The brand new-look UEFA Nations League (UNL) group stage is coming to an in depth, with far more at stake than you would possibly suppose. The truth is, you would possibly say you want a level in soccer administration to completely perceive the machinations.
For the unique editions, the Nations League was principally about qualifying for the finals, plus promotion and relegation between the 4 ranges. However the 2024-25 format sees extra groups via to the knockout format, plus added promotion/relegation playoffs. And for the primary time the ultimate positions may have some affect on the qualifying draw for the subsequent FIFA World Cup.
With two rounds of video games to be performed, we take a look at who’s in competition and what all of it means within the race to achieve United States, Mexico and Canada in the summertime of 2026.
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How does the UEFA Nations League work?
There are 4 “divisions”: League A, B, C (with 4 teams of 4 nations) and D (with two teams of three). League A is the strongest and League D the weakest.
Qualifying for the quarterfinals and finals
In League A, the highest two groups in every of the 4 teams will undergo to two-legged quarterfinals, to be performed in March. The winners of those ties will participate within the finals, with one-legged semifinals and a ultimate in June.
Promotion and relegation
The international locations who win League B and C are routinely promoted to League A and B respectively. Those that end backside of League A and B are instantly relegated to League B and C.
There’s some excellent news for international locations who’re relegated from League A on this version. Being in League B for the 2026 UNL, they are going to be in a greater place to say a playoff for a spot for Euro 2028.
The winners of the 2 League D teams are promoted, whereas the 2 groups in League C who end backside with the worst report go down.
Playoffs
New for this version is promotion/relegation playoffs, even be to be held in March. Groups who’re third in League A will play two-legged ties towards second-placed nations from League B. Likewise, third in League B will face second in League C. The winners will play within the increased league.
The 2 nations who’re backside in League C with the most effective report will face a promotion/relegation playoff towards runners-up of League D.
Why does it matter for World Cup qualifying?
There is a handful of causes and, remarkably, it is extra sophisticated than the UEFA Nations League itself.
World Cup qualifying draw seeding
Groups will likely be drawn into 12 teams of 4 or 5 nations. Teams of 5 will start qualifying in March or June. Teams of 4 will not play any qualifiers till September. Why’s that? As a result of fixture slots have to be free for international locations to play these UNL playoffs and knockout ties.
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The eight groups within the UNL quarterfinals will all want free dates in March, with the 4 finalists additionally requiring June to be empty. Because the World Cup qualifying draw is on Dec. 13, FIFA will not know who wants each March and June free. FIFA has subsequently given UEFA permission to place all eight UNL quarterfinalists in Pot 1 of the World Cup draw. In case you end within the prime two of UNL League A, you are seeded and will get a extra beneficial path to the subsequent World Cup.
Pot 1 may have 12 nations, and is accomplished by the 4 international locations with the most effective FIFA World Rating who aren’t but seeded. England, who’re in League B for this version of the UNL, are successfully assured one slot as they’re ranked fourth on the earth. Because it stands now, Belgium, Switzerland and Austria would take the opposite three rating slots.
For all different pots, locations are allotted purely by FIFA World Rating, and outcomes this week may affect that. For example, Turkey may take a slot in Pot 1, whereas Scotland and Norway are in Pot 3 however may elevate themselves into Pot 2 with good outcomes.
Provisional World Cup draw pots (Nov. 13)
POT 1POT 2POT 3POT 4POT 5GermanyAustriaNorwayIsraelLithuaniaSpainUkraineScotlandBulgariaMoldovaItalyTurkeySloveniaLuxembourgMaltaPortugalSwedenRepublic of IrelandBelarusAndorraFranceWalesAlbaniaArmeniaGibraltarDenmarkPolandFinlandKosovoLiechtensteinCroatiaHungaryGeorgiaKazakhstanSan MarinoNetherlandsSerbiaNorth MacedoniaAzerbaijanEnglandSlovakiaIcelandEstoniaBelgiumGreeceNorthern IrelandCyprusSwitzerlandRomaniaBosnia and HerzegovinaLatviaDenmarkCzechiaMontenegroFaroe IslandsPots will change with outcomes this week
However wait… Relying on what number of groups have to play promotion and relegation playoffs, FIFA could must juggle the pots barely. For example, if there are too many groups in Pot 3 who have to have March free, then a swap with Pot 2 or 4 is perhaps wanted. That is in all probability a difficulty for one more day…
Yet one more complication? Because the UNL playoffs do not happen till March, eight of the 12 World Cup teams will not know their full lineup till then. 4 of the teams with 4 groups will get “winners of playoff tie,” as they have to be free for March and June. 4 others get “losers of playoff tie.” Solely 4 teams will likely be full as of Dec. 13.
Playoff locations for UNL group winners
The 12 winners of the UEFA World Cup qualifying teams will go direct to the World Cup. The 12 runners-up enter playoffs.
There are additionally 4 playoff slots for the most effective UNL group winners who don’t end within the prime two of a World Cup group. What does that imply? Nicely, the UNL League A winners are impossible to want a World Cup playoff, which implies successful a League B group will nearly actually offer you a playoff, and being among the finest League C group winners provides an important probability.
There are 16 groups within the playoffs, creating 4 paths with one-legged semifinals and a ultimate, to be performed in March 2026.
UEFA and FIFA actually know the best way to make this sophisticated.
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What’s at stake within the Nations League this week
This part will likely be up to date via the ultimate matches till the top of the group section on Nov. 19
LEAGUE A1
Portugal (10 factors) want one level to safe a spot within the quarterfinals, whereas Scotland (1) face an uphill wrestle to keep away from relegation to League B.
The true battle is for second and third, with Croatia (7) forward of Poland (4).
Croatia have the superior head-to-head report so can ebook a top-two slot with a attract Scotland on Friday. That may possible depart Poland going through a relegation playoff, although they might but be overtaken by Scotland on the ultimate day when the 2 international locations meet in Warsaw.
LEAGUE A2
Italy (10) and France (9) are clear in first and second and, whereas Belgium (4) nonetheless have a mathematical probability, the quarterfinals spots would possibly already be sealed. Belgium host Italy in Brussels on Thursday and should win to maintain their hopes alive.
It appears to be like like Belgium will face a relegation playoff, as they sit 4 factors forward of Israel (0), who’ve misplaced all 4 matches.
LEAGUE A3
Germany (10) have already booked a slot within the quarterfinals, whereas Bosnia and Herzegovina (1) should win each of their matches to keep away from relegation.
Netherlands (5) go into the final week in second however are solely forward of Hungary (5) on objective distinction. The 2 groups meet in Amsterdam on Saturday, and if there is a winner they are going to be via to the final eight.
LEAGUE A4
Spain (10) have additionally secured a spot within the prime two.
Denmark (7) are in an excellent place and will likely be via in the event that they higher Serbia’s outcome on Friday. If not, it’ll come right down to the assembly between the 2 groups in Leskovac on Monday.
One of the best bottom-of-the-group Switzerland (1) can hope for is to climb above Serbia into the relegation playoff place. They face one another in Zürich on Friday, and the Swiss should win to have any probability of climbing off the foot.
LEAGUE B1
The group is totally up within the air, with the 4 nations separated by three factors.
Czechia (7) sit prime and have promotion in their very own fingers however sit only one level forward of Georgia (6) and Albania (6). Ukraine (4) are backside but very a lot inside touching distance of at the least a promotion playoff.
Albania have two residence video games, which supplies them a bonus, whereas Ukraine have all of it to do with two away matches. Czechia can seal promotion on Saturday in the event that they win in Albania and Georgia lose at residence to Ukraine.
LEAGUE B2
The group could successfully be selected Thursday when Greece (12) tackle England (9) in Athens.
Greece received 2-1 at Wembley in October, so know they are going to be promoted with a win or a draw. Nevertheless, if England win by 2+ objectives then victory at residence to Republic of Eire (3) on Sunday would safe first place.
If England win by one objective, the nations can be stage on factors and head-to-head, solely separated by a objective distinction of two — that means the scorelines on the ultimate day can be decisive.
Finland (0) journey to Eire on Thursday and should win to keep away from automated relegation.
LEAGUE B3
One other group which is inconceivable to name, with nothing to separate Norway (7), Austria (7) and Slovenia (7).
Norway and Austria could possibly be within the strongest place, as they each must play rock-bottom Kazakhstan (1). The automated promotion place can’t be confirmed on Thursday, however Kazakhstan’s relegation will likely be in the event that they fail to win at residence to Austria.
LEAGUE B4
Turkey (10) and Wales (8) are in competitors to go straight as much as League A and meet in Kayseri on Saturday. Turkey will likely be promoted, and safe a possible World Cup playoff, if they will get a house victory.
Iceland (4) have an outdoor probability of second, if Wales are defeated, however they must win in Montenegro (0) of their first recreation after which in Cardiff on Tuesday — which might dump Wales into the relegation playoff. Montenegro should win at residence to Turkey to face any probability of avoiding on the spot relegation.
LEAGUE C1
Sweden (10) are above Slovakia (10) on objective distinction with the 2 international locations assembly in Solna on Saturday. If there is a winner in that recreation, it’ll include automated promotion. If the sport is a draw, Slovakia could require an enormous win over Estonia on Tuesday to complete prime due to inferior objective distinction.
Azerbaijan (0) host Estonia (3) on Saturday and should win to keep away from being final. Having zero factors, Azerbaijan additionally face being routinely relegated to League D.
LEAGUE C2
Romania (12) have the most effective report in League C, that means they’ve a superb opportunity of a World Cup playoff via the UNL — if they will maintain on to prime spot. They host Kosovo (9) on Friday, and a draw will safe it. Kosovo misplaced 3-0 at residence to Romania, so would wish an enormous win in Bucharest to reverse the head-to-head report. The chances are that Kosovo will end second even when they produce a shock.
Lithuania (0) should win in Cyprus (3) to have any probability of avoiding backside spot. Like Azerbaijan, Lithuania face automated relegation having misplaced each match.
LEAGUE C3
An in depth group headed by Northern Eire (7), adopted by Belarus (6) and Bulgaria (5). Northern Eire host Belarus on Friday and will likely be promoted with a victory if Bulgaria fail to win in Luxembourg (2).
If Luxembourg can get a victory, they’ve an actual probability of avoiding final place and could not be routinely relegated.
LEAGUE C4
North Macedonia (10) are all however assured of promotion, and their report may but get them a path to the World Cup playoffs. They want one level to safe first place.
The true battle is for the opposite three locations between Armenia (4), Latvia (4) and Faroe Islands (3). The Faroes have two away matches, which places them at a definite drawback, however they don’t seem to be going through a practical risk of automated relegation.
LEAGUE D1
Gibraltar (5) will likely be promoted with a win or attract San Marino (3) on Friday.
Liechtenstein (2) may have second to play for once they tackle San Marino on Monday, however they can’t win the group.
LEAGUE D2
Moldova (6) lead Malta (6) on head-to-head objective distinction. Moldova will likely be promoted in the event that they win in Andorra (0) on Saturday, which is able to consign Malta to a playoff.
