A month into the NBA season, Denver Nuggets celebrity Nikola Jokic is placing up numbers in contrast to another within the historical past of the league. He leads the league in rebounds per recreation (13.7 RPG) and assists (11.7 APG), which is critical as a result of no participant in NBA historical past has ever led the league in each rebounds and assists per recreation in a season.
As a bonus, Jokic can be tied for third within the league with 29.7 PPG — not far out of first in scoring, as properly.
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Jokic’s online game numbers and triple-double averages are nearly an excessive amount of to consider. However, on the finish of the season, will he nonetheless be the most efficient participant within the league? Whereas what we’re witnessing is one of the best we have ever seen from Jokic — and one of the vital productive seasons in league historical past — there may be nonetheless an opportunity that somebody tops it.
That is significantly true in fantasy basketball, the place defensive classes are sometimes weighted greater than offense, and it is there — on the defensive finish — the place there is a participant with the kind of upside we have not seen in generations.
That participant is Victor Wembanyama.
Wembanyama leads the NBA with 3.7 blocks per recreation after posting a league-leading 3.6 BPG as a rookie final season. Whereas Wemby began his sophomore season comparatively sluggish, by his requirements, he’s nonetheless barely forward of his Rookie of the Yr tempo, and his recreation appears to be bettering by the day.
So, can Wemby’s greatest be higher than one of the best we have ever seen from the Joker?
Jokic’s numbers have jumped to a complete new tier
Jokic has been named NBA MVP thrice prior to now 4 seasons and has been the main fantasy factors producer in all 4 seasons. Listed here are his stat strains in these 4 seasons, fantasy factors included:
SeasonPPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG2020-2126.5 (56.6 FG%, 86.8 FT%)10.88.30.71.31.358.62021-2227.1 (58.3 FG%, 81.0 FT%)13.87.90.91.51.361.72022-2324.5 (63.2 FG%, 82.2 FT%)11.89.80.71.30.860.42023-2426.4 (58.3 FG%, 81.7 FT%)12.49.00.91.41.162.6
So far this season, Jokic is means up throughout the board. He’s on career-best tempo in scoring, assists, blocks, steals and 3-pointers and inside a tenth of his career-high in rebounds per recreation.
SeasonPPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG2024-2529.7 (56.3 FG%, 84.3 FT%)13.711.71.01.72.272.9
On prime of that, he has elevated his quantity with no reducing of his capturing percentages, indicating his quantity enhance suits squarely inside his consolation zone with out pressure. This bodes properly for his potential to take care of this tempo over the course of a season.
And what a tempo. Jokic will not be solely producing greater than 10 extra fantasy factors per recreation than his career-best tempo from final season, however he is operating a whopping 15.1 FP/G greater than second place this season (Giannis Antetokounmpo, 57.8 FP/G).
Wembanyama is at present fifth within the NBA in fantasy factors per recreation at 53.2 FP/G, nearly 20 factors behind Jokic. With Jokic having this huge a bonus via the primary month, how might Wemby even make this aggressive?
Wemby’s potential this season
In his quick NBA profession, Wembanyama appears to be making a behavior of beginning “sluggish” earlier than settling in and taking part in to his degree. By way of his first 14 NBA video games final season as a rookie, Wembanyama produced very stable numbers.
PPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG18.6 (42.4 FG%, 78.2 FT%)9.12.52.61.01.538.1
However he was simply getting warmed up, settling into the NBA recreation. As soon as he was actually comfy, Wembanyama took his recreation to the subsequent degree. This is what he did throughout the subsequent 45 video games:
PPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG23.2 (48.1 FG%, 80.6 FT%)10.74.43.91.22.155.9
Wembanyama’s sophomore season appears to be following the identical sample, however at an accelerated price. By way of his first 9 video games this season, Wembanyama’s numbers look very like the beginning of his rookie season:
PPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG17.7 (41.3 FG%, 91.2 FT%)9.62.73.61.61.645.2
However beginning in recreation 10, Wemby discovered one other gear. And within the 4 video games since, his numbers have been much more aggressive with the Joker.
PPGRPGAPGBPGSPG3PPGFantasy PPG34.0 (56.0 FG%, 76.9 FT%)12.53.33.80.86.071.9
So, for the final week-plus, Wemby has been producing on the degree Jokic has produced for the final month. Two speedy questions spring to thoughts: 1) can Wemby keep this elevated tempo? And a couple of) Are we certain that even that is Wemby’s ceiling?
The place is Wemby’s ceiling?
For a participant that may do actually every thing on the basketball courtroom at anyplace from “excessive” to “by no means earlier than seen” ranges, what’s the upside? As a enjoyable train, let’s check out Wemby’s greatest single-game efficiency in every fantasy class via the primary month of the season and put it into one line:
Wemby sophomore bests: 50 factors, 20 rebounds, 7 assists, 9 blocks, 5 steals, 8 3-pointers.
Nobody would anticipate anybody, even Wembanyama, to provide numbers like this on an every-night foundation. However might he keep his 30+ PPG, 13 RPG averages whereas growing his assists again as much as the 5-7 per recreation ranges he achieved for stretches as a rookie? Might he maintain pulling down 3-pointers at close to league-leading tempo on stable effectivity? Might he up his blocks and steals nearer to extra like 5 BPG and a pair of SPG, numbers that will have as soon as been thought of legendary or inconceivable in as we speak’s recreation?
I consider the solutions to these questions are… sure. These are all achievable, doubtlessly constant upside objectives for Wembanyama this season. And if he achieves them, even the 72 FP/G he is averaged over the past week-plus could possibly be conservative.
Relaxation-of-season outlook
ESPN fantasy hoops drafts are nonetheless going robust, and new leagues will proceed drafting in massive numbers as much as and thru Christmas. For the whole drafting interval, together with throughout the common season, Jokic has been the consensus No. 1 total choose, with an ADP of 1.8. Wembanyama has been the consensus No. 2 choose, with an ADP of three.2. Each of these are truthful worth for the 2 most elite large man producers within the NBA.
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With that stated, if I’ve the highest choose in a draft now, simply as I did in my preseason drafts, I am taking Wembanyama No. 1 total. Jokic is having a season for the ages and makes a more-than-worthy prime total choose, but once more.
However Wembanyama is the kind of generational participant the place we simply do not know what could also be doable, at the same time as quickly as this season.
Each Jokic and Wemby have proven a capability to common within the low-70s of fantasy factors per recreation, with Jokic having established a month of this degree of manufacturing versus Wemby’s week-plus. Nonetheless, Wemby has now demonstrated he can attain peak-Jokic ranges of manufacturing, and he nonetheless has achievable upside.
So, whereas I would not blame anybody that wished to take the comparatively secure choose of Jokic on the prime of a fantasy hoops draft, for my groups the primary total fantasy hoops choose (no matter format) would nonetheless be Wembanyama.
