns this week after lacking the previous 5 video games, which ought to open up extra working lanes for Mixon. — DJ Bien-Aime

Cowboys storyline to look at: Can the second week of Cooper Rush because the beginning quarterback be higher than the primary? He averaged 1.96 yards per try final week towards the Eagles, so it must be. The Cowboys are on the lookout for their first win of the season at AT&T Stadium (0-4) .They’ve had three residence losses by not less than 25 factors, matching essentially the most in crew historical past. The Cowboys haven’t misplaced 5 straight residence video games since 2015, after they completed 4-12. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: The Texans’ 15 takeaways since Week 6 leads the NFL. Houston produced solely three takeaways over Weeks 1-5.

Daring prediction: The Cowboys will fail to cross midfield within the first half even with the solar having already set. As an alternative, their largest downside will likely be themselves. And a part of the equation right here is that Houston will run throughout them and personal time of possession, barely giving Rush a lot time to work anyway. — Walder

Accidents: Texans | Cowboys

Fantasy X issue: Mixon. Houston’s passing recreation might get a lift with Collins again, however the Cowboys’ protection stays susceptible towards the run. Dallas has allowed the fifth-most fantasy factors per recreation to working backs, and its defensive entrance ranks thirtieth in run cease win charge (27.1%). See Week 11 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games, their longest ATS dropping streak since 2020 (eight straight). Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Texans 30, Cowboys 9Moody’s decide: Texans 28, Cowboys 17Walder’s decide: Texans 30, Cowboys 6FPI prediction: HOU, 71.1% (by a mean of 8.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How dangerous is Cowboys’ offense? Worst begin in McCarthy’s profession … What Prescott’s season-ending surgical procedure would imply for Cowboys

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