Rob Demovsky
Kevin Seifert
Kevin Seifert
ESPN Workers Author
Kevin Seifert is a workers author who covers the Minnesota Vikings and the NFL at ESPN. Kevin has lined the NFL for over 20 years, becoming a member of ESPN in 2008. He was beforehand a beat reporter for the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Washington Occasions. He’s a graduate of the College of Virginia. You may comply with him through Twitter @SeifertESPN.
Earlier this week, Kevin O’Connell recommended that Sunday’s recreation between the Minnesota Vikings and Inexperienced Bay Packers could be a matchup between two “actually good groups.” O’Connell, the Vikings’ coach, was being modest.
Extra precisely, the competition will likely be a conflict between two of the NFL’s greatest groups.
That is solely the second NFC North/Central recreation for the reason that 1970 NFL merger when two opponents have had at the least 11 wins. And it serves as a reminder that both the Packers or Vikings will likely be one essentially the most certified third-place groups ever to advance to the playoffs.
The Vikings (13-2) and Packers (11-4) have mixed for twenty-four wins, the second most within the trendy historical past of the franchises. The Vikings stay in place to unseat the Detroit Lions (13-2) for the division title and the No. 1 total seed within the NFC by successful their last two regular-season video games, together with their finale towards the Lions.
The most effective the Packers can end is second within the NFC North, with a No. 5 seed, however they’re adequate to rank properly forward of the Vikings in ESPN’s Soccer Energy Index (FPI), which has the Packers because the third-best crew within the league and the Vikings at No. 7.
The NFL observed and flexed the sport right into a nationwide broadcast window final week with a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff, to which Fox Sports activities instantly assigned its high crew of Kevin Burkhart, Tom Brady and Erin Andrews. The groups will battle 13 weeks after their first matchup of the season, a 31-29 Vikings victory Sept. 29 at Lambeau Subject.
“I all the time say that I really like a lot of these video games,” Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson stated, “the video games that you really want, the video games which are thrilling for everybody to observe. I really like these sorts of video games. I really like these moments.”
To get ready for Sunday’s recreation at U.S. Financial institution Stadium, Packers reporter Rob Demovsky and Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert talk about the latest historical past of the rivalry, dimension up every crew’s season and sit up for Sunday — and past.
Seifert: Rob, I have been masking Packers-Vikings video games since 1999. I believe your first was in 1973, proper? Ha! And I am struggling to provide you with one other occasion when each groups had constructed up such sturdy seasons to create this sort of end-of-season spectacle.
I can bear in mind some large matchups with playoff implications. The 2012 regular-season finale involves thoughts, when the Vikings (9-6 on the time) wanted to win to qualify for the playoffs, which they did with a 37-34 victory. The Packers (11-4) had already gained the division. Then there was the 2004 recreation, additionally on the Metrodome, when the Vikings (8-6) may have clinched the NFC North with a win. As a substitute, the Packers (8-6) gained 34-31 and finally secured the NFC North with a 10-6 file.
However it’s actually arduous to determine a precise historic parallel. If the Packers end 1-1 or higher (they end with the Chicago Bears), the NFC North would be the third division in NFL historical past to have a third-place crew with a .700 successful proportion or higher. The NFL has performed at the least 16 regular-season video games since 1978. Over that interval, the one time these groups mixed to win greater than 24 video games was 1998, when the Vikings completed 15-1 and the Packers 11-5.
Something leap out to you, Rob?
Demovsky: To begin with, I’ve obtained solely two years on you. My first Packers-Vikings video games had been in 1997.
The 2012 recreation will all the time stick out in my thoughts as a result of that was the day when Adrian Peterson had an opportunity to interrupt Eric Dickerson’s single-season dashing file (2,105 yards). All Peterson did was put up 199 yards, however he fell 9 yards in need of historical past.
The 2009 video games, when Brett Favre donned a Vikings uniform and performed towards the Packers twice, had been unimaginable atmospheres and high-stress contests for the Packers, who needed to indicate they might win with out their longtime celebrity.
However let’s get with the instances. That is most likely essentially the most anticipated Packers-Vikings recreation since coach Matt LaFleur took over in Inexperienced Bay in 2019. He gained his first three conferences with the Vikings and is 6-5 total, however the Vikings have gained 5 of the previous eight contests within the collection, together with that Week 4 recreation this season at Lambeau.
There is a ton of strain on the Packers going into this recreation for one motive — properly, really, 5 causes. They have not overwhelmed any of the NFC’s high groups this season. They are a mixed 0-5 towards the Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), Lions and Vikings. Their greatest NFC win came visiting the Los Angeles Rams, however that was in Week 5 when the Rams had been depleted by accidents. Most likely their second-best victory came visiting the Houston Texans — and after Houston managed solely two factors of their Christmas Day trouncing by the hands of the Baltimore Ravens, even that does not look very spectacular.
What does the Vikings’ résumé appear to be?
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Seifert: From the surface, the Vikings have drawn comparisons to their 2022 crew that gained 11 one-score video games, completed with a 13-4 file and misplaced within the wild-card spherical of the playoffs. This crew appears to have stronger bona fides.
The Vikings have the NFL’s fifth-highest level differential (plus-120) and have trailed on a league-low 22% of their offensive snaps. Their solely losses are by two factors to the Lions in Week 7 after which 4 days later by 10 factors to the Rams.
Total, they’ve 4 wins over groups that at the moment have successful information: the Packers, Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks. They’re 1-2, nonetheless, towards opponents with quarterbacks who at the moment rank within the high 10 of NFL QBR, having misplaced to the Lions’ Jared Goff and the Rams’ Matthew Stafford whereas defeating the Packers’ Jordan Love.
Love accomplished 32 of 54 passes for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns towards them, however he additionally threw three interceptions.
Rob, the Packers are 9-2 since that recreation. What’s modified for Love and the crew?
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Demovsky: It may be simpler to checklist what hasn’t modified, as a result of the Packers are a a lot totally different crew than they had been in Week 4.
To start with, Love is wholesome now. Bear in mind, that Vikings recreation was his first one after struggling a knee harm within the season opener and lacking the subsequent two video games. With improved well being has come improved accuracy and decision-making. He has performed 5 straight video games with out an interception.
The Vikings battered him the final time, hitting him 10 instances, together with three sacks. He’s far more cell now and higher outfitted to flee strain. The Packers additionally dropped 4 passes in that recreation, in line with ESPN Analysis, although there have been extra that some analysts could have graded as drops.
A pair weeks after that recreation, the Packers dumped kicker Brayden Narveson, who missed a pair of subject targets towards the Vikings. They now have veteran Brandon McManus, who’s 43 of 44 on subject targets and further factors mixed since he joined the crew.
And eventually, LaFleur has remained as dedicated as he ever has to the run recreation, due to Josh Jacobs. The Packers rank sixth within the NFL in dashing makes an attempt this season. That stated, they could not actually run the ball towards the Vikings, as Jacobs had a season-low 9 carries that netted 51 yards. It is value questioning if they will have any higher luck this time, contemplating Minnesota ranks second towards the run (87.1 YPG).
And talking of Minnesota’s protection, nobody blitzes as a lot because the Vikings (38% blitz price). However Love has been significantly better towards the blitz of late. Prior to now six video games, he has the most effective QBR towards the blitz (97) after posting the third-lowest QBR towards the blitz within the first seven video games of the season.
Kevin, how do you assume the Vikings will method the Packers’ offense?
Seifert: It is value noting that the Vikings’ 38% blitz price represents a reasonably large vary of per recreation approaches. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has blitzed on 28% or fewer of dropbacks in 4 video games this season, whereas there have been 5 video games when the Vikings hit a price of 44%.
I would not be shocked to see Flores fall on the decrease finish of that vary this time towards the Packers. In the one repeat of video games this season, Flores blitzed the Bears 23.6% of the time of their first assembly and 36% of the time within the second.
Everybody must also perceive that Flores has had the benefit of a higher-performing quarterback, and offense, throughout the second half of the season. Sam Darnold has thrown 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the previous six video games, throughout which the crew has ranked No. 7 within the NFL with a mean of 29.2 factors.
As we wrap this up, one thing I have been fascinated by this week is the distinction between the primary and second video games between these groups in every of the earlier two seasons that O’Connell has coached the Vikings and LaFleur has coached the Packers. The Vikings gained the primary video games of the 2022 and 2023 seasons by a mixed margin of 30 factors after which misplaced the second video games by a mixed 47 factors. Even within the first recreation of 2024, the Vikings gained the primary half 28-7 whereas the Packers captured the second half 22-3.
Not one of the earlier video games had been shut, and on the floor, at the least, the sequence would counsel the Packers have been fairly good about making changes.
Will that sample proceed Sunday? The Packers are definitely enjoying properly sufficient to do it. A Vikings loss, mixed with a Lions win Monday night time on the San Francisco 49ers, will get rid of the Vikings’ probabilities of successful the division and provides the Packers an opportunity to maneuver up within the wild-card seedings.
Suppose it’ll occur, Rob? And do you want the way in which I requested you that with out committing to a prediction myself?
Demovsky: All I do know is the Packers are enjoying significantly better than they had been again in September and October, and so they know they want a signature win heading into the playoffs. When requested how badly they wanted one, Love did not hesitate.
“Badly,” he stated. “Clearly, we solely have another probability right here this week, so positively like I’ve talked about earlier than, we have to have the ability to go win these video games towards the actually good groups within the league and set ourselves up for the state of affairs we’ll be in for the playoffs — on the street enjoying good groups. So positively a very good take a look at this week.”
