Now that he has a 3rd NBA MVP trophy to placed on the shelf at residence beneath his horse-racing medals, the place precisely does Denver Nuggets heart Nikola Jokić rank within the all-timer debates? Is he already a top-20 participant? Can he get into the GOAT debate? What appears to be the doubtless endgame after we look again twenty years from now?
It’s maybe a tough time to have this dialogue given how Jokić’s final two video games have gone. However let’s pull again the digital camera, take a look at the larger image and ask how excessive a pedestal Jokić might land on when he lastly hangs up his sneakers. Luckily, I’ve acquired some instruments that assist us handicap this.
Let’s begin right here: By way of rating with the sport’s all-time greats, Jokić is already form of there. He received his third MVP award in 4 seasons Wednesday, bracketing a second-place end in 2023, placing him in uncommon firm with simply eight different gamers to win the trophy 3 times. It’s not but clear what would cease him from successful a fourth or a fifth, though voter fatigue has been a problem with different nice gamers.
Having already dominated the 2023 postseason, this award serves as Jokić’s official coronation into the Pantheon. He solely just lately turned 29 and has performed simply 9 NBA seasons, however in a hypothetical universe the place Jokić determined to finish his profession tomorrow and lift ponies or be taught to talk Minion or no matter, he would nonetheless have a powerful case as one of many high 20 gamers in NBA historical past.
Past that, his accumulation of quite a few different feats put him in extraordinarily uncommon firm. He’s notable for being the singular driving power behind a championship group, as in 2023, he turned one among solely 12 gamers to win a title with out an All-Star teammate (and is attempting to repeat that feat this 12 months).
And in contrast to a number of of the others on that record, no one in Denver’s 2023 playoff rotation had ever made the All-Star group. (Little-used backup heart DeAndre Jordan was their solely earlier All-Star.) Jokić is the one MVP to by no means have had an All-Star, All-NBA or All-Protection teammate in his first eight seasons, and he’s about to make it 9 if Aaron Gordon or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope don’t make second-team All-Protection.
Statistically, Jokić can be close to the highest of the mountain. Whereas my PER ranking isn’t legitimate for pre-1974 gamers similar to Invoice Russell and Wilt Chamberlain as a result of the league didn’t monitor blocked pictures and turnovers, within the 50 years since, Jokić has 4 of the highest 16 single-season PER marks, equivalent to his final 4 seasons. The nerdier field plus-minus (BPM) stat offers him a good rosier evaluation, crediting him with 4 of the highest six seasons within the final 50 years. Jokić presently has the single-season document for each PER (32.9) and BPM (13.7), each set in 2021-22. And within the playoffs, he’s dialed it up even additional, regardless of what occurred the final two video games in opposition to Minnesota: His 29.2 profession playoff PER is the best in NBA historical past.
In order that’s the backdrop; Nikola Jokić is actually good at basketball. (Thanks, Einstein.) However is his profession higher than that of, say, Stephen Curry or Dirk Nowitzki or Bob Pettit or no matter different randomly chosen nice participant you wish to identify?
Luckily, I’ve a software for that. I name it GOAT Factors, and I launched and defined it when The Athletic printed its record of the highest 75 NBA gamers of all time in 2021 and 2022, a listing Jokić was excluded from on the time. Once I first made this record, Jokić had but to win his second MVP award however was within the midst of an all-time season and ranked forty fourth in GOAT Factors even then. For sure, his final three seasons have seen him rack up a mountain of different accomplishments.
The truth is, once I up to date the GOAT Factors record after the season for our Basketball 100 e book (coming this winter to a bookstore close to you!), after pricing in a first-team All-NBA choice and MVP award, Jokić moved as much as twenty first, simply behind Jerry West and simply forward of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Successful NBA Finals MVP this 12 months (which appears a lot much less doubtless than it did just a few days in the past) would see him bounce West; in any other case, he’d nearly definitely do it subsequent season.
(Antetokounmpo, I ought to level out, is similar age as Jokić and was additionally superior this season; whereas he appears on a distinct profession trajectory proper now, it’s not out of the vary of chance that he may regain the lead on Joker sooner or later.)
What about when Jokic’s profession ends? That’s powerful to mission, clearly, however given the ranges on the all-time leaderboard (see chart under) there’s a very good probability he finally ends up twelfth. That will place him proper behind Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant and proper in entrance of Kevin Durant.
GOAT Factors, All-time Leaders
1
LeBron James
859
2
Michael Jordan
750
3
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
660
4
Tim Duncan
504
5
Karl Malone
504
6
Wilt Chamberlain
499
7
Larry Chicken
488
8
Magic Johnson
487
9
Invoice Russell
472
10
Shaquille O’Neal
460
11
Kobe Bryant
457
12
Kevin Durant
374
13
James Harden
356
14
Oscar Robertson
345
15
David Robinson
335
16
Kevin Garnett
324
17
George Mikan
320
18
Bob Pettit
318
19
Hakeem Olajuwon
316
20
Jerry West
316
21
* NIKOLA JOKIC *
308
22
Giannis Antetokounmpo
307
Jokić may transfer into twelfth on the finish of subsequent season if he had one other near-unanimous MVP season; extra realistically, two MVP-candidate-type seasons would doubtless do the trick. After that, nonetheless, there’s a troublesome mountain to climb to catch Shaq and Kobe. He’d be 31 by then and would nonetheless want a number of MVP-candidate-level seasons to bridge the 84-point hole between Durant and Bryant.
After all, I’m speaking about rating alone ranking system, however I do assume there’s a mirrored image right here of what real-life accomplishments will get a participant into the GOAT dialogue.
GOAT factors isn’t excellent; it nearly definitely overrates James Harden and Karl Malone and underrates Michael Jordan and Kevin Garnett, as an illustration. However within the larger image, the vital themes for Jokić’s place within the debate holds. Specifically, it’s simple to assume Jokić may simply form of glide right into a top-10 spot from right here, however that’s not true. One factor GOAT Factors doesn’t reward is “hanging round” years; even making the All-Star group is an especially minor, borderline irrelevant accomplishment if you’re coping with gamers of this caliber.
Notably, what the chart underlines is that, pretty much as good as Jokić has been over the past 4 years, he would want to do it for at the very least one other 4 to realistically sniff the fringes of the GOAT debate.
Relative to most gamers at this exalted stage, Jokić acquired a really late begin on his high-end accomplishments, not even making the All-Star group till he was practically 24 and solely successful 4 playoff sequence in his first seven seasons. He’s made up for misplaced time with an insane four-season run that rivals that of virtually any participant in historical past, however his endurance at this elite stage will now outline how excessive up the board he can transfer.
As an illustration, Jokić’s four-year run nonetheless pales compared with the league’s Mount Rushmore candidates. LeBron James had an 11-year run of being First Crew All-NBA and a top-five MVP candidate; Michael Jordan had 10 the place he was within the top-three in MVP voting and First Crew All-NBA, bracketing a two-year basketball hiatus.
Even the comparatively transient (for superstars) careers of Larry Chicken and Magic Johnson have Jokić beat on this entrance; each had nine-year runs of touchdown within the high three in MVP voting and making First Crew All-NBA.
For Jokić, then, his place in historical past now relies upon closely on how lengthy he can maintain this run. Different issues matter, too (like, um, championships, with a repeat presently beneath menace from the Minnesota Timberwolves), however longevity on the MVP-caliber stage is the query that may cling over every thing.
For now, we are able to say three issues about Jokić’s place in historical past.
First, there’s a complete class of all-time nice gamers he’s already left within the mud; any itemizing that doesn’t have him as one of many 30 greatest gamers of all time, at a minimal, is laughable. GOAT Factors underscores this: He’s now greater than 100 factors forward of Thirtieth-ranked John Stockton and Thirty first-place Elgin Baylor. I don’t assume an inexpensive particular person would conclude that both of these gamers can contact Jokić in an all-time rating, even when he retired tomorrow.
Second, Jokić could be very clearly on a trajectory to rank as one of many high 15 or so gamers ever. At this level, he’s pushing previous the league’s royalty, gunning for guys like Oscar Robertson and Garnett on the all-time record whereas he tries to carry off Giannis and catch Durant.
And third, moving into the true internal circle of all-time greats — the Birds and Magics, the Shaqs and Kobes — goes to take time. Jokić positively can get there, and including fourth and fifth MVP honor could be an especially sturdy argument in his favor. However to do it, he’ll must proceed at a dominant stage effectively into his 30s.
(Picture of Nikola Jokić: Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)