One other Tremendous Bowl trophy hasn’t suppressed the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ starvation for continued excellence.
For Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, there’s nonetheless a lot extra to show.
Neither can be missing motivation when the 2 AFC powerhouses renew acquaintances on NBC in a single whopper of an NFL Kickoff Sport, which formally begins the Chiefs’ quest for an unprecedented Tremendous Bowl title three-peat and gives the Ravens a fast alternative to avenge fairly presumably essentially the most bitter defeat in franchise historical past.
Baltimore appeared primed to finish Kansas Metropolis’s run of dominance after claiming the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed and getting final season’s convention championship sport on its residence turf. However a masterful defensive sport plan and yet one more classic postseason efficiency from each Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce enabled the unflappable Chiefs to reign supreme as soon as once more, and go away Jackson with the undesirable distinction of being the one two-time league MVP quarterback who’s by no means reached a Tremendous Bowl.
After following up that 17-10 win in Baltimore by squeaking by the San Francisco 49ers straight away extra time traditional to safe the franchise’s third Lombardi Trophy in 5 years, the Chiefs are brazenly embracing the problem of trying to develop into the primary group ever to win three consecutive Tremendous Bowls.
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And with nearly all the band again collectively, the Chiefs simply may be capable to make that dream come true. Whereas lockdown cornerback L’Jarius Sneed was traded for cap-compliance causes, the remainder of a core led by Mahomes, Kelce and game-wrecking defensive deal with Chris Jones stays intact. Identical goes for a confirmed teaching workers headed by a pair of all-time-great in-game technicians in Andy Reid and Jackson’s greatest nemesis through the years, defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Our projection mannequin agrees with the somewhat apparent suggestion that the Chiefs are one of the best bets to win all of it once more. It offers Kansas Metropolis a 13.1% likelihood of seizing one other championship getting into this NFL season, with solely the 49ers possessing a better chance.
Baltimore enters 2024 with just a few extra query marks, with the offensive line fielding three new and inexperienced starters and the protection changing just a few key contributors from final season’s fearsome unit.
Essentially the most important loss might have come on the sidelines, nonetheless, with defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald now the top coach of the Seattle Seahawks after skillfully directing a bunch that led the NFL in sacks (60), takeaways (31, tied for first) and scoring protection (16.5 factors allowed per sport) whereas ending fourth in our EVE (effectivity vs. anticipated) scores final season.
Taking Macdonald’s place can be former understudy Zach Orr, a 32-year-old former Ravens linebacker who’ll instantly step into a real coming-of-age second when he matches wits with a future Corridor of Fame coach and quarterback with 100 million or so folks watching his each transfer.
How’s that for a primary project as an NFL play-caller?
The Ravens do nonetheless have unquestionably one of the best participant of the 2023 common season in Jackson, and that alone makes them one of the formidable obstacles on the Chiefs’ three-peat path. Baltimore has the most important projected win complete (11.0) within the AFC, in response to our mannequin, and the third-highest likelihood of successful the Tremendous Bowl at 11.3%.
Now, we are able to’t let you know for certain whether or not any A-list celebrities can be patrolling a luxurious suite above GEHA Subject at Arrowhead Stadium come Thursday evening, however we are able to no less than provide some issues to maintain an eye fixed out for on this marquee matchup between two of the NFL’s premier groups – which additionally occur to be two of the league’s finest in season openers lately.
BEST NFL WEEK 1 RECORDS SINCE 2016
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (7-1)
Baltimore Ravens (7-1)
Philadelphia Eagles (7-1)
Las Vegas Raiders (6-2)
Los Angeles Rams (6-2)
The Chiefs did come up quick in final yr’s Kickoff Sport towards a Detroit Lions group that turned out to be fairly darned good, however had gained eight consecutive openers previous to that defeat. The Ravens are a formidable 12-4 in Week 1 video games throughout John Harbaugh’s lengthy and profitable teaching tenure.
That is the top-ranked sport on the Week 1 slate, per SmartRatings. The joy mannequin is powered by complicated algorithms which can be predicated upon six main variables: tempo, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
Can Lamar Jackson Lastly Remedy KC’s Protection?
Although Jackson has been a matchup nightmare for almost each opponent over the course of his sensible profession, the Chiefs are one which has been the kryptonite to the Ravens’ Superman.
Counting the 2023 AFC championship sport, Jackson has confronted Kansas Metropolis 4 instances since Spagnuolo took over as defensive coordinator in 2019. Three of these video games had been Baltimore losses, and its franchise quarterback’s composite numbers over these outings pale compared to what he’s achieved to the remainder of the league.
Jackson’s struggles towards Kansas Metropolis had been most pronounced again in January, when the Chiefs efficiently made the 2023 NFL MVP uncomfortable all afternoon lengthy by routinely shutting down passing lanes and pressuring him into fast choices and too many off-target throws.
He completed the day with a lackluster 54.1% completion fee (58.8% adjusted) with lower than 62% of his adjusted makes an attempt deemed catchable.
Whereas clearly not a efficiency as much as his lofty requirements, it’s a bit unfair to place the Ravens’ offensive issues within the AFC title sport squarely on Jackson, as a better breakdown reveals he didn’t get a complete lot of assist from both his teammates or a puzzling sport plan by coordinator Todd Monken that’s been rightfully known as into query.
Jackson threw to an open man on simply 73.5% of his makes an attempt that day because the Chiefs rendered any Baltimore vast receiver not named Zay Flowers right into a non-factor. Kansas Metropolis was particularly dominant defending the slot, with All-Professional cornerback Trent McDuffie permitting a burn and an open receiver on solely one in every of 5 targets for the sport.
Having Mark Andrews on the sector for less than 18 performs within the AFC championship additionally didn’t assist Jackson’s trigger. The difference-making tight finish was nonetheless restricted by a severe ankle damage on the time, and there’s ample proof to assist the declare that the Ravens’ passing assault produces at an optimum degree when he’s wholesome and within the lineup.
Ravens Participant Projections
Lamar Jackson: 22.8 of 34.8 for 251.0 yards with 1.4 TDs and 0.4 INTs; 57.2 speeding yards
Derrick Henry: 14.8 rushes for 76.0 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Zay Flowers: 5.3 receptions for 58.0 yards with 0.3 touchdowns
Rashod Bateman: 3.1 receptions for 36.6 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Mark Andrews: 4.2 receptions for 56.2 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Baltimore led the NFL in open share (84.7) from Weeks 1-9 of final season, a giant think about Jackson finishing a superb 71.5% of his passes over that span. With Andrews out for six of the group’s closing 9 video games (together with playoffs), the Ravens’ open fee from Week 10 on dipped to 77.9% (sixteenth within the NFL throughout that timeframe) and Jackson’s completion share was a extra strange 61.6 for that interval.
Jackson’s one win over Kansas Metropolis occurred in 2021, a 36-35 comeback victory fueled by 251 speeding yards put up by the Ravens. Jackson accounted for 107 of these by himself, with almost all of that complete approaching designed runs.
Baltimore managed simply 81 yards on the bottom in final season’s AFC title sport, primarily as a result of it by no means really dedicated to working the ball at any level. The Ravens ran solely 9 true working performs all the sport and simply six of these had been handoffs to working backs, a one-dimensional technique that performed proper into the palms of a Kansas Metropolis protection that emphasizes slowing down the cross.
Anticipate the working backs to be significantly extra concerned for the underdogs on this rematch, particularly with Derrick Henry now on the Ravens’ roster. Baltimore intentionally diminished Jackson’s utilization as a runner final season to reduce the probabilities of its famous person sustaining one other devastating damage like those that minimize quick his 2021 and 2022 campaigns, so it’s crucial the offense comprises a viable complement to nonetheless one of many league’s most harmful scrambling quarterbacks.
Henry ought to be capable to nonetheless be that man even with the appreciable put on and tear he’s endured on his now 30-year-old physique – the dreaded age for NFL working backs – although the Purple Flock shouldn’t expect a reoccurrence of the unstoppable ball-carrying pressure he was throughout his heydays with the Tennessee Titans.
There’s certainly been a decline in Henry’s play since his sensible 2020 season during which he rushed for over 2,000 yards and was named NFL Offensive Participant of the 12 months, although that evident and unsurprising drop-off nonetheless isn’t something to be too alarmed over.
His yards after contact charges for each final season and the previous three nonetheless hover round league common and examine equally to who he’s changing because the Ravens’ main working again, Gus Edwards.
And though Henry displayed an absence of elusiveness in his closing run as a Titan – his missed/damaged deal with per contact common of .084 was the bottom of 37 backs with 150 or extra carries in 2023 – Edwards additionally emphasised energy over shiftability as a succesful north-south foil to Jackson and Baltimore’s speedier backs.
Henry will not be elite anymore, however he doesn’t should be in an offense during which he’s not the focus. Even when the Ravens find yourself getting a barely older, barely dearer model of Edwards, it ought to assist ease the burden on Jackson.
Can the Chiefs Carry the Huge Play Again?
The protection was sensational all all through the Chiefs’ newest march to a title, and it wanted to be as properly to assist decide up an offense that might be finest characterised as merely ok.
Mahomes’ 6.83 air yards per cross try in 2023 was the bottom of his six seasons as a full-time starter and among the many lowest of any No. 1 quarterback within the league, a byproduct of a passing sport that’s but to interchange the explosiveness it misplaced after buying and selling premier receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins two years in the past.
The deep ball was just about a non-existent factor of final season’s offense, with Mahomes connecting on simply 29.3% (17 of 58) throws of 21 or extra air yards with a mere one landing and a 47.0 passer score that lied in Bailey Zappe/P.J. Walker territory.
Because the chart beneath reveals, the Chiefs yearly ranked among the many NFL leaders in landing passes of no less than 21 air yards from 2018-21, when Hill was nonetheless round to stretch opposing defenses to the restrict.
Mahomes by no means had a passer score beneath 96.8 on long-distance throws in any of the 5 earlier seasons, so there’s cause to consider final yr’s poor numbers had been both an aberration or had been attributable to an inadequate supporting solid.
The entrance workplace is banking on the latter, because the Chiefs made it a prime offseason precedence to inject some wanted velocity and playmaking skill to the receiving corps with the additions of fleet-footed onetime Raven Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, who set an NFL mix file by working the 40-yard sprint in a blistering 4.21 seconds.
A part of that experiment figures to be examined immediately. With Brown set to overlook the opener resulting from a dislocated shoulder he sustained early within the preseason, Worthy appears to be line to see loads of snaps and doubtlessly a distinguished function in his NFL debut.
And the previous College of Texas standout might be as much as the problem based mostly on his restricted preseason work. Worthy was focused deep thrice in Kansas Metropolis’s Aug. 17 exhibition towards the Lions and got here down with two of these throws, one leading to a 39-yard achieve and the opposite a 22-yard landing.
Chiefs Participant Projections
Patrick Mahomes: 24.9 of 40.0 for 272.6 yards with 1.9 touchdowns and 0.9 interceptions
Isiah Pacheco: 16.4 rushes for 67.6 yards with 0.6 touchdowns
Rashee Rice: 5.4 catches for 69.9 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
Xavier Worthy: 2.9 receptions for 34.4 yards with 0.2 touchdowns
Travis Kelce: 4.8 receptions for 52.2 yards with 0.4 touchdowns
The Chiefs’ offense might be downright scary once more ought to Worthy instantly be capable to present the viable downfield menace it too usually lacked final season, because it ought to provide extra room for Mahomes’ most well-liked beneath choices of Kelce, Rashee Rice and presumably the back-in-the-fold JuJu Smith-Schuster to function.
And it’s not as if any of them really want the additional assist.
The Ravens had no reply for Kelce within the AFC title sport, as the longer term Corridor of Fame tight finish caught all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a landing to additional improve his standing as one of many NFL’s most legendary postseason performers.
Rice is coming off an impactful rookie marketing campaign during which he produced 79 catches, 938 yards and 7 touchdowns whereas instantly filling the function beforehand held by Smith-Schuster, who led all wideouts with no less than 50 targets in burn fee (73.7%) as a Chief through the 2022 common season. The veteran is now again in Kansas Metropolis following a forgettable one-year cease in New England marred by accidents and much much less steady quarterback play than Mahomes supplies.
2023 WRs WITH 50+ TARGETS OPEN PERCENTAGE
Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants (90.9)
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens (86.1)
Rashee Rice, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (85.3)
Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers (84.7)
Tank Dell, Houston Texans (84.0)
The 2023 Chiefs proved they will nonetheless win with an offense that clicked sporadically, although they left little room for error with their closing three postseason victories coming by a mixed margin of 13 factors.
Assuming the protection can no less than come near working finally season’s excessive degree, a historic third straight Tremendous Bowl victory appears properly inside attain if the massive performs that had been bountiful throughout Mahomes’ finest years develop into a factor as soon as once more.
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