Portugal and France confirmed their locations within the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, however each the pre-tournament favourites had been removed from convincing in doing so.
Roberto Martinez had Diogo Costa to thank for his penalty heroics in opposition to Slovenia because the Porto goalkeeper spared Cristiano Ronaldo’s blushes in Frankfurt.
Ronaldo noticed his spot-kick saved by Jan Oblak in further time, decreasing the five-time Ballon d’Or winner to tears on the interval earlier than stepping as much as rating within the shootout.
Earlier that day, France had been aided by the knee of Jan Vertonghen as they squeezed previous Belgium in Dusseldorf, with their struggles in entrance of aim persevering with.
This would be the first assembly between the 2 sides since Euro 2020, by which three of the 4 objectives had been scored from the penalty spot in a 2-2 draw on the Puskas Area. Additionally it is, after all, a repeat of the Euro 2016 last, which Portugal gained 1-0 in Paris.
Many predict one other enthralling encounter in opposition to two European powerhouses, however primarily based on present type, we could be higher not anticipating a basic.
Right here, we use Opta knowledge to preview Friday’s conflict.
What’s anticipated?
France are predicted to emerge victorious in Hamburg, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 40.1% likelihood of profitable on the Volksparkstadion.
Portugal triumphed in 30.2% of the data-led simulations, with a draw forecast at 29.8%, which means further time and penalties are an actual chance.
This would be the fifth assembly between Portugal and France on the European Championships, with the Selecao unbeaten within the final two.
France gained the primary two conferences, happening to raise the trophy each occasions (3-2 in 1984, 2-1 in 2000), and Les Bleus know a win may ship them on their approach to silverware as soon as once more.
However whereas either side boast an array of attacking expertise, they’ve misfired in Germany, and each little benefit will possible be essential in a decent contest.
Portugal have now failed to attain of their final two matches. They’ve by no means failed to attain in three consecutive video games at a single main event earlier than.
Les Bleus have had the same drawback. Their three objectives at Euro 2024 to date have come from two personal objectives and a penalty from Kylian Mbappe.
Not since a run of 5 internationals between March and September 2013 have France seen their gamers fail to attain from open play in as many matches.
Nevertheless, their defence remained resolute of their time of want. France have an anticipated objectives in opposition to (xGA) tally of simply 2.63 at Euro 2024 – the bottom of any facet within the quarter-final, and second lowest on the event general after already-eliminated Serbia (2.57).
Didier Deschamps’ group have a formidable file over Friday’s opponents, having misplaced solely one in all their final 14 video games in opposition to Portugal (W11 D2), though that lone defeat got here within the last of Euro 2016.
However Martinez’s facet will fancy their possibilities of claiming a second European Championship crown ought to they triumph right here.
The earlier 4 groups to remove Les Bleus on the quarter-final stage of a serious event have gone on to win the trophy (Italy within the 1938 World Cup, Greece at Euro 2004, Spain at Euro 2012 and Germany on the 2014 World Cup).
Stick or twist with Ronaldo?
It’s a query that has emerged not for the primary time at Euro 2024, however Martinez will face his hardest determination but on Portugal’s talisman forward of the fixture in opposition to France.
Ronaldo endured a night to overlook in opposition to Slovenia, however assumed accountability for the Selecao’s first spot-kick within the penalty shootout, and was certain to not make the identical mistake twice.
Throughout that recreation in Frankfurt, Ronaldo had essentially the most pictures (eight), pictures on course (4), and touches within the opposition field (seven), of any participant. A medical edge is missing.
Certainly, Portugal’s captain has mustered 20 pictures at Euro 2024, essentially the most of any participant, however is but to seek out the again of the online.
Ronaldo has additionally tried 34 direct free-kick pictures for Portugal on the Euros, over twice as many as every other participant on file (since 1980 – Zinedine Zidane 15), but he’s nonetheless to attain one.
Whereas it might be troublesome to drop a participant who’s the all-time main goalscorer in worldwide soccer, Martinez may see this as a chance to clean up his ahead line.
Having recorded an xG complete of 1.97 in opposition to Slovenia, failing to take these alternatives in opposition to a superior opposition will certainly have devastating penalties.
Ronaldo nonetheless can’t rating.
Jan Oblak saves the Portugal penalty to depart Ronaldo in tears. pic.twitter.com/h2MJkHhFxK
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 1, 2024
Slim pickings for Deschamps
Deschamps tried to reignite Les Bleus’ attacking spark with a three-man strike drive in opposition to Belgium, however the pickings had been slim.
A trio of Mbappe, Marcus Thuram and Antoine Griezmann had been most well-liked, with Randal Kolo Muani launched late on, but it surely proved to be one other blunt show.
France had 19 pictures in opposition to the Belgians, however simply two had been on course, and finally it was a contact of fortune that noticed them via.
Between Mbappe (5), Thuram (4) and Griezmann (two), they managed only one shot on course, regardless of having 18 touches between them in Belgium’s field.
Defence, mockingly, given the attacking expertise at their disposal, has been France’s sturdy level. Nevertheless, their array of attacking choices should step up sooner quite than later.
France have stored a clear sheet in three of their 4 video games, essentially the most of any facet on the event, but they don’t seem to be being helped by the gamers in entrance of them.
Deschamps, nonetheless, has the chance to clean up his ahead line. The France coach faces a call much like Martinez, as to which of his gamers he can belief on the largest of phases.
5 – Groups which have benefited from extra personal objectives from their opponents on the European Championship:
5 – FRANCE4 – Spain3 – Netherlands