The Auburn Tigers (2-5) will try and put an finish to a brutal shedding stretch this weekend after they journey to Lexington, KY to face off towards the Kentucky Wildcats (3-4) Saturday night.
Auburn has misplaced four-straight SEC contests getting into its remaining street recreation of the marketing campaign. Whereas the Tigers are solely one among seven groups within the nation to build up at the very least 6.5 yards per play on the offensive finish whereas holding opponents to below 5.0 yards per snap on the defensive aspect, Hugh Freeze’s squad is simply 2-5 and getting ready to postseason elimination with 5 contests left to play. Kentucky alternatively is only one recreation higher, however has the chance to place itself nicely aligned for a bowl recreation with a victory over the Tigers this weekend.
Auburn’s incapacity to win shut soccer video games together with Kentucky’s home-field benefit and extra constant play have the Wildcats as slight, 2.5-point, favorites getting into this matchup based on BetMGM. ESPN FPI appears to be in agreeance with the sports activities books, because the Index provides Kentucky a 51.3% probability to tame the Tigers on Saturday.
Will a deeper dive into the story of the tape present the mistaken aspect is favored on Saturday?? As at all times, we’ll begin by analyzing the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback Payton Thorne has taken a step ahead in his second season on the Plains, though his play nonetheless leaves a lot to be desired, particularly relating to caring for the soccer and placing away video games. The senior has thrown for 1,414 yards this season. Accumulating 11 touchdowns by means of the air and one other 2 on the bottom. Sadly his 5 early season interceptions put a damper on whole of 6 throws to the opposition, casting a darkish cloud on what has in any other case been a good marketing campaign.
Kentucky starter Brock Vandagriff has not been superb both. The junior has thrown for less than 240-plus yards as soon as this season, discovering the top zone 6 occasions by means of the air whereas turning it over 4 occasions by means of 7 video games. Vandagriff has been efficient as a rusher, though his yardage whole of 126 does not point out it in any respect contemplating he is been sacked 15 occasions already this 12 months. Neither quarterback on this contest brings a lot “recreation altering” capacity to the desk, though Thorne will get the benefit on account of his slight edge in expertise and big-play capacity.
Auburn’s talent positions and offensive line additionally get the sting in Saturday’s recreation. Jarquez Hunter and the Auburn speeding assault has been phenomenal this season. Hunter is at present fifth within the SEC in rush yards regardless of receiving below 100 whole carries to this point, whereas the Auburn speeding assault as a gaggle has averaged just below 5 yards per try. Kentucky alternatively is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. And not using a clear star within the backfield and a dominant offensive line, the Wildcats offense has struggled to maneuver the ball on the bottom this season.
The hole is even wider by means of the air. Whereas Auburn star huge out KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Kentucky star Dane Key each have about 500 receiving yards by means of the air this season, Lambert-Smith has managed his whole whereas co-existing with Malcolm Simmons (289 yardds), Cam Coleman (259 yards), Rivaldo Fairweather (191 yards), Perry Thompson (123 yards), and Robert Lewis (113 yards). On the opposite aspect, solely two Wildcats have surpassed the century mark in receiving yardage behind Key this season, with Barion Brown (270 yards) being the lone receiver to take action. Auburn has a transparent edge on the offensive aspect of the ball on this recreation.
Defensively, the story flips dramatically. Kentucky has managed three victories this season nearly utterly due to a protection that leads the FBS in “havoc charge”. The Wildcats are coming off a season-worst 48-20 defeat towards Florida, however the protection has been an elite unit aside from that blip. Auburn’s protection has trended in a distinct route, because the Tigers have gotten higher each week, though DJ Durkin’s unit remains to be removed from the place it hopes to be by season’s finish. The defensive edge goes to the Wildcats, though the hole is nearer after final week.
In the long run, this recreation appears about as near a toss-up as an SEC matchup might be. Kentucky’s place as slight favorites appears to be the right one, however Auburn must be considered as extra of an in depth counterpart than underdog.
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This text initially appeared on Auburn Wire: Story of the Tape: Auburn vs. Kentucky
