NFL Week 16 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with nice matchups, and we received you coated with what it is advisable to know heading into the weekend.

Our NFL Nation reporters carry us the most important keys to each sport, and analytics author Seth Walder makes a daring prediction for every matchup. The ESPN Analysis group offers an enormous stat to know and a betting nugget for every contest, whereas our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a sport projection and a take a look at the playoff image. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy soccer X components, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us remaining rating picks for each sport. All the things you need to know is right here in a single spot that will help you prepare for a loaded weekend of NFL soccer.

Let’s get into the total Week 16 slate, together with quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens searching for revenge towards the Steelers, whereas the surging Eagles attempt to lock up the NFC East title versus the Commanders. All of it culminates with a Monday Night time Soccer matchup between the Saints and the Packers on ESPN. (Recreation occasions are Sunday until in any other case famous.)

Bounce to a matchup:HOU-KC | PIT-BAL | NYG-ATLDET-CHI | CLE-CIN | TEN-INDLAR-NYJ | PHI-WSH | ARI-CARMIN-SEA | NE-BUF | JAX-LVSF-MIA | TB-DAL | NO-GB

Thursday: LAC 34, DEN 27

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -3.5 (41.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to observe: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion share (45%) below strain amongst starters, in response to NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. In the meantime, the Texans’ line of defense is third in strain charge (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can pressure Mahomes — who’s coping with a excessive ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can place itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime

Chiefs storyline to observe: The Chiefs’ protection confirmed indicators of life final week towards the Browns with 5 sacks and an improved strain charge (46%) when it did not blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most within the league, so Kansas Metropolis has a motive to imagine it could disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 complete sacks come prior to now three weeks. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: In accordance with the Elias Sports activities Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second group in NFL historical past to play video games on six totally different days of the week, becoming a member of the 1927 New York Yankees.

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Daring prediction: Mahomes will publish a Whole QBR of below 50. There is a good likelihood his scrambling will likely be restricted as he offers with a excessive ankle damage, so defending Mahomes turns into fairly a bit simpler. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed within the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, changing into the sixth group since 2002 to clinch the highest spot with no less than two video games left within the common season. 5 of the earlier six groups reached the Tremendous Bowl, although none received. Learn extra.

Accidents: Texans | Chiefs

Fantasy X issue: Texans extensive receiver Nico Collins. Sure, the Chiefs’ protection is hard, however it’s nonetheless weak. Simply take a look at the large video games it has given as much as Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy factors this season. He has had just one sport with fewer than 10 factors. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 towards the unfold (ATS) within the first half of video games this season, which is the very best within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Texans 24, Chiefs 21Moody’s decide: Chiefs 21, Texans 20Walder’s decide: Texans 23, Chiefs 20FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by a mean of two.8 factors)

Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil realized from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight yr

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to observe: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in contrast the Steelers’ run sport to an outdated truck earlier this week, saying that it would take a while to get it began, however it could put collectively some good drives. Within the two-game absence of extensive receiver George Pickens, who might be out once more this week, their offense turned extra one-dimensional and could not run the ball successfully. To clinch the AFC North title towards the league’s greatest dashing protection, the Steelers should set up the run early. — Brooke Pryor

Ravens storyline to observe: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, however they may want quarterback Lamar Jackson to interrupt out of his droop towards them. In dropping 4 of his 5 begins towards Pittsburgh, he recorded profession lows in QBR (39) and completion charge (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 occasions. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of 9 straight conferences determined by seven factors or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL historical past (common season or playoffs).

Daring prediction: The Ravens can have a win chance of over 90% at halftime. Regardless of their information, FPI views the Ravens as considerably higher, and I am inclined to imagine the mannequin. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and might clinch the AFC North title with a win, which might be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can safe a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins each lose. Learn extra.

Accidents: Steelers | Ravens

Fantasy X issue: Ravens extensive receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point efficiency towards the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged simply 10.3 fantasy factors per sport. He’s nonetheless value beginning this week. The Steelers’ protection has struggled towards exterior receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 factors, respectively, final week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Final week was the primary time the Steelers misplaced as underdogs this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Ravens 28, Steelers 25Moody’s decide: Ravens 27, Steelers 21Walder’s decide: Ravens 27, Steelers 13FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by a mean of 6.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play towards Ravens … QB Jackson’s 5 TDs vs. Giants units one other NFL mark

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ATL -9 (42.5 O/U)

Giants storyline to observe: Because the Giants attempt to keep away from a franchise-record tenth straight loss, extensive receiver Malik Nabers has a bunch of information in sight. He is 99 yards away from being a 1,000-yard receiver and two catches from passing Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. for many receptions by a rookie in franchise historical past. Nabers, with 90 catches, has a shot at Puka Nacua’s NFL rookie report of 105 catches. — Jordan Raanan

Falcons storyline to observe: Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the eighth decide within the 2024 draft, will make his first NFL begin. Coach Raheem Morris mentioned this week that Penix has not thrown a lot to the group’s beginning extensive receivers in observe as a result of he has been the scout group quarterback behind Kirk Cousins since OTAs. However Penix skilled with Ray-Ray McCloud III within the offseason, and the 2 have developed good chemistry. — Marc Raimondi

Stat to know: Operating again Bijan Robinson is one landing away from being the primary Falcons participant with 1,000 dashing yards and 10 dashing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.

Daring prediction: Penix will report a 60-plus QBR. Going through the Giants, the Falcons ought to be capable to restrict the ask on him, and I believe the end result will likely be an environment friendly efficiency in a win. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Falcons are one sport again of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta at present has a 29% likelihood of constructing the playoffs and a 21% likelihood at profitable the division, per ESPN Analytics. Learn extra.

Accidents: Giants | Falcons

Fantasy X issue: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in each sport this season, the second-longest streak within the league, and 10-plus targets in 9 of these video games. The Falcons’ protection offers up the fourth-most fantasy factors per sport to extensive receivers, so beginning the Giants’ solely viable risk can be the good play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS of their previous 9 video games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS of their previous 4 video games. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Falcons 28, Giants 14Moody’s decide: Falcons 28, Giants 17Walder’s decide: Falcons 24, Giants 16FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by a mean of 5.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Giants flip again to Lock as beginning QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Informed Penix ‘I would be in his nook’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Keep or go?

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to observe: Detroit has been bitten by the damage bug with a league-high 21 gamers at present on the injured reserve record, together with operating again David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL within the loss to the Payments. With out Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is assured in Jahmyr Gibbs’ capacity as “our lead horse.” Gibbs mentioned his on-field mindset will not change. “I have been doing this my entire life, so I do not take a look at it any totally different,” he mentioned. — Eric Woodyard

Bears storyline to observe: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Shedding is a type of issues that basically impacts me,” Williams mentioned. “It is powerful.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota by which they transformed just one third-down alternative. Williams has the third-worst off-target share (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR towards man protection, which Detroit performs on the highest charge within the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses is tied for the second-longest dropping streak in franchise historical past and their longest since dropping 14 consecutive video games in 2022-23.

Daring prediction: The Lions’ protection — sure, even with all of the accidents — will bounce again and quit 15 or fewer factors to the Bears. There’s actual motive for concern for the Lions’ protection when it faces a great offense, because it did towards the Payments final week. The Bears will not be that. — Walder

What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ possibilities on the No.1 seed within the NFC enhance to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Learn extra.

Accidents: Lions | Bears

Fantasy X issue: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per sport, and the Lions rely closely on their operating backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks Thirteenth in run block win charge (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ protection offers up the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport to operating backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS of their previous 5 as house underdogs. They’ve coated in three in a row. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Lions 34, Bears 24Moody’s decide: Lions 30, Bears 24Walder’s decide: Lions 34, Bears 13FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by a mean of 8.8 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Payments … Shedding ‘actually impacts me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on monitor for Tremendous Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort throughout skid

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to observe: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round decide who will make his fourth profession begin Sunday. His mobility ought to open some issues within the run sport, however, just like the just lately benched Jameis Winston, he must take higher care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to just one landing already. — Daniel Oyefusi

Bengals storyline to observe: Browns defensive finish Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow 9 occasions, essentially the most of any opponent in Burrow’s profession. Cincinnati is making an attempt to clean Garrett’s sack rely towards Burrow for the primary time in 5 seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) again will likely be huge for an offensive line nonetheless with out Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Child

Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in each Bengals loss this season. That is the second-best mark because the metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).

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Daring prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will report no less than 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive participant of the yr candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at excessive charge in his profession, however the pattern is restricted and I count on the Bengals to be forward, which results in extra sacks. — Walder

What’s at stake: Any likelihood for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this sport. They are going to be eradicated from playoff rivalry with a loss to the Browns, at present holding the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Learn extra.

Accidents: Browns | Bengals

Fantasy X issue: Browns operating again Jerome Ford. With out Nick Chubb (foot), Ford ought to lead the Browns’ committee for the remainder of the season. Count on him to get loads of touches, even when the Bengals get out forward early. He has been the first again on passing downs all season, so he’ll keep concerned irrespective of the rating. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS of their previous three, 1-5 ATS of their previous six and 3-9 ATS of their previous 12. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Bengals 30, Browns 13Moody’s decide: Bengals 31, Browns 14Walder’s decide: Bengals 27, Browns 13FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by a mean of 6.8 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start out vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking declare as featured operating again … South Florida route-running tradition embedded in Cleveland

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to observe: Calvin Ridley wants 221 receiving yards to succeed in the 1,000-yard mark. He did not register a reception within the first assembly with the Colts regardless of being focused eight occasions by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph would be the quarterback this time, which is nice information for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards got here with Rudolph throwing to him towards the Lions. — Turron Davenport

Colts storyline to observe: The Colts enter this week ranked twenty eighth in yards allowed per sport (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 once they completed 4-12. By some means, they’ve ranked higher in scoring protection at twenty first with 23.5 factors per sport. However an underrated byproduct has been the ensuing consequence for the offense. Indianapolis has the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per sport. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: Titans operating again Tony Pollard wants 85 scrimmage yards to succeed in 1,300 for the third straight season. He would be part of Derrick Henry as the one participant to succeed in that mark in every of the previous three seasons.

Daring prediction: Colts extensive receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus air-yard move. He has been focused on 5 such throws this season and has zero receptions, however I am satisfied the connection goes to occur this weekend. ESPN’s open rating loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 within the class. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Colts had been eradicated from playoff rivalry after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday evening. However the Titans nonetheless have one thing on the road, as their present 39% likelihood at a top-five decide will enhance with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Learn extra.

Accidents: Titans | Colts

Fantasy X issue: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer final week, finishing simply 44.7% of makes an attempt, however he rushed for 46 yards and a landing. This week, he faces a Titans protection giving up the Eleventh-most fantasy factors to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most dashing yards. Count on him to take benefit. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans highway video games have gone over the overall. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Colts 21, Titans 12Moody’s decide: Colts 24, Titans 13Walder’s decide: Colts 17, Titans 9FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by a mean of 0.1 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Nonetheless imagine I could be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the lifetime of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, however then crumble

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to observe: That is the 18th time beginning quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face one another, which will likely be tied for the fifth most amongst beginning quarterbacks within the Tremendous Bowl period (together with playoffs), in response to ESPN Analysis. Rodgers has received 13 of them, however Stafford may need the higher hand this time because the Jets have received solely twice of their previous 11 video games. — Sarah Barshop

Jets storyline to observe: Rodgers wants two landing passes to turn into solely the fifth participant in NFL historical past to hit the five hundred mark. He is enjoying his greatest ball of the yr, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions prior to now two video games. The offense has produced 58 factors and 802 yards, which is its greatest back-to-back performances of the season. — Wealthy Cimini

Stat to know: The Rams need to turn into the primary group in NFL historical past to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three video games below .500 sooner or later within the yr.

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Daring prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will report no less than a 25% move rush win charge and a sack towards Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive sort out’s 87% move block win charge is best than what Tyron Smith posted earlier than his damage, however it’s nonetheless under common. Verse is something however common, and Sunday’s sport might bolster his possibilities at defensive rookie of the yr. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Rams at present have a 54% likelihood to make playoffs and a 53% likelihood to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. These possibilities enhance to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. And so they fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Learn extra.

Accidents: Rams | Jets

Fantasy X issue: Rodgers. He got here alive final Sunday towards the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy factors. That is not shocking since Jacksonville has given up essentially the most factors to quarterbacks this season. He is arrange for one more huge sport with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his high receivers because the Rams’ protection offers up the Thirteenth-most passing yards per sport (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS towards groups with profitable information this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Rams 28, Jets 20Moody’s decide: Rams 28, Jets 24Walder’s decide: Rams 24, Jets 19FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by a mean of 0.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The actual Rodgers saving his greatest for final with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to observe: The Eagles’ move sport awoke towards the Steelers after a number of quiet video games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Vast receiver A.J. Brown was focused a season-high 11 occasions and completed with eight catches for 110 yards. Good issues occur when Hurts goes Brown’s means, because the duo tops the NFL in yards per try (12.1). — Tim McManus

Commanders storyline to observe: Within the first assembly in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders main receiver Terry McLaurin was focused a season-low two occasions. Philadelphia usually bracketed him within the crimson zone, and it did not assist that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left facet. However, prior to now three video games, Washington has moved him round extra — 40 routes run from the left facet and 22 on the fitting. Extra importantly, he has greater than 9 targets on either side throughout this stretch. — John Keim

Stat to know: Hurts has 14 dashing touchdowns, which is essentially the most within the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback via a season in NFL historical past. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the identical yr for the second-most ever.

Daring prediction: McLaurin will report below 35 receiving yards. I am absolutely shopping for the Eagles’ secondary, and he’s far and away an important Commanders goal for a protection to attempt to cease. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they want the Falcons to lose, in addition to losses by both the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Learn extra.

Accidents: Eagles | Commanders

Fantasy X issue: Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive entrance ranks twenty fourth in run cease win charge (29.1%), whereas the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win charge (72.9%). Washington additionally offers up the sixth-most dashing yards per sport to operating backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS within the first quarter this season, which is the very best within the NFL. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Eagles 28, Commanders 27Moody’s decide: Eagles 27, Commanders 24Walder’s decide: Eagles 24, Commanders 17FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by a mean of three.3 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing sport as QB Hurts offers with damaged finger … Invoice provision might support Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at identical time

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to observe: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a primary alternative to proceed their march towards a playoff spot. Their protection is giving up 217 passing yards per sport and 6.94 passing yards per play and can line up throughout an offense that’s among the many worst passing groups within the NFL, averaging 186 yards per sport (twenty ninth) and 5.69 yards per play (twenty eighth). — Josh Weinfuss

Panthers storyline to observe: Carolina most likely will likely be with out one in every of its greatest remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks final within the NFL towards the run (giving up 173 yards per sport). It additionally misplaced two extra linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That is not excellent news once you’re dealing with the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton

Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch 5 or fewer wins for the fifth time prior to now six seasons. Earlier than 2019, the franchise had solely three seasons with 5 or fewer wins since they performed their first NFL season in 1995.

Daring prediction: The Cardinals will rating 35-plus factors. It is being slept on as to only how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) with out an distinctive offensive line or extensive receiver room. And this week, he will get to indicate off towards a Carolina protection that is thirty first in EPA (anticipated factors added) allowed per play and thirtieth in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a sport again of the Rams and Seahawks for first place within the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% likelihood to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Learn extra.

Accidents: Cardinals | Panthers

Fantasy X issue: Cardinals operating again James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per sport and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy factors in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers protection that provides up essentially the most fantasy factors per sport to operating backs. Count on one other huge sport. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have coated 5 straight video games as underdogs. They’re 5-1 ATS of their previous six video games general. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21Moody’s decide: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20Walder’s decide: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by a mean of 9.7 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals security Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ points

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: MIN -3 (42.5 O/U)

Vikings storyline to observe: The Vikings have struggled to win in Seattle, a pattern that features generations of gamers, coaches, entrance places of work and possession teams. They’ve misplaced their previous 5 video games there and have received solely twice in 11 video games over the previous six many years. On paper, this season’s matchup favors the Vikings since their protection is tied for the NFL’s fourth-most sacks (42). The Seahawks have given up the league’s third-most sacks (47). — Kevin Seifert

Seahawks storyline to observe: Underneath defensive coordinator Brian Flores, the Vikings are blitzing on a league-high 39% of opponents’ dropbacks. Geno Smith has the ninth-best QBR (80.6) towards the blitz, however will he have his typical capacity to evade rushers and lengthen performs Sunday? Smith could not end Seattle’s loss to Inexperienced Bay due to a proper knee damage, although he plans to play towards Minnesota. — Brady Henderson

Stat to know: The Seahawks are 3-5 at house this season. A loss would mark their most house losses in a season since 2008, once they completed 2-6.

Daring prediction: Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will throw no less than two interceptions. Although the Vikings beat the Bears simply final week, Darnold struggled at occasions with accuracy and posted a negative-4% completion share over expectation, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats. — Walder

What’s at stake: Although the Vikings have clinched a playoff spot, the Seahawks at present maintain a 36.2% likelihood to make the postseason, per ESPN Analytics. Seattle’s odds enhance to 54.6% with win and reduce to 23.3% with a loss. Learn extra.

Accidents: Vikings | Seahawks

Fantasy X issue: Seahawks extensive receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba. He has been on hearth since Seattle’s bye week, recording 18 or extra fantasy factors in 4 of his previous 5 video games. He faces a Vikings protection that has given up essentially the most receiving yards per sport to extensive receivers. Count on Smith-Njigba to remain closely concerned and ship one other sturdy efficiency. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS towards groups with profitable information this season. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Vikings 24, Seahawks 17Moody’s decide: Vikings 24, Seahawks 13Walder’s decide: Seahawks 26, Vikings 20FPI prediction: MIN, 58.9% (by a mean of three.2 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Jefferson, Vikings pay tribute to Randy Moss amid most cancers battle … Geno ‘higher,’ plans to play regardless of knee damage

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -14 (46.5 O/U)

Patriots storyline to observe: The previous two occasions the Patriots and Payments have performed in Buffalo, the opening kickoff has been returned for a landing, which has by no means occurred between the identical groups on the identical venue in back-to-back seasons. This can even be the coldest sport for Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye, with the forecast calling for temperatures within the teenagers. “I am excited to put on lengthy sleeves for the primary time and embrace it,” he mentioned. — Mike Reiss

Payments storyline to observe: The Payments’ offense has an opportunity to turn into the primary group to attain 30-plus factors in 9 straight video games. The Patriots have given up 24.1 factors per sport this season (tenth worst). New England’s largest activity will likely be slowing MVP candidate Josh Allen, who can also turn into the primary quarterback prior to now 90 years to report a number of dashing touchdowns in three consecutive video games, per Elias Sports activities Bureau. — Alaina Getzenberg

Stat to know: Maye has a passing landing in six consecutive video games getting into Sunday. Another would tie Jim Plunkett (1971) for the longest streak by a rookie in franchise historical past.

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Daring prediction: Payments edge Von Miller will report no less than one sack. He has just one sack since getting back from suspension in Week 9, however he really boasts a 25% move rush win charge at edge in that span, which is third greatest on the place. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Payments are in a battle with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s possibilities enhance to 25% with a win and fall to three.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the opposite finish, the Patriots’ odds on the No. 1 decide climb to 30% with a loss. Learn extra.

Accidents: Patriots | Payments

Fantasy X issue: Payments extensive receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been focused usually by Allen, with seven or extra targets in eight video games and two with 10 or extra. Shakir has scored 16 or extra fantasy factors in consecutive video games. He ought to do properly towards the Patriots’ protection, particularly from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs just one different time prior to now 30 seasons — 2023 towards the Payments, once they misplaced by six. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Payments 33, Patriots 17Moody’s decide: Payments 41, Patriots 13Walder’s decide: Payments 27, Patriots 17FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by a mean of 13.9 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘did not imply something’ with playcalling comment … Allen reaches new heights at QB, retains Payments rolling

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to observe: Jacksonville has actually struggled stopping the large play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive performs (rushes of 15 or extra yards and receptions of 30 or extra yards). They’ve additionally given up 16 touchdowns on these performs, which is tied with Cleveland for essentially the most. That is a great matchup for the Raiders, who rank twenty second within the NFL with 44 offensive performs of 20 or extra yards. — Michael DiRocco

Raiders storyline to observe: With solely six catches within the Raiders’ previous two video games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth within the NFL with 90 receptions (he was main the league two weeks in the past). Regardless of the group’s quarterback points, he wants 32 extra yards to be the third rookie tight finish to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL historical past, becoming a member of Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He’ll face a Jaguars group that has the worst move protection within the league (264.3 yards per sport). — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out of their remaining three video games, they may tie their longest dropping streak in franchise historical past (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to finish the season.

Daring prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will publish its strongest move block win charge of the season (75%). Going towards the Raiders with out Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) ought to arrange the unit for a easy day and provides quarterback Mac Jones loads of time to make his reads. — Walder

What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically enhance or harm each groups’ possibilities on the No.1 decide (impartial of different outcomes). The Raiders’ odds on the choice enhance to 30% with a loss and reduce to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ possibilities climb to 11% with a loss and fall to lower than 1% with a win. Learn extra.

Accidents: Jaguars | Raiders

Fantasy X issue: Jaguars tight finish Brenton Unusual. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which implies Unusual takes over as Jacksonville’s beginning tight finish. He appeared strong earlier this yr when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders protection that provides up the fourth-most fantasy factors to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (misplaced 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They’re 3-1 ATS as favorites below coach Antonio Pierce. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15Moody’s decide: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13Walder’s decide: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by a mean of two.4 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgical procedure … Eerie temper looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job standing is questioned

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to observe: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on tempo for the third-lowest complete of his profession. Bettering on that mark might show troublesome towards a Niners protection that has been stingy with huge performs within the second a part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up solely 10 move performs of 20-plus yards (fewest within the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner

Dolphins storyline to observe: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) uncertain to play Sunday, the 49ers are offered with a troublesome matchup towards one of many NFL’s high run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed solely one in every of their previous eight opponents to crack 100 dashing yards (the Packers in Week 13). In truth, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 dashing yards per sport since dropping to Inexperienced Bay. San Francisco may need to rely extra on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout sport got here towards the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) within the NFL since getting back from a concussion in Week 10.

Daring prediction: 49ers tight finish George Kittle will report 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No group offers up the next share of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Dolphins will likely be eradicated from playoff rivalry with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday evening win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eradicated by seven different eventualities involving wins by different NFC groups. Learn extra.

Accidents: 49ers | Dolphins

Fantasy X issue: 49ers operating again Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to steer the backfield. He scored 9 fantasy factors in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have performed properly towards quarterbacks, no less than in fantasy, so this might be a sport by which San Francisco leans on its floor assault. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: 5 straight Dolphins house video games have gone over the overall. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20Moody’s decide: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21Walder’s decide: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by a mean of 1.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Supply: 49ers RB Guerendo probably out towards Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return house after hospital keep … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers must hold him

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -4.5 (48.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to observe: Contemplating what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this could not be higher. The Bucs’ run sport has dramatically improved from final within the league final season to now fourth general (144.4 yards per sport). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 dashing yards per sport (fourth worst within the league) and have surrendered 43 complete touchdowns as a protection (third most within the league). — Jenna Laine

Cowboys storyline to observe: If the Cowboys lose, it might be their seventh lack of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. Additionally they have an opportunity to match the franchise report for many house losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they received 16 straight regular-season video games at house from 2022 to 2023. To keep away from a loss, the protection must decelerate the No. 4 scoring offense within the league (28.8 factors per sport). — Todd Archer

Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first dropping season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first yr in 2020. They have not had a number of dropping seasons below a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.

Daring prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will surrender not more than 40 receiving yards as the closest defender, although he’ll presumably see no less than a few of extensive receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up simply 0.7 yards per protection snap, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats — much better than the 1.2 common for outdoor corners. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ possibilities to win the NFC South enhance to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys can be eradicated from playoff rivalry with a loss or a Washington win. Learn extra.

Accidents: Buccaneers | Cowboys

Fantasy X issue: Buccaneers extensive receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy factors mixed in his first eight video games after which 40.4 prior to now two. Apparently, he and Mike Evans ran the identical variety of routes in that span, with Evans barely main in targets. The Cowboys’ protection offers up the sixth-most receiving yards per sport to extensive receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as house underdogs this season. They’re 1-6 outright and ATS general at house. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20Moody’s decide: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21Walder’s decide: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by a mean of seven.5 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at proper time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 wage cap actually seem like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, largest hurdles

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: GB -14 (42.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to observe: The Saints have performed solely 18 video games at 32 levels or under at kickoff. They’ve received the previous three, together with a sport towards the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 levels. However New Orleans does not have Taysom Hill (knee), the main rusher from that final win, and won’t have Alvin Kamara, who’s coping with a groin damage. The Saints additionally might begin rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out due to a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell

Packers storyline to observe: It is a small pattern measurement, however Packers quarterback Jordan Love has proven no points in terms of enjoying in cold-weather video games. He is 2-0 as Inexperienced Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 levels or decrease, which helps because it might be snowing Monday. Relating to late-season contests general, coach Matt LaFleur additionally has the very best December/January report (23-5) within the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third within the NFL). The Saints’ protection is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest within the NFL).

Daring prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which implies Inexperienced Bay most likely will likely be out in entrance and operating the ball a lot. Davis has recorded a sort out on 21% of run performs he is on the sphere for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Packers can safe their spot because the third NFC North group within the playoffs via a number of eventualities. The simplest path is by profitable Sunday. In any other case, Inexperienced Bay will want a Falcons loss to pair with both a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Learn extra.

Accidents: Saints | Packers

Fantasy X issue: Packers operating again Josh Jacobs. Inexperienced Bay is a double-digit favourite, establishing Jacobs for an enormous workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy factors in 5 straight video games. The Saints’ protection offers up 23.7 fantasy factors per sport to operating backs, making him a robust play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time prior to now 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, once they received 9-0). They haven’t been no less than 13-point underdogs since 2005. Learn extra.

Kahler’s decide: Packers 30, Saints 17Moody’s decide: Packers 28, Saints 16Walder’s decide: Packers 27, Saints 10FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by a mean of 14.6 factors)

Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being minimize by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, return to Rattler in loss