MEMPHIS, Tenn. — I flew right here for Nikola Jokić vs. Ja Morant.
Ha! Not so quick.
As a substitute, what I acquired was an object lesson within the realities of the NBA season. For a lot of groups, on many nights, it’s extra about surviving the grind and having the ability to win even with out your stars that defines a season’s success or failure.
Whereas the schedule generally is a carnival joyride when the whole lot is clicking and all of your stars are wholesome (simply ask Cleveland), the truth of the present NBA is normally fairly totally different. Comparatively few gamers make it via the season unscathed, and the extra that’s demanded of them, the much less probably they’re to glide via 82 video games with out damage. Even within the first weeks of the season, we’ve already seen a number of stars shelved.
Which takes us to Sunday’s recreation between Memphis and Denver, a 105-90 wire-to-wire Grizzlies win that was achieved with super ease regardless of Morant, Marcus Good and GG Jackson all being out and Zach Edey leaving within the second half with what gave the impression to be a sprained ankle.
The Nuggets, after all, have been with out three-time MVP Nikola Jokić and star ahead Aaron Gordon, however the final two video games in Jokić’s absence have underscored a grim actuality for the Nuggets. They’ve at all times struggled with out Jokić, however this 12 months the numbers are particularly appalling.
First, the excellent news: Denver has outscored opponents by 11.3 factors per 100 possessions with Jokić on the court docket — championship-contending dominance!
Alas, when he’s out, the Nuggets have been outscored by a borderline-hilarious 21.5 factors per 100. It’s unhealthy sufficient that Sunday’s loss in Memphis, and Friday’s humiliating defeat in New Orleans to random create-a-players in Pelicans uniforms, truly improved Denver’s stats within the non-Jokić minutes.
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With out Nikola Jokić, the Nuggets have seemed alarmingly helpless
The Grizzlies can relate: A 12 months in the past, they have been in the identical boat. Morant, Steven Adams and Good have been injured early within the season, and Memphis cratered virtually instantly. The Grizzlies went 6-3 within the 9 video games Morant performed; their 21-52 report within the others was a little bit of an issue.
It wasn’t arduous to see why they struggled: Their depth wasn’t adequate. Memphis ended up with 1,000-plus-minute seasons from the likes of Ziaire Williams and David Roddy, began Bismack Biyombo at heart for 27 video games, and used developmental minutes on a number of different younger gamers.
A few of that funding has paid off handsomely this season — Scotty Pippen Jr. has held down the fort as the start line guard whereas Morant is out, ahead Santi Aldama is having a profession 12 months off the bench, and Jake LaRavia has belatedly emerged as a rotation-caliber participant in his fourth season. A whole lot of it, nonetheless, went to fringe expertise that can by no means crack an NBA rotation.
The outcomes this 12 months couldn’t be extra totally different. Memphis’s damage burden has arguably been simply as extreme because it was firstly of final season, but the Grizzlies are 8-6 with a top-5 web ranking and a top-5 protection.
The Grizzlies are actually 3-3 within the six video games Morant has missed, and not one of the losses have been by greater than 5 factors. That got here regardless of all these Morant absences being intertwined with different key accidents — Desmond Bane has solely performed six video games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has missed two, Good has missed six and Luke Kennard seven.
In stark distinction to 2023-24, the Grizzlies’ bench has stored them afloat. Pippen and Jay Huff have been initially signed as two-ways however have performed so effectively that they’ve been promoted to roster contracts. Second-round decide Jaylen Wells, a deep reduce for draft nerds who had nothing higher to do on a late Saturday night time than watch Washington State, has began eight video games and is averaging double figures. LaRavia and Aldama have fortified a ahead rotation that seemed overmatched within the non-Jackson minutes a 12 months in the past — with Aldama taking part in some shifts as a 3 in an enormous frontcourt.
In actual fact, the highest 4 Grizzlies in minutes this 12 months are Aldama, Wells, Pippen and LaRavia. If anyone instructed you that in August you’ll have figured the Grizzlies have been 4-10 proper now (or worse), not thriving in a Western Convention that appears to be as cutthroat as ever.
If the Grizzlies are the instance from tonight, in addition they underscore the bigger instance of one of many 12 months’s greatest success tales in Golden State. The Warriors constructed up the again finish of their roster to the purpose that they mainly have a 12-man rotation, with Steve Kerr rotating numerous gamers out and in to maintain everybody contemporary and overwhelm opponents with high quality. It’s labored effectively sufficient that the Warriors are outscoring opponents by 6.8 factors per 100 possessions with Curry off the court docket.
Equally, the Grizzlies attempt to benefit from their superior bench partially by taking part in wildly quick — even within the non-Morant minutes, and even whereas typically taking part in a behemoth plodder from central casting in Edey. The Grizzlies entered Sunday second in tempo and second in fast-break factors.
Memphis’s recreation towards Golden State on Friday, then, ended up being one of many 12 months’s most fascinating … and never simply because the Grizzlies spent the fourth quarter frantically reducing into the purpose differential for NBA Cup functions whereas the Warriors stored Curry on an train bike.
No, the actual enjoyable was within the opening half, when the 2 groups mixed to make use of 23 gamers within the first two quarters of a aggressive recreation with no accidents or foul bother conditions.
The Grizzlies used 11 gamers for no less than seven minutes, with none taking part in greater than Jackson’s 14:56. The Warriors, for his or her half, performed a dozen gamers no less than 4 minutes, and solely Curry performed greater than quarter-hour.
Within the third quarter, Memphis went even additional, executing the near-impossible feat of taking part in 12 gamers no less than three minutes in the identical quarter with out rubbish time. (OK, Huff technically performed 2:51.)
Positive, Memphis was scrambling a bit as a result of the sport was going off the rails, however you get the concept: Each groups have been extremely comfy taking part in depth items for large chunks of the sport, and have benefited vastly from their depth early within the season. So far as season-management approaches go, you would possibly name it the “Thibodeaun’t Technique.”
And in case you have the gamers for it, it really works. There’s the rub, after all: Not everybody can have a dozen rotation-caliber gamers. It takes a little bit of front-office sorcery to tug this off within the wage cap period, and we should always tip our hats to each the Grizzlies and Warriors for the work they did this offseason.
It’s nonetheless a stars’ league in April and Could, after all, when a few of these depth items will ultimately be relegated to DNPs. The common season, nonetheless, is a unique story. The Grizzlies and Warriors are displaying how these secondary gamers can elevate groups even when their A-list expertise isn’t overwhelming (or wholesome).
It wasn’t fairly what I flew right here to expertise, nevertheless it was a enjoyable reminder that the 82-game grind typically comes all the way down to roster constructing as a lot as star expertise. Now please, basketball gods, lemme see Ja vs. Joker subsequent time I make this journey.
Cup Geekery: Early group phases and what’s subsequent
What do the Atlanta Hawks, Portland Path Blazers and Detroit Pistons all have in frequent? They’re in first place of their NBA Cup teams!
That’s proper, it’s NBA Cup season! As an fanatic for this newest piece of the league’s ongoing mission to make folks care in regards to the common season, I have to report that the primary week of video games noticed groups competing to the buzzer in blowouts for the purpose differential tiebreaker, and barely toned-down court docket designs from final 12 months nonetheless indicating that one thing very totally different was happening. (One observe on these courts: I’m instructed the league dictated much more of the design this time round and the groups had pretty restricted enter.)
The most important information from video games final Tuesday and Friday might be in East Group C, the place the Hawks unexpectedly discover themselves within the driver’s seat of a bunch that features the mighty Cavs and Celtics. If the Hawks beat Cleveland at house on Nov. 29 they may virtually actually win the group; even when they lose, there are believable situations the place they may very well be group champs.
East Group A already appears headed towards a decider on Nov. 29 between Orlando and New York; each received their first two video games and have very winnable third contests earlier than this showdown at Madison Sq. Backyard.
As for the West, we could discuss Group C, “The Group of Demise,” with Golden State, Denver, Memphis, New Orleans and Dallas? The Warriors might put this one to mattress early — night time, night time! — in the event that they beat the Pelicans in New Orleans this coming Friday. That consequence, mixed with a Denver loss in Memphis on Tuesday (with the Nuggets presumably being with out Jokić once more) would clinch the group for Golden State.
This coming week, the largest recreation is Tuesday’s tilt between Cleveland and Boston. The Cavs are undefeated and trying to keep even with Atlanta atop Group C, whereas world champion Boston would mainly be eradicated with a loss. A Boston win creates the prospect for “Tiebreaker Mayhem!” on the final day which may nonetheless remove one or each these groups.
Additionally, dare I describe Friday’s Blazers-Rockets contest as a “large recreation?” The winner could be atop West Group B at 2-0, and each different group would have no less than one loss. Portland, sneakily, is 6-8 now.
On the draw back, pour one out for the Raptors and Sixers. With two losses already, they’re successfully eradicated (although not mathematically, for the true nerds of unlikely situations and peculiar tiebreakers). On Tuesday, now we have “elimination” matches of 4 different one-loss groups, when the Nets play the Hornets and the Nuggets play the Grizzlies.
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Rookie of the Week: Dalton Knecht, SG, Lakers
(This part received’t essentially profile the greatest rookie of the week. Simply the one I’ve been watching.)
The seventeenth decide within the draft, Knecht was pressed into service as a starter in two video games this weekend and scored 14 and 27 factors in a pair of Laker wins. That got here on the heels of his 5-of-5 efficiency from 3 in an in depth win over Memphis. For the week he scored 60 factors in 91 minutes, making 12 of his 19 3-point makes an attempt, and solely had one turnover within the three contests. Moreover, his 27 in New Orleans on Saturday was probably the distinction between a win and a depressing defeat, as the remainder of the Lakers had no juice on a back-to-back towards the injury-riddled Pelicans’ skeleton crew.
At 40.4 % from 3 on the 12 months, Knecht is displaying that the capturing package deal he flashed at Tennessee appears very actual. He has a fast, excessive launch that permits him to get his shot away towards comparatively shut contests. Whereas he has a comparatively low arc for an elite shooter, the longer distance of the NBA shot hasn’t appeared to have an effect on him up to now.
In actual fact, it’s not the share that stands out as a lot as the amount (10.4 3-point makes an attempt per 100 possessions). Knecht requires little or no house to get his shot away. In consequence, he can get away seems to be like this one within the clip under comparatively simply (even when this one missed). In case you aren’t proper in his grille on the catch, he’s going up with it:
Of late, the Lakers appear to be pushing simply how a lot they’ll get from his motion capturing. The play above was a pindown they ran for him on the primary play of the sport in New Orleans, and so they ran an ATO for him to shoot a 3 off a display early within the Memphis recreation. They’ve additionally leaned more durable into lineups with Knecht, despite the fact that his protection is … ummm … let’s simply say it’s much less superior than his offense.
Nevertheless, Knecht’s presence within the beginning group evens out a Laker lineup that’s brief on capturing, particularly with D’Angelo Russell coming off the bench. So long as Austin Reaves and LeBron James can break up the purpose guard duties, the Lakers can get by with no true level guard within the beginning group.
Knecht hasn’t completed as a lot off the dribble but, however there’s some promise there. He scored that means typically at Tennessee and has the athletic pop to get his personal shot — he already has six dunks this 12 months (and can certainly get a hanging-on-the-rim tech earlier than the 12 months is out), together with this DHO rope-a-dope towards New Orleans:
It’s straightforward to get carried away when a rookie has a giant recreation, and certainly Knecht will hit extra peaks and valleys because the 12 months goes on. However the Lakers desperately wanted to hit on a depth piece, particularly one on a managed contract, and capturing was their most obtrusive want coming into the 12 months. It appears Knecht would possibly have the ability to verify all these containers.
Prospect of the Week: Cooper Flagg, 6-9 freshman, PF, Duke
(This part received’t essentially profile the greatest prospect of the week. Simply the one I’ve been watching.)
Together with two or three others who work within the NBA, I went to Atlanta’s State Farm Area on Tuesday to observe Flagg and Duke tackle Kentucky within the Champions Traditional. (The primary recreation, Kansas vs. Michigan State, was a high-quality school basketball recreation however fairly gentle on scouting implications.)
Whereas different Duke gamers will warrant heavy consideration because the 12 months goes on (fellow freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach are each potential lottery picks in their very own proper), on this night time everybody was watching Flagg.
The probably prime decide within the 2025 draft hardly dissatisfied with 26 factors and 11 rebounds, however scouts got here away with a couple of warts to choose at in Duke’s 77-72 loss to Kentucky. Flagg misplaced his dribble and turned the ball over on Duke’s closing two possessions, each of which got here after errrbody-outta-my-way isos that had him staring down the entire Kentucky protection.
Cooper Flagg turned the ball over two possessions in a row late in regulation.
No. 19 Kentucky takes down No. 6 Duke 77-72‼️ pic.twitter.com/11fiwuov61
— ESPN (@espn) November 13, 2024
What stands out in regards to the two performs are two issues that have been fairly constant all through the night time. First, Flagg’s jumper isn’t fairly constant sufficient to bait defenders into promoting out onto the perimeter towards him, which leaves him driving towards defenses which might be already retreating and takes away some lanes for simpler buckets. Second, in a associated story, he typically finally ends up turning his again (like on the performs above) and spinning to attempt to get to the shot he desires relatively than cleanly beating a defender in a straight line, one thing I solely recall him doing twice the entire recreation.
After all, we’re in deep nit-picking mode right here, as a result of we’re evaluating Flagg as the highest decide in a robust draft. Flagg provided loads of positives that will make him an prompt NBA starter, scoring on an alley-oop on the sport’s first play, high-pointing rebounds in visitors, flying up and down the court docket in transition and displaying a complicated deal with and passing potential for a participant of his measurement. And it’s not just like the jumper was atrocious; he made a number of pull-ups and went 7 of 9 from the road.
Moreover, this has been recognized about Flagg for a while: Each report on him is that he’s extra of a “circulate of the sport” participant than an on-ball shot-creation specialist.
Even so, a few of his on-ball reps popped. Take a look at this pick-and-roll learn, which was most likely his most spectacular play of the day, zipping a cross into a good window towards a late swap for a layup:
Flagg can have extra assessments, clearly, together with an upcoming one at Arizona on Friday that, based mostly on my casual surveying, it appears a giant chunk of the NBA might be attending. As a primary look, nonetheless, the largest takeaway is that he seemed the half as a No. 1 decide. It could take a reasonably spectacular show of expertise for anyone to knock Flagg from that perch.
(Photograph of Stephen Curry: Thearon W. Henderson/ Getty Pictures)
