Each the Netherlands and France made profitable, if not solely convincing, begins at Euro 2024.
On Friday, they face off in a heavyweight conflict that might go some solution to deciding who tops Group D.
Ronald Koeman’s Oranje had Wout Weghorst to thank as they fought again to beat Poland 2-1 of their opening match, and they’ll hope the potential absence of Kylian Mbappe provides them the higher hand in Leipzig.
Mbappe’s availability is “unsure” after he suffered a damaged nostril throughout Les Bleus’ nervy 1-0 victory over Austria, with the ahead set to be fitted with a protecting masks forward of a possible return.
How will the event favourites cope if Mbappe does miss out? Right here, we delve into the Opta information to preview Friday’s sport.
Des idées de masques ?
— Kylian Mbappé (@KMbappe) June 17, 2024
What’s anticipated?
Regardless of the query marks over Mbappe’s availability, France are favourites to make it two wins from two video games.
The Opta supercomputer provides them a 52.3 per cent probability of victory to the Netherlands’ 24.4 per cent, with 23.3 per cent of simulations ending stage.
This would be the fourth time the groups have confronted off on the Euros. France triumphed on penalties within the 1996 quarter-finals, however the Netherlands have since received two group-stage encounters, 3-2 in 2000 and 4-1 in 2008.
France have, nonetheless, received seven of their final eight matches towards the Oranje in all competitions, the exception being a 2-0 defeat within the UEFA Nations League in November 2018.
100 – France recorded their a centesimal win beneath Didier Deschamps this night (D30 L24), by far their greatest complete with the identical coach (41 with Michel Hidalgo and Raymond Domenech). Boss. #AUTFRA pic.twitter.com/eIYVhN8cc4
— OptaJean (@OptaJean) June 17, 2024
If current historical past is something to go by, we must always count on to get a victor. Solely 4 of the earlier 30 matches between the groups have resulted in a draw, with France posting 15 victories to the Netherlands’ 11.
Excluding penalty shoot-outs, the Oranje have solely misplaced one in all their final 17 main event matches (World Cup/Euros), taking place 2-0 to Czechia at Euro 2020 (12 wins, 4 attracts).
They misplaced 4 successive video games earlier than this run started – all three group-stage matches at Euro 2012 and the 2010 World Cup ultimate versus Spain.
France, in the meantime, might win their opening two video games at a European Championships for the fourth time. On every of the earlier events on which they completed that feat, they went on to achieve the ultimate (1984, 2000 and 2016).
If unsure, get Wout out
Standing at six-foot-six and nonetheless on Burnley’s books after mortgage spells with Besiktas, Manchester United and Hoffenheim, Weghorst is probably not the personification of Johan Cruyff’s ‘complete soccer’ beliefs.
Nevertheless, he has an actual knack for being in the fitting place on the proper time for his nationwide group.
Weghorst’s winner towards Poland got here along with his first contact after approaching as an 81st-minute substitute and was his fourth objective at a serious event (World Cup/Euros).
Three of these strikes have come as an alternative, essentially the most targets any Oranje participant has scored off the bench at tournaments.
He additionally has seven targets in his final 11 worldwide appearances general, tying Cody Gakpo and Calvin Stengs because the Netherlands’ main scorers in Euro 2024 qualifying with three.
He ranked eighth amongst all gamers for touches within the opposition field throughout qualifying (47), with six of these to beat him having performed greater than his 517 minutes.
Memphis Depay began up entrance towards Poland and flattered to deceive, failing to hit the goal with any of his 4 photographs. Whereas he’s more likely to hold his place in Koeman’s lineup on Friday, count on Weghorst to be launched earlier if Depay produces an identical show.
Didier Deschamps took a while to choose Arsenal’s William Saliba as the best centre-back accomplice for Dayot Upamecano, and the France duo could should be ready for an aerial bombardment. It is probably not complete soccer, however it might be efficient.
Poland 1-2 Netherlands
When unsure, get the large man on. Wout Weghorst scores simply two minutes after being subbed on to win the sport for the Netherlands.#POLNED #Euro2024 pic.twitter.com/Hg8zHdJVey
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) June 16, 2024
Mbappe’s absence an opportunity for Giroud?
France, in the meantime, are dealing with as much as the situation they by no means wished to ponder – having to manage with out Mbappe.
After colliding with the shoulder of Austria defender Kevin Danso on matchday one, Mbappe is a serious doubt for Friday’s sport. On Wednesday, the president of the France Soccer Federation, Philippe Diallo, stated it was “too quickly to know” if he’ll play once more at this event.
The Netherlands will definitely be respiration a sigh of reduction, having seen Mbappe rating six instances in 5 profession matches towards them, together with his first senior worldwide objective in August 2017. In opposition to no different nation has Actual Madrid’s latest Galactico netted extra typically.
Nevertheless, Mbappe did try 4 photographs with out scoring towards Austria, taking his complete variety of photographs with out scoring on the Euros to 18, essentially the most of any Frenchman since 1980.
Mbappe began centrally towards Austria however typically drifted out to the left flank, with Ousmane Dembele stationed vast on the fitting. Randal Kolo Muani might are available to play an identical position, or Olivier Giroud might present extra of a conventional point of interest.
Giroud’s 57 worldwide targets put him prime of Les Bleus’ all-time scoring charts, six away from Thierry Henry. Simply eight of these have come at main tournaments (one on the 2014 World Cup, three at Euro 2016, 4 on the 2022 World Cup), however the former Arsenal and Chelsea man has lengthy been a vital foil for his extra cellular team-mates.
France have received 71.9 per cent of their video games with Giroud within the beginning lineup beneath Deschamps (64/89), in comparison with 57.3 per cent with out him (43/75).
The 37-year-old, who has 16 headed targets for his nation, may even have been licking his lips on the sight of the Netherlands’ set-piece defending towards Poland, as Adam Buksa took benefit of some lax marking to move dwelling unopposed from a nook.
The final three targets conceded by Koeman’s group have now come from corners.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Netherlands – Cody Gakpo
Having netted the Netherlands’ equaliser of their opening match, Gakpo has scored on all 4 of his group-stage begins at main tournaments (World Cup/Euros).
In all competitions, the Liverpool ahead has six objective involvements in his final eight appearances on the worldwide stage (4 targets, two assists).
Solely Nathan Ake, with 4, bettered his three possibilities created towards Poland, whereas he additionally accomplished all 5 of his dribbles and received 15 of his complete of 18 duels contested – each team-high figures.
4 – Cody Gakpo has scored in every of his final 4 group stage video games on the European Championships and World Cup, changing into the third European participant to take action this century, after Cristiano Ronaldo and Álvaro Morata. Elite. #EURO2024 pic.twitter.com/Zjg1D5dA6E
— OptaJohan (@OptaJohan) June 16, 2024
France – Antoine Griezmann
With Mbappe more likely to miss out, France want one other of their attacking stars to step up.
For the reason that begin of Euro 2016, Griezmann has extra objective involvements at main tournaments (18 – 11 targets and 7 assists) than some other European participant (World Cup/Euros).
In opposition to Austria, no participant on the pitch bettered Griezmann’s two possibilities created, whereas he additionally tried as many crosses (six) as all of his team-mates mixed.
In Mbappe’s absence, he might get the liberty to roam into extra superior areas. He solely managed two touches within the opposition field towards Austria, although his two photographs have been value a game-high 0.84 anticipated targets (xG).