All eyes shall be on Kansas Metropolis’s Patrick Mahomes and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy all through Tremendous Bowl LVIII, however which quarterback props are the very best ones to guess on?
Our betting consultants Erin Dolan, Eric Moody, Liz Loza, Daniel Dopp, Tyler Fulghum, Seth Walder, Kevin Pulsifer and Aaron Schatz clarify the QB props they like most, and Mackenzie Kraemer offers his prime QB prop betting nuggets.
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What are you anticipating from Patrick Mahomes, and is there a prop you want?
Schatz: I can discuss you into the Mahomes interception prop both approach. Through the common season, Mahomes had 14 interceptions in 16 video games (he sat out the season finale). That is virtually one per recreation, making over 0.5 interceptions a very good guess. San Francisco’s protection had a league-leading 22 interceptions within the common season, making that a fair higher guess. Nonetheless, Mahomes hasn’t thrown a choose within the playoffs. In keeping with FTN Knowledge, Mahomes hasn’t even had an interception-worthy throw in three postseason video games, so you may go both approach relying on what you consider. For those who consider within the bigger pattern dimension, go along with Mahomes over 0.5 interceptions. For those who consider in Mahomes’ playoff magic, go along with Mahomes below 0.5 interceptions.
Dolan: Mahomes OVER 4.5 speeding makes an attempt. Mahomes is a man that can take issues into his personal arms, as seen thus far this postseason. He ran the ball six occasions in every of the previous two video games towards the Ravens and Payments, averaging 4.7 carries. I might play his speeding makes an attempt moderately than speeding yards prop at 26.5 on condition that the 49ers have been profitable at stopping the run this season. Mahomes’ talent gamers haven’t regarded the way in which they’ve in seasons previous, and I anticipate this offense to lean on the run recreation. Mahomes should use his legs.
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Moody: Mahomes OVER 36.5 move makes an attempt. Mahomes and coach Andy Reid have relied closely on the passing recreation this season, and I anticipate that development to proceed towards the 49ers. Mahomes has surpassed this line in 12 of 19 video games this season. This additionally contains postseason video games towards the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens. This line has been exceeded by Mahomes in two of the three Tremendous Bowls he has performed in. On this yr’s postseason, he has a passer ranking of 100.7 with 718 yards and 4 touchdowns, so there is not any cause to draw back from the passing recreation now.
Loza: Mahomes UNDER 25.5 move completions. Mahomes averaged 23.5 completions over the common season, and he is been below this quantity in two of his three postseason performances. Whereas the 49ers have been extra susceptible by way of the move than on the bottom, San Francisco’s run protection has been leaky over the postseason, permitting over 130 speeding yards in back-to-back playoff efforts. I anticipate the Chiefs to reap the benefits of this latest growth. Even when Mahomes airs it out, hitting the over on 36.5 move makes an attempt (as Moody notes above), he is nonetheless unlikely to file 26 or extra completions, as he is managed a 69% completion share in the course of the playoffs (and the 49ers have allowed a completion share of 66% over the common season whereas additionally holding each Jordan Love and Jared Goff below the above line).
Walder: Mahomes OVER 26.5 speeding yards (-110). I am pondering alongside the identical traces as Erin right here, however I am choosing the yardage as a result of Mahomes is so environment friendly as a scrambler that he may go over this line in simply a few carries. I wish to stress: I’ve no mannequin — it is a pure gut-feel suggestion — however Mahomes ranked seventeenth in QBR on performs when he really passes the ball. One cause why the Chiefs are the place they’re is on different performs — sacks and scrambles — Mahomes ranks second. With a championship on the road, I might assume he acknowledges how helpful his legs will be on this recreation and makes probably the most of it.
Fulghum: I consider in Mahomes’ playoff magic that Schatz talked about above, so I will go along with Mahomes UNDER 0.5 INT (-115). Mahomes has thrown simply 7 interceptions in his playoff profession in 626 makes an attempt (1.1%). He hasn’t thrown an INT within the playoffs for the reason that Chiefs misplaced to the Bengals within the 2021 AFC Championship Sport. I belief Mahomes to maintain the soccer on this matchup.
What are you anticipating from Brock Purdy, and is there a prop you want?
Schatz: I will go a distinct route with a speeding prop as an alternative of a passing prop for Purdy. He had double-digit speeding yards solely 4 occasions in 16 regular-season video games (he sat out the season finale), however his capability to flee the pocket is an enormous a part of what makes him higher than the 49ers quarterbacks who got here earlier than him, and he is rushed for double-digit yardage in each playoff video games. In the meantime, the Chiefs protection has allowed over 50 yards to opposing quarterbacks in back-to-back video games and gave up 20.1 speeding yards per recreation to quarterbacks in the course of the common season. The Chiefs ranked sixth in strain fee from Week 10 by way of the playoffs. Extra strain means extra leaving the pocket, so I like Purdy over 12.5 speeding yards.
Moody: Purdy UNDER 21.5 passing completions. Throughout Tremendous Bowl LI towards the New England Patriots when Kyle Shanahan was the coach of the Atlanta Falcons, and in Tremendous Bowl LIV towards the Chiefs when he was with San Francisco, Shanahan’s playcalling was criticized as a result of he deserted the operating recreation in each. I do not consider historical past will repeat itself. Christian McCaffrey shall be closely relied upon towards the Chiefs to raised place Purdy for achievement. Purdy has gone below 21.5 completions in eight of his final 10 video games. The Chiefs protection may be an issue for him.
Tremendous Bowl LVIII betting: 49ers-Chiefs
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Dopp: Purdy OVER 0.5 interceptions. Whereas Purdy has been an incredible story, main the 49ers to a Tremendous Bowl in his second season, he is had some throwing inconsistencies the final couple of weeks that make me really feel slightly extra assured on this INT prop. First, there’s the attention take a look at. He is regarded off at occasions towards each the Packers and Lions within the playoffs. In these two video games, he had 17 off-target passes, probably the most over a two-game stretch this yr (10 vs. Packers, 7 vs. Lions). The Lions took benefit of that. They picked off one move and may’ve had a second from Kindle Vildor… however please do not remind me. Purdy hasn’t been 100% locked in from an accuracy or decision-making standpoint. He has left some performs on the sector, and I believe we see it once more towards the Chiefs.
Walder: Purdy UNDER 0.5 interceptions (-120). Dopp and I are at odds (pun supposed!) right here. I present an ever-so-slight quantity of worth on the below at this value, making the honest value -125. I am most likely holding out for a barely higher value given how shut I’m to the market. However the truth is the 49ers are favored — even when narrowly — and that helps the below. Quarterbacks which can be forward on the scoreboard are much less prone to throw picks.
Fulghum: Purdy UNDER 1.5 move TD (+100). The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have performed 20 video games this yr and solely 4 quarterbacks have thrown two or extra in a single recreation towards them. Care to guess? You by no means would have gotten this proper, however these 4 QBs are: Zach Wilson, Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Love. Many of the landing fairness on this offense resides at operating again with McCaffrey.
Pulsifer: Purdy UNDER 31.5 move makes an attempt (-115). If I can discover a prop that works no matter recreation script, I am all-in. The Chiefs have been simpler to run towards this season, and each groups prefer to play a method of ball management offense that limits opponent performs. I anticipate the sport to start out slowly, and whereas I do not anticipate Purdy to wrestle mightily, I do assume Shanahan will look to name a balanced recreation. In 18 video games this season, Purdy solely hit the over on this line 3 occasions (and one was solely 32 makes an attempt). Once they win, they’re uber-efficient. However even within the 4 49ers losses, Purdy solely hit 27, 30, 31 and 32 makes an attempt (a mean of 30).
High QB prop betting nuggets
1. Mahomes has gone below his passing yards prop in 13 of 19 video games this season.
2. Mahomes has gone below 1.5 passing touchdowns in six of his final eight begins, all at plus cash. The 49ers have held 12 of 19 opposing quarterbacks below 1.5 passing touchdowns.
3. Purdy has gone below his passing yards prop in every of his final 5 video games. He had gone over the quantity in 9 of his first 13 begins.
4. Purdy’s speeding prop is 12.5 after by no means being increased than 8.5 all season. He rushed for 14 yards towards the Packers (over 6.5) and 48 yards towards the Lions (over 7.5).
5. Out of 19 beginning quarterbacks to have posted passing yards props towards the Chiefs, solely 4 went over the quantity.